Hope everyone is hanging in there and that all is well with family and friends. For those who wish to partake in a little sweet thoroughbred racing action we have assembled some thoughts for today’s Oaklawn Park card.
The racing is competitive at Oaklawn Park and the field sizes are excellent. The handicapping challenge is DAUNTING here but note that the payoffs are among the best in North America on a consistent basis.
Make sure to listen to Nancy Holthus who does a fine job with the analysis!
Best of luck if you take a stab or two! Play safe and have fun.
Race 1
Most likely winner – #4 P R Radio Star
Value pick – #8 Around the Dial
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #1 Drc All Inclusive
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says……#4 P R Radio Star is razor sharp having won two races in a row whilst posting a pair of impressive figs….Note that he is allowed in this race under the conditions given that one of those wins came in a contest in which he was listed for just 12,500….Fun with numbers….He moves into the excellent Diodoro barn which has been deadly off the claim at the Oaklawn meet…..12/37 (32%) and profitable from an ROI perspective in that situation across the board (win-place-show; 19%, 33%, 17%)…….#8 Around the Dial boasts one of our fav trainers in T Amoss and he showed yesterday why his horses need to be respected on any occasion (20-1 winner)…..This horse makes his 3rd start in this barn and is coming off a career-best fig at Delta Downs and has been working well….Not much speed signed on in this race and he should be in a good spot turning for home…..#1 Drc All Inclusive is 10-1 on the ML and gets MEGALOCKS JOCKEY MOUNT RUSHMORE member R Santana Jr aboard today….We aren’t crazy about his record at Oaklawn (1/12) but think he can find his way into the top-four…….#7 Icatiro has a legit shot and has a pair of good showings since entering the Diodoro barn.
UPDATE. Finished 7-8-1-6
#1 and #8 hit the ticket. Great price on #7 and a sweet ride sitting just off the pace.
19.40 8.20 4.20
4.00 3.00
2.80
Ex = $74
Tri = $272
$1 Super = $2,555
Race 2
Most likely winner – #10 Mocha Kiss
Value pick – #9 Brahms Is Who
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says……Will try and beat the two likely favorites in this wide open affair….#4 Rich Princess will probably have control of the race early but she is a 5-yr old maiden that hasn’t recorded a top-two finish in her career (0/5)…..#6 Ella’s My Girl is also a 5-yr old maiden and she’s had trouble at the start in both of her two races….Maybe the gate workout on March 27 helped straighten things out?….We’ll use #10 Mocha Kiss who drops from the MSW ranks, shows a solid recent work, gets a drop in weight in the jockey department, and races for the 2nd time on lasix….Lots going on here….Should be decent odds…..#9 Brahms Is Who could improve in her second start and note that trainer T Rengstorf has good recent numbers on stretchouts (6/30, 30% ROI).
UPDATE. Congrats MOCHA KISS CLUB members. Finished 10-1-7-4. Hoped to get a better price on the winner. Mobsters were all over it.
5.80 3.30 3.00
4.00 3.50
6.80
Race 3
Most likely winner – #6 Admiral Brown
Value pick – #12 Winter Wolf (NOTE – SCRATCHED – Will use #14 instead)
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #2 Ice Sphere
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says……Handicapping is always challenging at this track!…..Will try and beat the likely favorite (or co-fav) #5 Ride to the Wire who has disappointed punters in each of his last two starts….Note that he has not won a race since 2017 and has two speedballs to the inside….#6 Admiral Brown has good connections and figs that stack up very nicely in this spot….Will be a hot handful but can’t afford to be too far back heading for home….#12 Winter Wolf boasts the Santana/Asmussen combo that took the last two races yesterday (Congrats MEGALOCKS DAILY DOUBLE CLUB members) and note the troubled trip last race at the BIG S (Sam Houston)…..Doubt you see the 10-1 price suggested in the ML but you never know….#2 Ice Sphere could take them a long way on the front end but will need to ration energy more effectively…..9/2 on the ML but we project double-digit odds.
