Hope everyone is hanging in there and that all is well with family and friends. For those who wish to partake in a little sweet thoroughbred racing action we have assembled some thoughts for today’s Oaklawn Park card.
The racing is competitive at Oaklawn Park and the field sizes are excellent. The handicapping challenge is DAUNTING but note that the payoffs here are among the best in North America on a consistent basis.
Make sure to listen to Nancy Holthus who does a fine job with the analysis!
Best of luck if you take a stab or two! Play safe and have fun.
Race 1
Most likely winner – #10 Bravura Creek
Value pick – #8 Random Affair
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #3 Traffic Scout, #4 Slightly Crafty (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says……Tough handicapping challenge to start the day!…..#10 Bravura Creek just missed in a fine effort at 6F last time out and now stretches out in distance….Should be forwardly placed and that is always good at this class and distance….#8 Random Affair is a need-the-lead type who can’t seem to seal the deal (0/4)…..Wouldn’t take a short price but could go wire to wire in a field like this…..R Vasquez stays aboard to take another shot with him…..#3 Traffic Scout has lots going on and that could signify a big improvement in his second start….He drops from a MSW race, add blinkers, and moves closer to the rail….Trainer A Milligan is 0/40 at the meet so it’s hard to feel super confident….Worth a shot for longshot players…..#4 Slightly Crafty is worth using at the bottom of tri and super tickets…..He is 0/12 but shows a lot of slices in his record and is more than capable of staggering in for 3rd or 4th at decent odds……He’s never been less than 14-1……#5 Rockthepulpit drops back into a MCL event and will be well-supported at the windows….Must use in multi-race wagers but note that last race was a disappointment and trainer F Villafranco is 0/33 L30 days at the meet…..Could easily use 5 horses in this leg in multi-race wagers and not survive…..GL!
FUN WITH NUMBERS……In 20 MCL races at this distance L365D horses leaving from post 1 and post 2 are each 1/20……Horses leaving from post 11 and post 12 are a combined 0/14…..Second-time starters L365D in MCL races at this distance are 0/22 (#3….uh oh).
UPDATE. Mostly bad news. #4 did indeed clunk up to hit the super. Did not think the #2 would win or that the #12 would hit the top-2.
Finished 2-12-7-4
13.50 6.10 4.50
4.10 3.30
5.10
Race 2
Most likely winner – #2 War Veteran
Value picks – #4 Defender, #7 Violent Storm
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #5 Muskoka Wonder
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says……#2 War Veteran moves into the deadly Diodoro barn and gets a great draw (see below)…..He won at this exact distance two starts back in a lower class….Should be tough to beat….#4 Defender shows solid figs and had trouble last start as the beaten favorit….Note the sneaky jockey change to T Baze who does well when paired with trainer I Mason…..#7 Violent Storm makes his 2nd start off the claim in the Asmussen barn and he has solid stats in that scenario (see below)…..and you know we love us some R Santana Jr…..#5 Muskoka Wonder hasn’t hit the top-3 since 2018 (!) but has been racing well and comes out of the same race the #2 War Veteran participated in on March 15…..That race came up SPICY as two horses from that race have won next time out.
FUN WITH NUMBERS……In 16 claiming races this meet at the exact distance of 1M posts 1 & 2 have each won 4 times (50% combined; thanks to our resident MATH MAJORS for calculating that stat for us)……Posts 8-12 are a combined 0/42 (!)….Not saying just saying…..Trainer S Asmussen (#7) is 8/25 2nd time off the claim L365D at OP (6% ROI) and 7/18 (17% ROI) with Santana Jr aboard.
UPDATE. Got the top-2. Ham sandwich. Let’s try and get a pick 3 home buh buh.
