Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 2019 College Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 2019 College Football Preview

2018 Recap

Record – 8-6

ATS – 5-9

The Rainbow Warriors got off to a great start winning six of their first seven games. Those wins didn’t come against the best competition on the planet BUT we give them full marks for getting off the mark in such an impressive fashion. They hit a rough patch after the mid-point of the season but pulled off a SWEET road upset of San Diego St in their regular season finale. They were no match for Louisiana Tech in the Hawaii Bowl but eight wins is much better than most observers and fans could have expected.

Is it possible to challenge for a division title in 2019?


2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

West Division – #3

Mountain West – #6


Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 2019 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Rainbow Warriors slowed down in the second half of the season but still managed to put up 30.8 PPG last year. The offense should be even better with junior QB Cole McDonald back for duty coming off a rock solid season in which he threw for over 3,800 yards and 36 (!) TDs. McDonald also displayed excellent mobility and kept defenses honest. The WR group is one of the best in the conference even with the departure of #1 man John Ursua to the NFL (Seahawks). They have a lot of dangerous options remaining including 2nd Team MW honoree Cedric Byrd (79-970, 9 TD LY).

The rushing attack is a bit of an afterthought in this offense but they have the most depth we have seen in some time at RB. The offensive line play was atrocious last season (46 sacks allowed, #129 FBS) but five starters (!) are back and there is no reason why they can’t make a fairly dramatic improvement.

Hawaii has the potential to be extremely potent and looks like one of the best offenses in the Mountain West.

DEFENSE

We have to be honest. The last four years have been pretty disgusting on this side of the ball. For four consecutive years the Rainbow Warriors have allowed 34+ PPG, 200+ rushing yards and 61%+ completions.

This should be the year when things finally turn around as there are nine returning starters and a small handful of legitimate playaaaas. The DL looks especially promising as they have good size and a lot of experience, and DE Kaimana Padello is a star (8.5 sacks LY). The LB unit brings back leading tackler Solomon Matautia and the secondary returns a bunch of starters including a pair of safeties and excellent CB Rojesterman Farris who notched an impressive 11 PBUs in 2018. Another reason for optimism is a pass rush that bagged 30 sacks a season ago (#4 MW).

The Rainbow Warriors allowed 35.1 PPG last year and we will be disappointed if they don’t finish close to the 30 PPG mark this year.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The kicking game is in good shape. PK Ryan Meskell nailed 15/18 FG attempts last year and P Stan Gaudon had a fine 38 yard net. The return units could use a bit more spice.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – Things get real right away as they face THREE PAC-12 opponents to start the season. Arizona and Oregon St (both at home) are in their area code but the trip to Washington is nasty. The conference slate isn’t easy, but it’s fair.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing noted.

Season Win Total

Over 5.5 -125

Under 5.5 +105

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean to the ‘over’. This team is just as talented as the 2018 version and they should be able to bag six wins. <Note: they play 13 games>

MEGAmazing Tidbits

The NCAA permits Hawaii to play thirteen games during the regular season to recoup its unusually high travel costs. This rule was modified before the 2016 season; Hawaii is now open to play before Labor Day Weekend (during FCS Kickoff Week). The exemption was modified to avoid a 13-game schedule with no bye weeks. The team’s opponents who play at Hawaii each season are also allowed one more game than their normal limit. Impress BILL FROM ACCOUNTING at the next company picnic with those trivia nuggets.


MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Positive

Hawaii looks better on both sides of the ball this year. The offense is going to be a handful and they will make positive strides on defense give the talent they have at DL and LB. The schedule is a bit of a bear, but there are more than enough chances to win games and get back to a bowl game. Anything more ambitious than that may not be in the cards. Then again…….

Hawaii has been a disappointment ATS over the past ten years posting a mark of 42.5% vs Vegas over that time horizon. In three years of the Nick Rolovich era they are just 13-25-2 (34%). REGRESSION TO THE MEAN GUY must be frothing at the mouth, and even though he doesn’t understand statistics all that well, we concur that Hawaii could be set up for a profitable season at the windows. 


Want more Hawaii Football ?

WEBSITE

http://www.hawaiiathletics.com/index.aspx?path=football

FORUM

http://www.sportshawaii.com/sh/viewforum.php?f=3

https://247sports.com/college/hawaii/Board/WSN-Ohana-102452/

NEWS

http://hawaiiwarriorworld.com/category/football/

http://bleacherreport.com/hawaii-warriors-football

http://www.mwcconnection.com/hawaii-warriors-football

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/hawaii-warriors

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/sports/ncaa/hawaii/

TWITTER

Hashtag – #HawaiiFB

Accounts to follow

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