UPDATE. CONGRATS MEGALOCKS ATM CLUB members.
Back to back JACKS and a nice-priced winner. Finish 6-8-14-4. Missed the trifecta with the #8 getting in there (dreaded 1st and 3rd) but the double was decent and we are still alive in the P3 and P4.
10.40 5.00 3.10
33.10 14.00
3.50
Ex = $245 Tri = $1626 10 cent super = $1060. Double = $35
Race 4
Most likely winner – #5 Santa Ana Winds
Value pick – #9 Big Affair
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #4 Southern Cents, #11 Hush Y’all (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says……Yet another race in which hitting the ALL BUTTON might be a good idea……Just kidding, not really……#5 Santa Ana Winds moves up from the maiden ranks off an impressive score and has a good post and racing style….Hard to know what the barn switch may mean for her chances…..Wouldn’t take too short of a price….#9 Big Affair hasn’t been seen since November but has been working well and has solid connections….Note the drop in class and the fact that she was well supported at the windows in all three of her starts….15-1 ML but doubt very much you will see anything close to that…..#4 Southern Cents was in over her head last start but her race two starts back looks good in the context of this field…..#1 Weekend Madness comes in off a blowout win but makes a big rise in class today….#12 Mucho Mas has the figs but this is a tough post to deal with….#11 Hush Y’all seems like a decent candidate to stagger in for 3rd or 4th and spice up the exotics.
UPDATE. Whoa Nellie. HAAAAA.
KABOOOOOOOOM CLUB MEMBERS rejoice. Finished 4-5-1-11
Time to do some accounting. $$.
31.20 13.40 7.20
4.60 3.20
3.80
Ex = $152
Tri = $631
Super $1 = $1,350
Pick 3 = $366
Pick 4 = 2,699 ($1). Missed it ARGH needed #5 or #9.
Race 5
Most likely winner – #6 Dark Arden
Value picks – #1 Swiss Minister, #2 Storminside
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #11 Big Sport
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says……#6 Dark Arden has the class and speed to take care of this bunch and it never sucks to have the Asmussen/Santana Jr combo working for you….#1 Swiss Minister makes his first start of the year and has been working like a CHAMP in the am….Note that trainer J Sadler won two races yesterday….#2 Storminside was well spotted last race and flew home to bag the win at 21-1…..Low key connections may mean this horse goes off at close to the ML…..Don’t take a short price but would be a must-use in multi-leg wagers….#11 will be yuuuuge odds off his last result and “steady fade” is not the comment you want to see….Maybe he didn’t enjoy the wet track?…..He shows several recent races that could make him tough and we like the jockey change to Borel.
UPDATE. Finished 1-10-2-5
#10 got up late to spoil a nice exacta. Let’s get the daily double.
7.50 4.90 4.10
5.20 4.90
5.40
Race 6
Most likely winner – #6 Verve’s Humor
Value picks – #1 ENTRY of Most Amusing and Good Scout, #7 Trashtalkinyankee
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says……Some of the more popular horses look vulnerable and we hope to get a good price on #6 Verve’s Humor who makes his first start in a claiming race and he has been working well….Low key connections and we should get a price close to the ML estimate of 9-2…..The ENTRY (1,1A) looks a bit spicy….#1A Good Scout moves up from the MCL ranks but looked sharp in his win last time out at 80 cents on the dollar…..#1 Most Amusing tries a route for the first time, gets a positive rider switch, and moved forward last race despite encountering some trouble…..#3 Oro de Tejano is a major player but sports a record of 1/20 will likely hit the ticket but can’t support for the win….#7 Trashtalkinyankee appears to be hitting top form and rejoins the barn of T Van Berg……#5 Shining Through is worth a look if allowed to creep up in odds towards the 8-1 range….Been working well, was recently gelded, and note the purchase price of $200K…..#9 New Mexico was a disaster last race and will make him beat us.
