Horse Racing – Oaklawn Park – April 18, 2020

Hope everyone is hanging in there and that all is well with family and friends. For those who wish to partake in a little sweet thoroughbred racing action we have assembled some thoughts for today’s Oaklawn Park card.

The racing is competitive at Oaklawn Park and the field sizes are excellent. The handicapping challenge is DAUNTING but note that the payoffs here are among the best in North America on a consistent basis.

Make sure to listen to Nancy Holthus who does a fine job with the analysis!

Best of luck if you take a stab or two! Play safe and have fun.


Race 1

Most likely winner – #5 My Legacy

Value picks – #4 Wenyen, #9 Rivers of Lite

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #7 Begin the Begin

MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says……It’s a big card today at Oaklawn Park!…#5 My Legacy makes his 2nd start off a layoff and did nothing wrong in his first effort from post 10…..His figs from last season at OP would look really good if replicated in this field or even something a bit lower….#4 Wenyen races out of the excellent Diodoro barn and takes the blinkers off after a one race experiment….Jockey change to Mojica….He tried hard in both starts but will have to take a step forward today…..Not impossible for a horse making his 3rd lifetime start….#9 Rivers of Lite gets a monster jockey change to C Lanerie today and has an outstanding work on display (5F April 4)…..Eligible to improve 2nd time out….#7 Begin the Begin shows a fine 5F gate work on April 11th and gets in light today with jockey C Roberts…..Wouldn’t be surprised to see this one near the front early and then who knows?……We’ll try and defeat #3 Written Permission on the win end as he is 0/12 lifetime…..Lost a heartbreaker last time out and certainly a logical horse to hit the top-3…..let’s hope it’s not graduation day for him <crosses fingers>.

FUN WITH NUMBERS…..Was curious to know what impact age has on the handicapping puzzle when it comes to first-time starters in MCL events at OP……In MCL sprints L365D first-time starters are 9/152 at OP which isn’t great (expected, need to cherry pick those bad boys) but note that 4-5 yr-olds are a combined 1-26 (5 yr olds 0/2). In theory, that means you might want to pay more attention to the #7 Begin the Begin as opposed to #8 Fast Recovery, although both horses have decent looking workout tabs. Would use both tho in a daily double spread for those who are looking for bombs. GL!

UDPATE. Congrats KABOOM CLUB members. Great value on the best horse (7/2) and some nice exacta and trifecta payouts!! Missed the super. Daily doubles live. Let’s do itttttt.

Finished 5-9-1-3

9.00 5.00 3.40

5.20 3.60

9.00

Ex = $51

Tri = $505

Race 2

Most likely winner – #9 Metropol

Value pick – #2 Executive Branch

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #11 Knowyouroptions (3rd, 4th)

MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says…..#9 Metropol takes a drop in class and has excellent trainer B Cox in his corner…..Star jockey F Geroux gets the riding assignment and he is 5/16 at the meet and does very well when paired with this conditioner….#2 Executive Branch gets the jockey/trainer combo of I Mason and T Baze who won a pair of races yesterday….This $450K (!) purchase will have to navigate a bit more distance than he did in his Feb 7th win at OP….#11 Knowyouroptions has a tough post but raced well last time out and sports a mighty fine 5F workout (April 11)…..Proven ability to pass horses and maybe he can spice up the vertical wagers by clunking in for a late piece……#1 Mica Bay gets a jockey change to M Garcia and a trainer change…..0/4 at the distance but gets a good draw…..Decent bet to hit the top-4…..#3 Delp hasn’t hit the TOP 2 in four dirt starts.

FUN WITH NUMBERS…..Trainer F Villafranco (#4) is 0/36 L30D at Oaklawn…..In 155 claiming races at OP at this distance L365D the inside posts 1-3 have won 44% of the time.

UPDATE. Glug glug glug……there go the doubles. Trainer F Villafranco gets a WIN and it took a heads up steer from MEGALOCKS MT RUSHMORE JOCKEY member R Santana Jr. Congrats to those who picked the winner! Our picks were pretty much a stink-fest that race. It happens.

