Hope everyone is hanging in there and that all is well with family and friends. For those who wish to partake in a little sweet thoroughbred racing action we have assembled some thoughts for today’s Oaklawn Park card.
The racing is competitive at Oaklawn Park and the field sizes are excellent. The handicapping challenge is DAUNTING but note that the payoffs here are among the best in North America on a consistent basis.
Make sure to listen to Nancy Holthus who does a fine job with the analysis!
Best of luck if you take a stab or two! Play safe and have fun.
Race 1
Most likely winner – #6 One for Richie
Value pick – #8 Bullion (UPDATE – #8 SCRATCHED will not go)
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #1 Beemie Award
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says…….Interesting way to start another great day of racing at Oaklawn Park!……It’s never easy to bag winners here so best of luck today……#6 One for Richie hasn’t done anything wrong in his 4 yr old campaign and has a fig two-back that would probably win this race comfortably…..That effort was under the care of R Diodoro but note that trainer C Contreras has good numbers 2nd off the claim (8/38, 121% ROI) and we love the jockey move to M Garcia……#8 might be overlooked a bit in the wagering but has also looked very good in his 4 yr old campaign and shows a win at OP at this distance (wet track)…..He crushed in a 7F dry track at Santa Anita in 2019 so we feel good about his chances no matter how the track turns up…..Note the excellent record of the Rocco/Jones combo and we are happy with recent workouts……#1 Beemie Award leaves from a great post (see below) and ran a CRACKER at this track and distance in 2019……Jockey F De La Cruz gets back on board after guiding him to a win in a lower class two races back…..Bomb potential but not for the risk averse……Other legit contenders to consider in the Pick 4 are the #4 Getaloadofthis who enters the great Diodoro barn but note he is 0-9 on dirt….#5 Cabot has great connections but hasn’t done that much since last July and April….#2 Mr Ankeny has some races from June that stack up well but the last two races were weak…..#7 Scoring is the lone 3 yr old in the race and figs might be a touch light and trainer is cold (see below).
FUN WITH NUMBERS……Runners leaving from post 1 this meet in 6F claiming events are hitting at 22% (89 races)……Trainer F Villafranco is 0/31 at OP L30D.
UPDATE. GREAT way to start the day! #6 most likely winner at 7/2 and #1 fills out the TRI!
Finished 6-7-1-5
9.70 5.00 4.90
4.90 3.40
4.30
Ex = $38 (missed it)
Tri = $350 (yes, guy)
Did not play superfecta but some sweet Pick 4 action is going.
Race 2
Most likely winner – #3 Cold Smoke
Value pick – #5 Neverblink, #8 Exhort
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says…….#3 Cold Smoke is going to be a tough cookie in this affair….Figs are solid and he moves into the deadly R Diodoro barn who shows great numbers off the claim and with jockey D Cohen…..Not a ton of speed in this race should get a good trip….#5 Neverblink moves into the C Richard barn and displayed a great amount of pace in his last race at TP…..He also drops into MCL company today and might be tough to catch if he breaks sharply and grabs the lead……#8 Exhort has great connections (O’Neill/Garcia) and drops from a MSW race AND adds blinkers…..Not sure how he adjusts from moving from a turf route to a dirt sprint but we find it’s usually best to trust the good trainers……Lots of closing types in this race and it’s hard to wrap our head around who might be the best closing threat….#2 Brother Martin has a good post and drops in class but is 0/5…..#4 My Name is Phred can fly home……#11 Mr Scissors moves into the K Broberg barn and not sure he has the figs (see more below).
FUN WITH NUMBERS……Horses leaving from post 1 in MCL races at 6F are just 3/59 this meet…..Trainer K Broberg is 4/23 off the claim at OP this meet (-4% ROI) and 1/7 in that scenario in MCL races (-73% ROI; one short-priced winner)
UPDATE. CONGRATS STONE COLD DAILY DOUBLE CLUB. #3 wins as expected. T’was a romp.
Finished 3-9-5-4. Somehow missed the tri (argh, #9).
Sweet Pick 4 action still rolling.
5.40 3.10 2.60
5.30 3.20
4.30
Daily double = $29 (yes, guy)
Race 3
Most likely winner – #4 Pat Daddy
Value pick – #3 Rockshaw, #1 Big Bella Brown
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says…….Very competitive field and lots of ways you could go in this one!……Will post #4 Pat Daddy as our most likely winner but there’s not much to choose between when you look at the top contenders so we won’t take a short price….This horse is 3/5 at OP (5/5 top 3) and 5/13 at the distance…..Last race was excellent…..#3 Rockshaw moves into the C Contreras barn (check to see how his earlier starter did for potential clues) and also has a good boxscore and recent form…..#1 Big Bella Brown moves into to the Diodoro barn off the claim and that is often a good sign that a win or solid performance is on the way…..He is also sharp looms large……#5 Top Brass is capable but may have too far to come late…..Probably a must use in multi-leg wagers.
UPDATE. That’s what they call a SCOOP JACKSON buh buh. Finished 4-3-1-2. <contacts Accounting Department; purchases Tibet>
6.40 3.40 2.40
4.20 2.80
2.60
Ex = $25
Tri = $82
ALL horse live in Pick 4, Extra $ on 1,2. Let’s do ittttttt.
Race 4
Most likely winner – #1 Laddie Boy
Value pick – #2 Driven to Compete
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #10 Tashkent (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says…….#1 Laddie Boy gets a great draw and shows four wins at this distance…..The recent workouts are fantastic and we expect a top effort off the layoff….#2 Driven to Compete also has a good post to work with and boasts a couple of figs last summer that would stack up VERY well if repeated today…..Like the jockey change to M Garcia….#10 Tashkent as a tough post (see below) but has shown the ability to pass horses and is 5/6 in the top three at this distance…..Monster jockey change to R Santana Jr…..Looking for a late run and slice of the vertical wagers.