UPDATE. Finished 1-10-2-5
#10 got up late to spoil a nice exacta. Let’s get the daily double.
7.50 4.90 4.10
5.20 4.90
5.40
Race 7
Most likely winner – #1 Dunph (Best Bet)
Value picks – #4 Victory Element
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #7 Tez
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says……#1 Dunph has a lot going for him today on the stretchout….Lethal connections, best post for this distance at the current meet, strong work pattern….Trainer J Sharp also great with blinkers off move….#11 Lighthawk has a really tough post to deal with and disappointed punters in both recent starts….Will try and beat him today…#4 Victory Element should be on or near the lead and that helps at this distance at OP…..Note that trainer S Hobby is 6/13 (!) at the meet and the latest work is excellent…..#7 Tez doesn’t have the figs but you know we never mind backing T Amoss horses and his worktab is excellent….Could be a SURPRISE PACKAGE.
UPDATE. Finished 1-8-4-7. CONGRATS MEGALOCKS PRIVATE JET WITH JACUZZI CLUB members.
Best bet winner. Lots of stuff live. And good cash this race. Missed the trifecta.
4.60 3.40 2.80
9.00 6.20
6.80
Let’s keep it going buh buh.
Race 8
Most likely winner – #2 Strong Flag
Value picks – #4 Dawn’s Dancer
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says……#2 Strong Flag is going to be tough to beat from this post considering how well she performed last time out and check out the connections and workout on March 30…..#4 Dawn’s Dancer is a $250K purchase and tries dirt for the first time….We like the jockey change to M Garcia and she’s drawn well in post 4…..There are a few others in here that move from turf to dirt (#7, #9) but the price on Dawn’s Dancer will probably be the best.
UPDATE. Finished 3-2-7-4
2nd and 4th. #2 couldn’t get it done.
14.10 5.50 3.60
3.20 2.50
3.20
Race 9
Most likely winner – #4 Candy Cornell
Value pick – #9 Principe Guilherme
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says……#4 Candy Cornell is the horse to beat without question based on his speed figs, recent form, and stellar connections….Lots of speed signed on in this event so he will just have to avoid getting caught up in a crazy duel up front….He has shown he can do that in the past…..The race setup should help closers like #2 Nifty and #9 Principe Guilherme and we prefer #9 just based on the fact that he will almost certainly be the higher priced of the two horses….We are never crazy about betting horses that need to come from way back but this race might provide a good opportunity for that to happen <grabs popcorn>.
UPDATE. Didn’t think the #3 could get it done. Oops. 2nd and 3rd horses made sense. #9 couldn’t get on to the ticket.
Finish 3-4-2-1
28.60 9.70 5.10
3.60 2.80
2.70
Race 10
Most likely winner – #2 Inshannity
Value pick – #8 Offering
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #3 Trapped In My Mind
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says……Some really good-looking first-time starters in this race and we prefer #2 Inshannity who will certainly take a lot of action at the windows…Trainer B Baffert is 2/3 at the meet and does well when paired with jockey M Garcia…..Workout tab is stellar….#1 Ready N Waiting also has a great set of workouts on display but note that she is the only 3 year old in the field….#8 Offering had a really nice gate work at the Fairgrounds on March 19 and features the Asmussen/Santana Jr combo….Should be a decent price and worth a look….#3 Trapped in My Mind had trouble in her last outing back in August but has been working well at Pimlico and has the right running style to make her dangerous coming for home.
UPDATE. Mo Money Mo Money.
Finished 2-4-3-8
Picked the winner and our 20-1 shot was a solid 3rd. #8 got up for 4th. No exacta or super (argh, bad ticket construction) but the trifecta was decent. No double or pick 3 either thanks to race 9. Still a good way to end a great day.
4.20 3.50 2.90
6.80 5.70
8.10
Ex = $40
Tri = $468
$1 Super = $1,965
See ya Saturday!