Finished 4-10-3-1

17.80 8.80 5.20

36.80 7.40

4.00

Race 3

Most likely winner – #1 Moonshine Miss

Value picks – #6 Daigle

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #2 Furzy

MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says…..We’ll try and beat the probable fav #10 Lovely Lou who has posted three straight consistent (and money-burning) efforts……#1 Moonshine Miss stretches out in distance and shows a great 5F workout on April 14…..D Cohen is the pilot and she has drawn well in post 1…..#6 Daigle might be worth a shot as she also stetches out in distance and should be prominently placed turning for home…..#2 Furzy was off slow last race but could improve 2nd time out and she adds the blinkers (logical) and lasix and also draws well.

FUN WITH NUMBERS…..Trainer M Robertson (#1) has a fine record with stretchouts….He is on a 29% run (16/55) and that equates to a 20% win ROI.

UPDATE. Top-2 picks came 3rd/4th at good odds. Two favs came 1-2 (9/5, 2/1) and made for a chalky payoff for anyone who had winning tikkkee tikkkeeeeez.

Finished 9-10-1-6

5.80 3.40 2.60

3.60 2.80

3.20

Race 4

Most likely winner – #2 Dancin in Paradise

Value picks – #10 Punish, 11 Oh My Oh

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #1 Elite Song

MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says…..#2 Dancin in Paradise drops from allowance company, draws well, and has rock solid connections…..Trainer D O’Neill shows fine stats with the blinkers-on maneuver…..#11 Oh My Oh moves into the Cecil Borel barn and note the excellent stats this meet (6/13)…..Work tab is fantastic and we expect a big effort….#1 Elite Song can leave like a rocket and has the ability to dominate the race with a quick start from the rail……#9 Lady Gusto is 1/22 and doesn’t have the best “winning” racing style but should be able to hit the top-4…..#10 Punish is a must-use in multi-race wagers with the jockey change to J Rosario.

UPDATE – #2 led a long way but faded late in the lane for 3rd. #9 got up in the SHADOW OF THE WIRE and is now 2/23. Congrats to those who had that horse on the win end! Generous price of 5-1 was thinking that horse would go off closer to 3-1.

Finished 9-3-2-4

13.50 6.10 3.90

6.90 4.60

5.10

Race 5

Most likely winner – #4 Skyvalue

Value picks – #5 Voila Baby, #13 Collude

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None

MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says…..#4 Skyvalue makes her 2nd career start and her first race was decent….Now we get a yuuuuuge jockey change to J Rosario who has had success when paired with trainer R Moquett…..#5 Voila Baby drops from a MSW event and makes her 2nd career start…..She has early speed on display and note the success that trainer M Robertson has when making the big class drop with his runners (MSW to MCL)…..#13 Collude gets into the race with the scratch of #3…..She should get excellent position and trainer K Puhl hit with a bomb on April 16 (17-1)…..Puhl is 3/17 first time off the claim.

UPDATE.

That’s what they call a SCOOP JACKSON, yo. Ham sandwiches, but we all need to eat, yo.

Finished 4-13-5-10. Three horses, 1-2-3.

5.60 3.60 2.60

5.60 3.60

4.00

Ex=$28

Tri=$181

$1 Super=$527

Race 6

Most likely winner – #3 Front Door

Value picks – #4 Dangerfield, #5 Dr Hipp

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None

MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says…..# Front Door makes a big drop for Diodoro and note that he STRUCK GOLD with a similar runner on yesterday’s card…..He is 0/7 at the distance but has the figs and should get a clean trip…..#4 Dangerfield is just 3/32 life but has very competitive speed figures and displays an excellent 5F workout on April 11…..#5 Dr Hipp looks like a SURPRISE PACKAGE given the drop in class and epic jockey change to D Cohen.

FUN WITH NUMBERS…..Horses leaving from posts 9-12 are a combined 4/52 at this distance L365D in claiming races…..The runner leaving from the far outside post is 3/40 (#12)……Also related to #12 note that trainer T Amoss is 0/5 at OP L365D when dropping horses 50% or more in price.

UPDATE

Strong call, buh buh. Finished 4-3-2-7. Nice exacta. Needed 3-4 to hit the 3-4-all tri argh. Double a ham sandwich but we’ll take it.

