College Football Predictions – Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 5-6
ATS – 7-3-1
The Jackets missed out on the post-season for the second time in three years as they lost four of their final five games. Sure, you can’t have expected them to beat Clemson or Georgia, but Virginia and Duke were right in their WHEELHOUSE and they could not convert. They had a couple of painfully close calls starting in week one when they somehow lost in 2-OT after rolling up 655 (!) yards of offense. Later in the season they had YOUR Miami Hurricanes dead to rights but lost 25-24 after a clutch 4th down conversion.
Surely things will get back to normal this season. Right?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Coastal Division – Tied #4
ACC – Tied #7
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Yellow Jackets rolled up 300+ yards rushing per contest for the first time since the 11-win season in 2014. The bad news? The passing game was atrocious and they could only scrape together 84 passing yards per game (#128 FBS) whilst completing just 36% of their attempts (#129 FBS). Yes, we realize that this is a heavy run-based offense, but they have been most successful when being able to connect on a few big pass plays every game to keep teams honest. Senior QB TaQuon Marshall rushed for over 1,100 yards last season and 17 TDs (!) and just needs to improve his accuracy a bit to really make the offense hum. The RB group is loaded and are going to be a handful for their opponents. KirVonte Benson rushed over 1,000 yards in 2017 and there a couple of home-run hitters in the group. The offensive line returns three starters to a group that did a good job last season.
Georgia Tech hasn’t topped 30 PPG since 2014 (28.1 LY) and we see them easily blowing past that benchmark in 2018.
DEFENSE
The defense was sneaky good last year finishing #33 in the FBS in total defense (354 YPG). This year they only return five starters to the stop unit but the DL has every starter back and last year’s leading tackler LB Victor Alexander is back in the fold. There are two big concerns. We worry about a secondary that is in complete reload mode (no returning starters) and an overall lack of PENETRATION. They have not recorded 20 or more sacks since 2014 (!) when they bagged, wait for it, 20.
There is reason for optimism as Georgia Tech has secured the services of former Appalachian St DC Nate Woody who did excellent work with the Mountaineers.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The group was pretty much average across the board last year but returns everyone in 2018. Their best weapon appears to be P Pressley Harvin who had a fine 39.7 net last year as a freshman.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s tough, but not impossible. They draw Clemson and finish with Georgia. That’s not cool. All other ten games are winnable including a road test at Virginia Tech and home game vs Miami.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Virginia (November 17). This is a classic Miami / Georgia sandwich situation and Cavaliers’ HC Bronco Mendenhall knows a thing or two about how to defend the option.
Season Win Total
Over 6 -110
Under 6 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. There are some tough games to deal with but it doesn’t seem like a stretch to see them scrap together seven wins.
MEGAmazing Minutia
MEGA moments in history…………<gather your family around the campfire for story time>
John Heisman (yes, THAT Heisman) was a coaching legend at Georgia Tech in the early 1900s. It’s hard to forget the 222-0 drubbing of Cumberland in 1916 in which every Georgia Tech first down was achieved via TD. Cumberland finished with ZERO first downs.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the YELLOW JACKETS a 7.0 ATS Value Rating (Good) this season.
Interviewer – “What’s your prediction for the fight?”
Clubber Lang – “My prediction?”
Interviewer – “Yes, your prediction”
Clubber Lang – “Pain.”
Sometimes those theatrical gems from Rocky 3 can give you a good idea of what to expect when the Yellow Jackets play teams with weak run defenses. The Jackets should be able to rip teams apart with the rushing attack and just need to figure out how to hit wide open receivers when they choose to pass. We like the addition of DC Nate Woody and think that Georgia Tech can be a money-maker if the defense can just be “average” during the course of the season.
HC Paul Johnson has only had three losing seasons vs the point spread in the past 10 years. While it is true that they finished up last season with a 7-3-1 mark vs Vegas, REGRESSION TO THE MEAN GUY is sadly mistaken if he thinks it’s a mathematical certainty that will be unable to make money in 2018. We say put them on the watch list to start the season.
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NEWS
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http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/georgia-tech-yellow-jackets
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