Navy at South Florida – Preview and Prediction

Navy at South Florida – Preview and Prediction

SOUTH FLORIDA 7.5 NAVY (63)

MEGALOCKS LINE – South Florida -4          Sagarin ratings – South Florida -6.5

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: South Florida 35.25 Navy 27.75

Massey Ratings Projected Score: South Florida 38 Navy 34

The Game

Well that escalated quickly. Just when it looked like Houston was like Alabama (but better) and their HC was off to become the head man at Ohio St AND Michigan at the same time, the Cougars imploded and LOOKIE LOOKIE the Navy Midshipmen are the only undefeated team in the AAC. If Navy can win this game it pretty much locks up a spot in the conference title game given the schedules that every team has remaining. The Bulls are in a 3-way tie with one loss in the AAC East and can still find their way to the title game but can probably not afford a second conference loss.

It’s Friday night AAC action, let’s roll !

The Match-Up

South Florida offense vs Navy defense

The Bulls will have to provide some serious SHOCK AND AWE when they have the football because Navy is likely to control the time of possession in a major way. They cannot turn it over. And they need to score TDs. If we believe HC Taggart, QB Quinton Flowers is ready to go after tweaking his hamstring last week. They will need him to be as close to full strength as possible because it is his running ability that makes the entire offense work. Assuming he is 100% healthy, the Bulls are definitely going to score some points (#21 offense FBS). Navy is scrappy but have given up 28,40,28 the last three games.The Bulls can score on anybody. They need to be efficient as possible.

Navy offense vs South Florida defense

Whoa. QB Will Worth has turned into quite the option QB. He has four TD passes in his last two games to go along with over 300Y rushing (over 200 vs Memphis). The running game is humming on all cylinders since the Air Force debacle and boy do they look like a handful. South Florida just got finished being steamrolled for over 300 yards by Temple. Prognosis: Bad matchup.

MEGA-MAZEMENT !

The over is 7-1 L8 South Florida home games….The over is 9-3 L12 Navy games overall…..Navy is number #1 in the FBS taking the fewest penalty yards….So Flo is #10 in their own conference….W Worth is the leading rusher on Navy….the next 5 guys are all averaging over SEVEN yards a carry. Oh boy.

Summary

South Florida can win this game (duh ?) but it seems like a tall order to ask them to separate from Navy and win by close to double digits. Navy is playing their best football right now. We do not think that is the case for South Florida.

Conclusion

Official play: Navy +7.5  (there are currently some +8 out there; Do not play lower than +7 -120)