Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 2023 College Football Preview
June 27, 2023
2022 Recap
Record – 3-10
ATS – 9-4
Timmy Chang’s first season as HC was a struggle as expected. They were bad on offense, really bad on defense, and lost ten games as a result. However, Hawaii did manage to hold their own to some extent when playing at home. They won two of three conference home games (Nevada, UNLV) and only lost to Wyoming by 7 points. Small victories, but victories nonetheless.
Let’s see what’s in store for Hawaii in 2023.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 2023 Outlook
OFFENSE
The offense was MEH on the ground LY (137 YPG, #87 FBS) and even worse when attempting to MATRICULATE the ball down the field thru the air (#99). QB Brayden Schager showed flashes of ability and we like the fact that he got to attempt 400 passes (13-10 TD to INT). That experience should pay dividends in 2023. The WR/TE situation is a bit murky given that nobody with more than 30 receptions or 350 receiving yards is back for duty but we suspect that a decent set of options will emerge. There doesn’t appear to be a game-changer on board but we’ll see how things go. Two of their top-three RBs are retained including Tylan Hines who averaged an eye-popping 7.6 YPC LY (634, 2 TD). Just a pair of starters are retained up front and they’ve got to work in a pair of new starting tackles. It’s not gonna be a potent offense by any stretch of the imagination but they’ll do a bit more damage this year.
DEFENSE
Hawaii allowed 112 points in their first two games and struggled all year (#117 FBS total defense, #123 scoring defense). They also had significant PENETRATION issues (17 sacks, #120). There’s reason for optimism this year as Hawaii brings back 9 starters including four of their top-five tacklers. The DL looks to be in better shape and they’ve got a solid LB combo in Logan Taylor (#1 tackler) and Isaiah Tufaga. Basically everyone returns on the back end of the defense and they’ve added some talented transfers. There’s a long way to go, but it’s clear that they’ll be improved in defense this season.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Matthew Shipley did a good job in the PK department LY (16-20 FG) but it’s unclear whether or not he will fulfill the punting duties in 2023 (36.7 net LY). Hawaii definitely needs some additional spice in the return game (#123 FBS PR, #128 KR).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The non-conference schedule isn’t too bad as there’s only one automatic loss in there (at Oregon). It’s great to see that they miss Boise St and Fresno St in Mountain West action. Note that they play 13 games.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – New Mexico St (Sept 23)
The Aggies are gonna be pretty decent this year and this test pops up right before conference play starts. DEGENERATE NATION reminds you that Hawaii is 8-22-1 ATS L10Y as a home favorite, so if they are indeed laying points, this might be a spot to FADE DAT AZZ.
Season Win Total
Market Consensus June 27
Over 3.5 -135
Under 3.5 +115
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
Our 23 models have run 89,400 simulations and the most common outcome is four or five wins.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Hawaii has been decent at home over the L10Y (35-33) but they’ve resembled PURE FILTH when playing on the road (14-44). Moneyline players, take note, yo.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
The FIGHTING TULSI GABBARDS are going to play a better brand of football this year. This is still a work in progress but they look improved on both sides of the football in year two of the Timmy Chang regime. It’s too much to expect a bowl appearance but we’ll call for four or five wins and one major upset along the way. Go Hawaii!