Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh – Preview and Prediction
VIRGINIA TECH 4.5 PITTSBURGH (56.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Virginia Tech -3.5 Sagarin ratings – Virginia Tech -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Virginia Tech 30.5 Pittsburgh 26
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Virginia Tech 34 Pittsburgh 31
The Game
The Hokies look to take a HAMMER LOCK on the ACC Coastal Division on Thursday night when they travel to face the Pitt Panthers. Virginia Tech, UNC and Pitt all have one conference loss, but the Hokies would be in great shape with a win in this game. Pitt would also look good if they can pull off a victory, however, they still have games at Miami and at Clemson. They also lost to UNC. Yikes ! The important thing to note is that this game is yuuuuge.
The Match-Up
Virginia Tech offense vs Pitt defense
The Hokies offense works when they get the run game going #HotTake. The problem is that the Pitt defense is ranked #5 in the NCAA in run defense (97 yards allowed per game) AND they have played Georgia Tech. The Panthers are also devastating when rushing the passer (#4 FBS in sacks) and the secondary cleans up a lot of mistakes to create interceptions, field position and TDs.
We are still yuuuuge fans of Virginia Tech QB Jerod Evans who has still only thrown 2 INT all season (!) whilst throwing for 19 TDs. That puts him in the top 10 in passing efficiency in the FBS. The issue we see is CAN he handle the pass rush of the Panthers ? They need to stay out of 3rd and long.
Pitt offense vs Virginia Tech defense
Can the Hokies stop the punishing Panthers’ rushing attack ? It is strength against strength as the #20 rushing attack goes against the #11 run defense. The problem is that we have seen the Panthers win this battle in years’ past and wonder why it will be different this season. QB Nathan “Jake” Peterman is very annoying to tackle when he chooses to scramble and we can see him picking up a couple of key first downs. The Pitt passing attack is dangerous if they can establish the run game. Peterman is also an efficient passer.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
The Hokies are 1-8 L9 ATS vs Pitt….1-3 ATS since 2012…..The Panthers are just 5-17 L22 ATS at home so we will let TREND GUY figure out what to make of that mess…..Pitt has had an extra bit of time off with the bye week coming at a nice time but the Hokies played last Thursday night and that neutralizes the advantage somewhat.
Summary
This is a really tough game to handicap. We will like the Hokies are the better team but the Panthers seem to have their number and match up pretty well. And you have to lay more than a FG.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Under any number 56 or better.