Gasparilla Bowl – Marshall vs USF
The Game
You can never get enough Gasparilla!
Raymond James Stadium will be the venue this year as Marshall takes on South Florida on the Bulls home field. Marshall sits with a record of 8-4 but only managed to notch a victory over one bowl team (FIU) during the campaign. South Florida started out on SUPAH HOT FIRE (7-0) but went in the dumpster and lost their last five (!) regular season games. The Bulls also managed just a single win vs bowlers (Georgia Tech). Can South Florida rise like a PHOENIX from the ashes and stop their losing streak? Let’s take a look at how these teams stack up.
The Details
Marshall -2.5 USF (54.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Marshall -1.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Marshall 28.5 USF 26
The Match-Up:
Marshall offense vs USF defense
It’s a bit ugly, but it works for the most part. The Herd are ranked #80 in total offense (#85 rushing, #65 passing) and have had a lot of trouble in the red zone (#115 FBS). Redshirt freshman QB Isaiah Green has had his ups and downs (15 TDs but 10 INT) and battled injuries during the middle of the season. His #1 target in this game will be senior WR Tyre Brady who is a good bet to go over 1,000 yards for the season in this contest (914, 9 TD). The good news for South Florida is that they are pretty good defending the pass (54.6% completions, 11 INT) and will make it difficult on Green to MATRICULATE the ball down the field in the THROW GAME. The bad news for the Bulls? Their run defense is atrocious (#121 FBS) and Marshall should be able to have a big day on the ground. They rumbled for 232 yards rushing vs Virginia Tech in their final game (6.63 YPC) and RB Brenden Knox accounted for 204. Overall we think that the Marshall implied team total looks about right and they have the ability to exceed it UNLESS they are careless with the football. They had 24 giveaways this year (next to last in C-USA) so it’s not like that is out of the realm of possibility.
USF offense vs Marshall defense
The time off had to have helped starting QB Blake Barnett get ready for this game. He has battled injuries for a good portion of the season and the back-up QB situation is pretty sketchy. As far as Barnett goes he completed 62% of his passes but had a mediocre 11-11 TD to INT ratio. The WR is decent but not spectacular. Four different players have bagged a TD reception of 60+ yards and they have a good receiving TE in Mitchell Wilcox (40-506, 2 TD). In order for the passing game to work they will need to get their fine RB combo of Jordan Cronkite and Johnny Ford rolling as they have combined for over 1,800 yards rushing and 17 TDs, although most of that damage was done against the weaker teams on their docket. Marshall is really stingy defending the run (#9 FBS) and also feature the ability to get PENETRATION (39 sacks – T9 FBS). The Bulls will have to work for whatever they get but definitely have enough firepower to win this game. It will come down to (not a shocker) taking care of the football and bagging TDs in the red zone.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The sports world was saddened to hear that this game was moved from the wonderful TROPICANA FIELD…….not really…….Marshall HC Doc Holliday is an impressive 5-0 in bowl games……South Florida is 6-3 in bowl games (4-1 L5) and HC Charlie Strong has a career 4-3 SU mark in the postseason.
Summary
It’s hard to call out a wager on South Florida is this one. Marshall is a proven bowl JUGGERNAUT under HC Holliday and have a much better defense. We worry about the charity that Marshall consistently provides in terms of turnovers and their body of work which was really not that impressive. Yes, USF tanked down the stretch, but when you are the favorite it’s a bit more of a handicapping concern. And will USF benefit from playing close to home in Tampa?
Conclusion
Official play: None yet.
Side: Lean to Marshall.
Total: Lean to the under.
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.