Finished 4-2-3-1
5.80 3.10 2.70
5.10 3.80
4.30
Ex = $26 (yes, guy)
Race 3
Most likely winner – #7 Road Game
Value pick – #10 Mr Unusual
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says……Not crazy about the 0/8 mark on #7 Road Game but he shows solid figs and note the sneaky jockey change to C Lanerie who does really well with trainer C Hartman…..#10 Mr Unusual has phenomenal connections and note that jockey J Rosario has been great with his limited starts this meet (5/13; 12/13 top-3 !)….Love the 5F work on April 8…..Will keep an eye out for #14 Silver Seabee who is an also-eligible (LATE SCR) and makes his first start for the excellent B Cox barn…..#1 Majestic Day is 0/14 but probably the most likely horse to hit the top-4….#2 Globus gets a big jockey change to D Cohen but is 0/11 and not sure he can take them coast to coast.
FUN WITH NUMBERS……Trainer S Asmussen is 0/5 L365D at OP when dropping MCL horses 50% or more in price (#12).
UPDATE. ARGH! Horseplayers know the feeling. Had a SCOOP JACKSON, every ticket between here and New Zealand and then they disqualified #10 from 2nd place. Not a big deal, it happens. Sometimes you get the benefit of a DQ. Pick 3 live to the all horse next race and Ex was decent.
Finished 7-1-4-2 (was 7-10-1-4 before DQ)
6.70 4.10 3.00
5.10 3.00
7.60
Ex=$34
Race 4
Most likely winner – #7 Elitch
Value pick – #2 Gold Backed, #3 Tapitor
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #11 Excavation (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says……#7 Elitch makes his 2nd start in the Asmussen barn off the claim (see race 2 analysis for stats in that scenario) and he should be a major player in this field….Note he is 3/13 at the distance (7/13 top-3)…..#2 Gold Backed has a racing style we really try and avoid (deep closer) but he won his last race closing well into a slowing pace….Jockey D Cohen takes over and maybe trainer N McKnight can make it BACK TO BACK JACKS…..More likely for 2nd or 3rd but must respect….#3 Tapitor makes a big drop in class (see below) but has solid connections and is 2/6 at the distance….#11 Excavation is nothing special but we’ll use him on the bottom of our vertical wagers to try and spice things up a bit….He’s reliable and has more than a few figs in his past performances that suggest he can stagger into 3rd or 4th…..Will try and beat a couple of contenders on the top end……#10 Mucho Macho Dan moves into the Broberg barn and had a great race Feb 6th….We’re just not crazy about 1/14 record L2Y and note that he was RANK (read: hard-to-control psycho) in each of his last three races……#5 Senor Blanco will get lots of betting support but note that he is 8/27 on turf and synthetic and 0/6 on dirt (6 top-3).
FUN WITH NUMBERS……Trainer R Diodoro is 4/10 L365D at OP dropping horses 50% or more in claiming price (#3) (-1% ROI) and 7/10 have hit the top-3.
UPDATE. Congrats EXACTA AND PICK 3 CLUB members. Ham sandwiches but everyone’s gotta eat buh buh. Somehow missed the trifecta.
Finished 3-7-12-4
7.40 4.20 3.30
4.60 3.50
7.80
Ex=$28
P3 = $44
Race 5
Most likely winner – #6 Proud Victoria
Value pick – #5 Choctaw Charlie
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says……Top-heavy field as appears virtually certain (if that is possible in horse racing) that one of the top-four on paper will get the job done…..We’ll try and pare it down…..#6 Proud Victoria has great connections and should get a lot of speed to chase….Note that three (!) horses from her last race have come back to win next time out….Not crazy about her racing style but we’ll bank on a few of the contenders hammering it out up front…..#5 Choctaw Charlie is our pick to get the best trip in the race and he gets J Rosario up today…..She is 0/2 but lost both by painfully small margins……Should get at least the ML suggestion of 7/2……#8 Sekani didn’t enjoy her trip last time out but crushed her opposition two starts back….She will be gunning from the outside and we worry IF she is a need-the-lead type then it may be lights out as her first fraction numbers don’t stack up like you would think when glancing at the racing form….#2 The Mary Rose is a legit threat and we can see her gunning for all she is worth from the rail.