FUN WITH NUMBERS……Horses leaving from the outside post in claiming races at this distance are 2/40 L365D.
UPDATE. KABOOM ALERT CLUB celebrates. Missed super and tri given that #10 was too good but the exacta was nice as was the P4. On fire so far today.
Finished 10-1-4-9
41.10 10.70 7.40
3.30 2.90
6.70
Ex = $156 (!!!!!!!!!!)
$1 Pick 4 = $1460 (yes, guy)
Race 5
Most likely winner – #10 Souixper Charger
Value pick – #6 Lieutenant Powell
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #2 Sunday Sermon
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says…….Will try and beat the likely fav #1 Prospector Fever as even though he is a legit contender he may not be well suited for this race (see below)…..Feel free to use defensively in vertical and horizontal wagers but he will likely be an underlay in our view…..#10 Souixper Charger stretches out today and has the speed to get in good position….R Santana Jr is a yuuuuuge plus and note that he had a fine 5F work on April 9 and trainer D Peitz is very good with stretchouts….#6 Leiutenant Powell gets a good draw and is a consistent type that needs to be respected…..#2 Sunday Sermon will need to take a step forward to win this race but he is razor sharp coming off a win at this distance (mud) on March 15…..Check out that CRACKER of a workout on April 3.
FUN WITH NUMBERS……In the L365D at this distance in allowance events (48 races) horses leaving from post 2 are winning at a 25% rate……#1 Prospector Fever is 6/12 on turf but 0/8 on fast dirt…..Also note that horses moving from turf to dirt L365D in allowance races at this distance are 1/15.
UPDATE. Wake us up because we are unconscious. Congrats #10 CLUB MEMBERS. #1 was indeed a LAND MINE on the win end.
Finished 10-11-1-3
7.50 4.50 3.20
7.30 4.40
3.10
Let’s get some doubles and pick 3s to make up for the trifecta debacle.
Race 6
Most likely winner – #9 Shaharazad
Value picks – #7 Daaherachel, #8 JP’s Gladys
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #1 Smokin Hot Momma
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says…….TONS of early speed in this race and in theory it should make things easier for the closers…..We almost always avoid horses with deep-closing running styles in 6F races but you have to think that the pace setup will flatter #9 Shaharazad who also moves into the hot Diodoro barn…..The big drop in class off the claim is a concern (see below)….#8 JP’s Gladys has a shot to hit the top-two with a good trip and setup and trainer K Puhl is 2/16 first time off the claim….5/29 at the distance but just 2/20 L2Y…..#1 Smokin Hot Momma should get a good trip from the rail if she doesn’t get engaged with all the crazy need-the-lead types…..We like the jockey change to C Borel and think he is crafty enough to coax a good effort….Drop in class and post are a bonus…..#7 Daaherachel appears to be the speed of the speed based on first fraction times over the last 365D…..Not crazy about having speedballs inside of her but still worth a look.
FUN WITH NUMBERS……Trainer R Diodoro is 0/4 first time off the claim this meet when dropping horses 50% or more in claiming price.
UPDATE. <takes cold shower> <contacts Accounting Department> <buys Finland>
Finishes 8-4-9-6
No exacta or trifecta. Daily Double VERY NICE and let’s book that Pick 3 buh buh. Did not play P4.
36.20 14.90 7.90
17.50 8.30
3.00
Daily double = $130 (yes, guy)
Race 7
Most likely winner – #7 Charlie’sarchangel
Value picks – #2 Frost Or Frippery
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #5 Wild About You (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says…….WHOA NELLIE…..Super tough race to get our heads around…..Long distance to navigate…..#7 Charlie’sarchangel has hit the top-3 in seven (!) consecutive appearances and has impeccable connections……#2 Frost Or Frippery has a great boxscore showing 1/1 at the distance and 6/6 in the top-2 at OP……seven consecutive top-2 finishes (!!)…..Might get decent odds (4-1+)…..#5 Wild About You doesn’t have the figs you want to see but note the sneaky jockey change to O Mojica, he is 9/13 at OP, 1/2 at the distance, and has a proven ability to pass horses….Outclassed but capable of clunking into 3rd or 4th at monster odds.
Race 8
Most likely winner – #9 Nonna Madeline
Value picks – #4 Mongolian Humor
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #11 Royal Gem (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says…..#9 Nonna Madeline as impeccable connections (Talamo/Pletcher) and has been facing some tough competition….Hard to know if she can get the distance but she looks tough on paper…..#4 Mongolian Humor comes in from Santa Anita and shows a good work at OP (April 8)…..She is 0/2 at the distance but could be a SURPRISE PACKAGE if she can fire something close to her best races from the late summer 2019……#11 Royal Gem is probably outclassed but we think she has a chance to slug into the superfecta given that she has a proven ability to pass horses and has been improving of late (4-yr old – can she move forward again?)
Race 9
Most likely winner – #12 Attain Success
Value picks – #2 Market King, #11 Special Reserve
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says…..#12 Attain Success gets a good stalking outside post and makes his first start in the barn of elite trainer R Diodoro…..He is 0/7 at OP but his figs are competitive and any improvement at all makes him tough to beat….#2 Market King gets a great draw and even though he is 1/16 could be a SURPRISE PACKAGE from the rail with K Harr up…..Fun fact….He was in the PREAKNESS last year and a $550K purchase now in for $30K…..As a former horse owner I can tell you that asset value is a tricky thing in this business….#11 Special Reserve makes his first start in a claiming race and has early speed.
GL and see ya tomorrow!!