Michigan at Michigan St – Preview and Prediction
MICHIGAN 23.5 MICHIGAN ST (54)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Michigan -21 Sagarin ratings – Michigan -28
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Michigan 38.75 Michigan St 15.25
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Michigan 42 Michigan St 17
The Game
Wow. Who would have thought at the beginning of the season that Michigan would be more than a 3 TD favorite on the road vs Sparty ? Michigan has been working with a very kind schedule but have been absolutely demolishing pretty much everything in their path. Meanwhile, Michigan St has lost five straight games and looked pretty awful doing it. We won’t bother telling you that this one could get ugly because everyone has probably told you that by now.
The Match-Up
Michigan offense vs Michigan St defense
Michigan has been scoring a lot of points this season against some pretty bad defenses. Hey, they get to face another weak defense when they travel to East Lansing on Saturday. Their defense and special teams has also jumped in on the fun. They have a bruising rushing attack to go along with an efficient passing game. Since their opening week win against Furman, the Spartans have given up 28,30,24,31,54,28. They do not have a enough talent, and in addition, they are not getting enough PENETRATION (last in Big 10 sacks per game, 2nd last in TFL per game). Prognosis: Devastation.
Michigan St offense vs Michigan defense
The starting QB is still going to be a game time decision according to MEGALOCKS TOP SECRET BIG 10 INSIDERS. In our simple world, regardless of what the season looks like now, you have to play senior Tyler O’Connor ? Don’t you ? It seems unfair to throw anyone else to the wolverines. O’Connor has completed 61% of his passes and thrown 11 TD vs 6 INT. Yes, he has made mistakes, but the defense is the problem. The running game to have trouble doing much against the brick wall Michigan D. They will have to keep at it, throw some short passes and maybe take a deep shot or two on unusual downs. They are going to need some big chunk plays.
Michigan is #1 in the FBS in scoring defense and total defense (207 yards per game allowed) and even when accounting for their laughable schedule that is mighty impressive. Our favorite stat tho is their 3rd down defense (also ranked #1) which is only allowing 13% conversions ! Incredible. And incredibly unfortunate for Sparty.
MEGA MORSELS
Michigan St is 8-0L8 ATS vs Michigan…..not saying just saying…..Michigan games are 13-3 to the over L16…..Michigan has allowed 10,7,0,8 in four Big 10 games so far…..Do NOT forget how Michigan St won the game vs Michigan last season in one of the most insane plays in recent memory…..We highly doubt that Jim Harbaugh has let that slip his mind.
Summary
We really try to avoid NARRATIVE STREET when handicapping. Michigan would love to put an epic beating on the Spartans after last season’s debacle. The reality is – they probably have the team – and the opponent – to do just that. Mark Dantonio did not forget how to coach. This is just not a very good team.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Michigan -23.5 or better. Michigan TT over any number less than 40.