Duke at Georgia Tech – Preview and Prediction
GEORGIA TECH 6 DUKE (50)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Georgia Tech -4.5 Sagarin ratings – Georgia Tech -6.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Georgia Tech 28 Duke 22
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Georgia Tech 27 Duke 20
The Game
This is a very under-the-radar ACC game for BOWL ELIGIBILITY SURVIVAL. Ok, not really, but sort of. Kinda. Duke is sitting at 3-4 and if they lose this one they would need to win three of their final four games against VT, UNC, Pitt and Miami. Probably not going to happen. Duke has made four straight bowl games and it is a big deal to keep the momentum going. Georgia Tech has a record of 4-3 and would also be in a bit of a pickle if they lost this one. They also have a difficult schedule remaining. Buckle up.
The Match-Up
Georgia Tech offense vs Duke defense
It is pretty simple. Georgia Tech needs to go back to being the running machine of past seasons. In 2014 they ran for 342 yards per game. Last season they rushed for 256/game and in 2016 they are averaging just 234/contest. They do not have a game breaker at WR to take the top off the defense and are missing the game breakers in the running game to really scare opposing defenses. They are still going to move the ball but are a tough team to back when giving close to a TD.
Duke held the Yellow Jackets run game in check last season. They also did a fine job against the Army rushing attack in a 13-6 win. We have read a lot about a secret recipe they may have, but realistically, if Georgia Tech had the weapons of a couple of years ago it would be a different story. In any event, the Duke defense has been pretty solid overall and are ranked near the top of the ACC in turnovers gained (14). Clemson has 16.
Duke offense vs Georgia Tech defense
The Blue Devils have been breaking in a new QB this season and Daniel Jones definitely looks like a keeper. He is making some mistakes (9 TD vs 8 INT) but can definitely MATRICULATE down the field for big yards if given enough time. Georgia Tech has a problem with PENETRATION as they are ranked in the bottom two of the ACC in sacks and TFL per game. Duke does enough with the running game to keep things interesting, but overall, it is not a ground attack to be greatly feared. Georgia Tech has given up 26,35,37,24 the last four games.
MEGA MINUTIA
Duke has won the last two meetings 34-20 and 31-25….The Yellow Jackets are 4-11-1 ATS L16 overall…Duke is 9-3 ATS L12….Ga Tech is yielding 49.5% conversions on 3rd down.
Summary
This feels like a game that could go either way. Duke has proven recently that they can stop the option attacks of Ga Tech and Army. We expect turnovers to be the difference in this game like it is in so many other contests. The points seem generous.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: MEGALOCKS EARLY TASTER CLUB members got a sampling of Duke +8.5….Not sure we would grab them at less than a TD. Would prefer to take the GT team total under or game total under at this point for small potatoes.