California at USC – Preview and Prediction
USC 14.5 CAL (70.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – USC -13 Sagarin ratings -12.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: USC 42.5 Cal 28
Massey Ratings Projected Score: USC 44 Cal 34
The Game
USC looks to continue the roll they are on when they face the Cal Golden Bears on Thursday night in Los Angeles. The Trojans have won their last three games by a combined score of 110-51 and have been a lot more effective on offense since Sam Darnold took over at QB. Cal is coming off a 2-OT win vs Oregon but have yet to win a true road game this season (51-31 win vs Hawaii neutral site; 0-3 true road games)
The Match-Up
USC offense vs Cal defense
The Trojans’ offense has hit its stride in the past month and have a nice run/pass balance going on right now. QB Sam Darnold has thrown for 13 TD vs only 2 INT this year and has also ran for a couple of scores. Cal’s defense is ranked #121 in the FBS and has given up 96 points the past two games (one was 2-OT). The Trojans should be able to mix things up and score fairly easily provided that they do not turn the ball over.
Cal offense vs USC defense
The Golden Bears have scored 40+ points in every game other than the home date vs Utah (28). They have also given up 40+ in 5/7 games and need the offense to be firing on all cylinders in order to keep this game close. Cal can run the ball but are much more effective MATRICULATING in the passing game. QB Davis Webb has 27 TD passes already this season and will need to have a great game to give Cal a shot. WR Chad Hansen is listed as questionable (leading receiver with all-universe hands) and it would be wise to follow the news and make sure that he is a go if you plan on backing the Golden Bears. USC is ranked mid-pack in the PAC 12 in pass defense efficiency BUT they have not faced many decent air attacks.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
USC has won 12 straight games in this series….The under is 10-2 the last 12 times these two teams have met…..USC definitely in a better spot off a bye and Cal coming off and OT game.
Summary
USC is always a popular team to back and it finally seems that the market has made it difficult to back them. The Trojans are definitely a better team on paper but it is always a tricky proposition to lay 14+ vs Cal especially when this is a rivalry game.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: None.