UPDATE. Oops. Finished 8-2-5-6 Got the top-4 correct like everyone else, but the order….not so much.
6.60 3.60 2.60
5.00 3.00
2.40
Race 6
Most likely winner – #8 First Citizen
Value pick – #10 Smart Call
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #11 Shacks Way, #2 Slew Tang Clan (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says……Another big field and tough nut to crack from a handicapping perspective…..#8 First Citizen has figs that make him tough to beat and his last performance in particular was a CRACKER…..He moves into the M Rouck barn is he is 1/4 first off the claim…..#10 Smart Call has lots of things to like when considering his chances….He drops out of a MSW race and gets ace jockey J Rosario in the irons…..Workout pattern is fantastic and note that two horses out of his last race came back to win next time out…..#11 Shacks Way took a MSW field a long way on the lead last time as the betting fav…..Talamo is back on board and trainer B Cox is one of the best….#2 Slew Tang Clan is 0/8 but has five finishes in the top-4 and drops out of MSW competition….Figs don’t inspire but he is worth a look at the bottom of vertical wagers.
Race 7
Most likely winner – #3 Summer Revolution
Value picks – #5 Junior Gilliam, #11 Sacred Kiki Bird
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #14 Platinum Nights (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says……Wide open affair and any horse you choose will have some relatively serious negatives to make you a bit nervous….#3 Summer Revolution has the potent Asmussen/Santana combo in his corner and takes a yuuuuge drop in class…..The figs stand out but he may have too far to come in the lane…..B+ effort will make him tough to beat….#5 Junior Gilliam closed from 12th to 3rd last time out and is 4/17 at the distance…..he makes his 4th start off an extended layoff….#11 Sacred Kiki Bird moves into the potent Diodoro barn and this race came up pretty soft….Figs will need to improve but Diodoro has had him since March 6th…..#14 Platinum Nights gets a jockey change to J Talamo (changed from Santana Jr) and might been heard from late to get a bottom piece of vertical wagers.
Race 8
Most likely winner – #2 Curate
Value picks – #4 Touching Rainbows
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #12 Operation Stevie (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says……#2 Curate ran a monster race two back out of the barn of trainer P Miller and he was re-claimed off his last effort and moves back under the care of Mr Miller….He is 2/3 at OP and 5/12 at the distance (9/12 top-3)…..#4 Touching Rainbows is in top-form and is 2/2 ITM at OP and 5/8 at this distance….Workout tab is excellent…..#12 Operation Stevie can fly home and we will use him underneath in the vertical wagers and hope for a late slice….#3 Early Mischief is a rocket out of the gate but this may be a tough group to wire up….#5 Mojovation fired a lifetime best out and certainly has the ability to get into the top-3….We will try and beat #8 Zipp On By on the top end as he has been off since November.
Race 9
Most likely winner – #10 Zaino Boyz
Value picks – #6 Tempt Fate
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says……Chalky-looking race and we’ll side with #10 Zaino Boyz who is an absolute rocket…..We are usually very skeptical of speedballs coming from Gulfstream Park as the early fractions in dirt sprints there are comically fast…..Still he is 2/4 at the distance and gets a relatively weak field for a Stakes race in our estimation…..#6 Tempt Fate could upset the apple cart coming off an impressive MSW score and a running style that could provide DIVIDENDS in today’s race.
Race 10
Most likely winner – #2 Scrutinizer
Value picks – #3 Codetowin, #4 Ruler of the Nile
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #10 Always
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says……Winner should come from of the top-rated horses…..#2 Scrutinizer is razor sharp and is 7/22 at the distance…..Should be prominent throughout….#3 Codetowin is 7/11 at the distance and has put back to back CRACKERS together at OP…..#4 Ruler of the Nile gets MEGALOCKS MT RUSHMORE JOCKEY member R Santana Jr and has a running style that could suit perfectly for this tilt….#10 Always has late GET UP AND GO and should hit the top 4.