Washington St at Arizona St – Preview and Prediction
WASHINGTON ST 7 ARIZONA ST (64)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Washington St -8 Sagarin ratings -6.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Washington St 35.5 Arizona St 28.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Washington St 36 Arizona St 33
The Game
A couple of pretty good PAC 12 teams go head-to-head on Saturday night in Tempe. Washington St looks like a legit threat to the PAC 12 North crown and have started out with three big conference wins over Oregon, Stanford and UCLA. The Sun Devils started out red hot but have struggled in October losing two of their past three contests.
The Match-Up
Washington St offense vs Arizona St defense
This is as good of a match-up as you could possibly want. Arizona St is giving up 384 yards passing per game (!) which puts them dead last in the FBS. They are ranked #121 from a pass efficiency defense standpoint. Now they get to face the high-octane passing attack of the Washington St Cougars. Luke Falk is a fantastic QB who lit the Sun Devils up last season for 497 yards and 5 TDs. This year, the Cougars have a pretty decent running game to go along with that passing attack. They feature a 3-headed monster at RB (Morrow, Williams, Wicks) who have 15TD rushing and over 800Y on the ground. Arizona St has been decent against the run (3.68 YPC allowed – 2nd PAC 12) when teams have chosen to run the ball, but we have to believe that the Cougars focus on ripping apart the Arizona St secondary. Prognosis: Points.
Arizona St offense vs Washington St defense
Starting QB Manny Wilkins is listed as probable for this game. He will definitely be limited in terms of mobility, and for the Sun Devils, that is a huge key to the offense that will not be firing on all cylinders. The ground game has disappeared recently for Arizona St as they have averaged less than 70 yards per game rushing over the past three contests. And look. Here comes the #1 run defense in the PAC 12 in terms of rushing yards allowed per game (#3 YPC – 3.7). This is a bad match-up for the Sun Devils who can throw the football but are a run-focused offense that is not “running” right now. If Wilkins is unable to continue, it should be noted that their 2nd and 3rd string QBs are BOTH out for the season and they would have to turn to a true freshman.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
Washington St has lost 6 straight games in Tempe and have not won there since the turn of the century…..The Cougars have scored 27,28,42 on good defenses….42,51,56 on poor defenses….Arizona St’s D is in BUCKET #2.
Summary
Washington St historically struggles in Tempe. Got it.
Everything else points to a big Washington St win. Consider the following in addition to the long-winded write-up above…..1) Washington St plays better on the road (at least recently)….They were 5-1 ATS during the regular season away from home in 2015 and also won and covered their neutral site bowl game….This year they almost beat Boise (lost by 3 – covered) and destroyed Stanford. 2) Which team has been OUTGAINED 2183-1231 in their past four games while going 2-2 ? Charlotte ? UMass ? UTEP ? NO – Arizona St. Amaze your backstabbing co-workers with that factoid.
Washington St is really good. Arizona St is struggling. The Sun Devils have a shot but would seem to need a big edge in turnovers and/or multiple instances of special teams heroics.
Conclusion
Official play: Washington St -7 -110 (play up to -7 -125)