Nebraska at Wisconsin – Preview and Prediction
WISCONSIN 8.5 NEBRASKA (43)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Wisconsin -6.5 Sagarin ratings – Wisconsin -7.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Wisconsin 25.75 Nebraska 17.25
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Wisconsin 21 Nebraska 14
The Game
This is a big test for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have started the season with an impressive 7-0 mark and can really take a stranglehold on the Big 10 West with a victory on Saturday night. The Wisconsin schedule has been almost unfairly difficult. Now they get a “week off” to face a talented and confident Nebraska team. Wisconsin can still make noise in the Big 10 West if they win out. Both teams are beat up. This could be yet another classic BIG 10 SNOT BUBBLER.
The Match-Up
Wisconsin offense vs Nebraska defense
This is not going to be easy for the Badgers. Nebraska has been good against the run this season and are still ranked #27 in the FBS despite playing Oregon and more than a few high-octane RBs. RB Corey Clement has certainly looked a lot better in recent weeks but the Badgers are going to have to find something else on offense if they want to win this game. QB Alex Hornibrook has looked better to us than the stats would indicate (5 TD 6 INT) and kept them in the game vs Michigan and Ohio St and beat Iowa on the road. Bart “Matt” Houston also gets some reps at QB. Here is the problem. The Nebraska pass defense is the 3rd most efficient in the Big 10 (Michigan, Ohio St) and they have played some decent QBs. The Huskers have only allowed 6 TD passes all season and have 13 interceptions. The Badgers might be able to grind out some drives if they consistently convert on 3rd down but Nebraska is going to make them earn everything they get on Saturday night.
Nebraska offense vs Wisconsin defense
Another tough match-up. It is a battle that became a lot more interesting this week as the Badgers announced that leading tackler LB Jack Cichy is out for the season and NT Sagapolu will not go on Saturday. There a lot of other defensive players listed on the injury report but it is probably a smoke screen. The Nebraska OL has not been super healthy all season. The Badgers’ defense is outstanding and are going to give the Huskers fits. They are only allowing 25% conversions on 3rd down which is another interesting story to keep an eye on because Corn is excellent on 3rd downs (#12 FBS – 49%).
QB Tommy Armstrong has a bit of mobility which the Huskers can use to their advantage. Armstrong has a bit of an ankle thing going on, and let’s be honest, he is not getting a lot of rushing yards on Saturday. However, he just needs to pick up the odd first down with his legs and that could mean the difference in the game or the cover.
The match-up that we think makes the difference is the Nebraska passing game vs the Wisconsin defense. 19th year senior QB Tommy Armstrong (did he face Tom Brady at Michigan ?) makes some mistakes but also has the ability to MATRICULATE in the passing game. The Corn receiving group is pretty healthy for this week and the top-4 WR all average 15+ yards per catch. Nebraska is also #1 in the Big 10 in sacks allowed per game. There are going to be some deep shots there for the taking. Wisconsin has not faced anyone with a decent passing attack (Akron ? Michigan ?) and could be in for a nasty surprise.
MEGA MINUTIA
Amaze your CLOSET DEGENERATE MASSEUSE with this gem……In the fourth quarter this season the Cornhuskers have beat their opponents on the scoreboard by a score of 98-13….Say what you want about the schedule but that shows the ability to make adjustments at halftime and close out games…..Wisconsin has won the last two games vs Nebraska 23-21 and 59-24.
Summary
Nebraska has played a MUCH easier schedule than Wisconsin. We get it. We respect that. Wisconsin has played a meat grinder of a schedule (LSU, Ohio St, Michigan, Iowa) and have the injury list to prove it. Nebraska is “relatively” healthy. That makes a big difference in this match-up. Attrition matters.
Nebraska has allowed more than 22 points only once this season. Their defense is really good. That alone makes catching 9 points attractive. We also think they are more likely to make plays in the passing game and in the return game.
Conclusion
Official play: Nebraska +9 -110