12.40 5.20 3.90

4.10 3.20

13.80

Ex = $44 (!)

Double = $23

Race 7

Most likely winner – #5 Dessman

Value picks – #1 Wild Popit

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None

MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says…..#5 Dessman looks like the one to beat on paper give the good draw and impeccable connections (Garcia/Baffert)…..He’s making his 2nd start off an extended layoff and this 750K (!) purchase gets the blinkers on today which is a POWER MOVE for Baffert….#1 Wild Popit tackles a route of distance for the first time and has done nothing wrong in any of last three starts…..Good draw and S Elliott is back to try and win for the “3rd” straight time on this horse (one win was DQ’d).

UPDATE. Mo money. Didn’t hit anything other than crappy double but got some P3 action going buh buh.

Finished 5-7-3-1

4.80 3.80 3.10

9.20 6.20

5.00

Double = $23

Race 8

Most likely winner – #9 Whitmore

Value picks – None

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #10 Share the Upside, #11 Nitrous (3rd, 4th)

MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says…..#9 Whitmore looks like the class of the field and has run a pair of great races this year at OP…..His record at Oaklawn is impossibly good (8/13, 13/13 top 3) and he is 11/20 at the distance….#10 Share the Upside was a bit of a disappointment last race but note his lifetime record (5/14, 4/6 at OP, 4/11 at the distance) and he managed to defeat our top pick two races back…..#11 Nitrous gets ace jockey R Santana Jr aboard as he makes his first start as a 4-yr old…..He placed 2nd in a Grade 1 race LY and the closing kick should suit in a race like this with so much early speed.

UPDATE.

Congrats ATOMIC BOMB CLUB members. #9 somehow went off at 3-1 which is….whatever. #11 does indeed get up for 4th. BOOOOOM. No exacta or tri but super and Pick 3 dolllaaaa.

Finished 9-2-8-11

8.20 4.10 3.00

4.40 3.40

14.50

Pick 3 = $60 (!!!!!)

Super = $1047 for 20 cents…….Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Lets get that next P3 and P4 buh buh.

Race 9

Most likely winner – #1 Shanghai Tariff

Value picks – None

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #4 Headland

MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says…..#1 Shanghai Tariff is in fine form and loves racing at Oaklawn Park (4/10; 9/10 top 3)…..She is 5/14 at the distance and we like that she proved two races back that she can sit just off the lead and win….There are a lot of speedballs in here and hopefully she can navigate a good trip from the rail…..The workout pattern is sensational…..#4 Headland is 4/6 at OP (6/6 top 3) and 5/11 at the distance…..She’ll have to make a bit jump in figs to win the race but we think she can spice up the vertical wagers.

UPDATE. Came up empty. Finished 6-9-4-1. #1 raced well but #6 was too much. #4 was also very very game. On to the next one.

5.30 4.30 3.50

8.60 5.40

4.20

Race 10

Most likely winner – #4 Come Dancing

Value picks – #11 Serengeti Express

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #5 Point of Honor (3rd, 4th)

MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says…..#4 Come Dancing makes her first start of the year which is a bit of a question mark BUT note that she has CRUSHED in her two latest efforts off the bench and this lightly-raced mare is 8/14 lifetime and 2/2 in the top-2 at the distance……She is in good hands with jockey F Geroux…..#11 Serengeti Express is a need-the-lead type which could be problematic but she is in top form and recently won the G2 Azeri by a wide margin….# 5 Point of Honor almost certainly won’t be able to keep up early but she is 6/7 in the top-3 and could improve 2nd time off the bench…..Will use underneath.

Race 11

Most likely winner – #10 Matrooh

Value picks – #2 Kurilov

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None

MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says…..Feels like a chalky end to the card but you never know….#10 Matrooh races out of the excellent Diodoro barn and has a pair of figs in his last three races that would most likely win this race…..10-yr old racing well but gets a bit more distance today….#2 Kurilov gets a good draw and fantastic connections in his corner (Talamo/Cox)…..Just might be the safer bet of our top-2 in terms of hitting the ticket.

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