Hope everyone is hanging in there and that all is well with family and friends. For those who wish to partake in a little sweet thoroughbred racing action we have assembled some thoughts for today’s Oaklawn Park card.
The racing is competitive at Oaklawn Park and the field sizes are excellent. The handicapping challenge is REAL but note that the payoffs here are among the best in North America on a consistent basis.
Make sure to listen to Nancy Holthus who does a fine job with the analysis!
Best of luck if you take a stab or two! Play safe and have fun.
Race 1
Most likely winner – #1 Turnstone
Value picks – #4 Florida Bird
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #5 Jeweled Crown
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says……It’s time for another week of great racing at Oaklawn Park!……The first race looks a bit top-heavy and a pair of contenders look particularly strong….#1 Turnstone has had trouble at the break in three of her five starts but raced well last time out and gets another rail draw in a relatively soft field…..Figs definitely make her tough to beat but not a mortal lock….#4 Florida Bird stretches out to a route of ground today and note that trainer W Martin has phenomenal numbers with that maneuver…..7-year old mare consistently hits the ticket and is 3/11 at the distance…..#5 Jeweled Crown is a logical longshot that could cause problems if allowed to get an uncontested lead……Not sure she has the MINERALS to go coast to coast but she is just a few races removed from her lifetime best and is still just 4 years old…..#2 Get One More won her debut at this distance two starts back and now stretches back out in distance today…..Definite contender but will need to take a step forward in the fig department.
FUN WITH NUMBERS…..In 44 allowance races at this distance this meet horses leaving from post positions 7+ are a combined 1/48……Horses leaving from gates 1,2 have won 18/44 races.
UPDATE. 1-2 ham sandwich exacta to start the day buh buh. #5 tried hard then faded. Pick 4 live let’s do ittttttttt.
Finished 4-1-3-9
6.10 2.80 2.20
2.80 2.40
5.00
Ex = $13
Race 2
Most likely winner – ENTRY of #1 Monydontspenitself and #1A Annie’s Candy
Value picks – #4 Storminside
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #3 You’re Killing Me
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says……WHOA NELLIE!….Tough race to get our heads around….We’ll roll with the J Hollendorfer combo of #1 Monydontspenitself and #1A Annie’s Candy.…..Both horses have been working really well in preparation for this event and our guess is that one of these two will be ready to fire a max effort…..#4 Storminside was a game 3rd last time out but will have to deal with a handful of horses dropping in class…..#3 You’re Killing Me gets a monster jockey change to Santana Jr, a drop in class, and a great draw (see below)……#7 Bajan Cash could sweep the field like he did on Jan 31 but we usually avoid these deep closers on the win end if possible…..Same goes for others in here including #9 Freedom Hill who was claimed by leading trainer R Diodoro and makes a turnback after racing at Turf Paradise.
FUN WITH NUMBERS…..In 97 6F claiming races this meet horses leaving from Post 1 have won a solid 22% of the time (27% ROI).
UPDATE. Both parts of the entry raced well. #9 gets it done. Didn’t use him on top this race. P4 live.
Finished 9-1-7-5
7.40 4.00 3.10
3.80 2.70
2.80
Race 3
Most likely winner – #7 Macho Rocco
Value picks – #10 Thornish
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #2 Dinner at Crumpies (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says……#7 Macho Rocco makes a big drop in class today and hasn’t done anything wrong in any of his first three starts other than perhaps being outclassed to the point where there just isn’t enough left in the tank in the lane…..#10 Thornish gets our man Santana Jr back in the irons and note that this horse had a couple of close calls with this jockey before his latest MSW tilt…..#2 Dinner at Crumpies is a major longshot to win but appears more than capable of staggering into 3rd or 4th to spice up the tri and/or super.
FUN WITH NUMBERS…..Horses leaving from post 12 in 6F MCL races this meet are 1/27…..First-time starters in 6F MCL races this meet are 6/135 (-64% ROI) (#5, #12).
UPDATE. SOO-PAA-PAA DOO PAA-PAA. <quotes lame Abba song> P4 live but will pay ham sandwich (#9 wins race 2 means just #10 left this race for us)
#7 the best. #2 did exactly as expected. Any questions?
Finished 7-8-3-2
6.50 4.10 3.10
12.30 7.00
3.80
$1 Super = $1625
Race 4
Most likely winner – #10 Moment
Value picks – #1 Around the Dial, #5 Ernie Banks
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #3 Full of Run (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says……#10 Moment ran a yuuuuuuuuuuuge race last time out here at this distance and will be tough to catch if he get the lead without too much trouble….That won’t be easy from this post and there is a small handful of others that like to GET UP AND GO early….Figs say he will be tough….Trainer R Diodoro has had a great meet but note he has been a bit cold lately by his standards (see below)…..Most likely winner but will almost certainly use most of our gunpowder on the value choices……#1 Around the Dial makes his first start in a route and it’s unclear whether or not he has the pedigree to get the extra ground….We like his racing style and trainer T Amoss is a great conditioner…..Note that he has been a bit cold as well (see below)…..Gets a good draw and Talamo is up once again….#5 Ernie Banks ships in from California and will look to redeem himself after a brutal start last time out…..He has been working like a CHAMP and moves to the Diodoro barn…..#3 Full of Run is a logical horse to get up in the stretch and hit the bottom of the ticket….Proven ability to pass horses and trainer P Holthus is excellent with the sprint to route move.
FUN WITH NUMBERS…..Trainer R Diodoro is the leading trainer at the meet but is on a cold 2/33 run…..He saddles both #5 and #10…..Trainer T Amoss (#1) is on an 0/16 run.
UPDATE. #3 was too good! #1 got 4th. #10 got fried in a speed duel. Good capping, combos used no workeee workeee.
Finished 3-9-6-1
17.00 7.20 4.60
7.60 5.00
6.80
Race 5
Most likely winner – #9 Deanos Cape
Value picks -#1 Urbanite, #4 Marquee Thunder
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says……Will try and beat the probable fav (or near fav) #8 Mo and Go who makes a drop from MSW ranks as many horses are doing the same thing and that last race has us a bit concerned….#9 Deanos Cape gets a drop, a sneaky jockey change to W De La Cruz, and note the fantastic 5F work on April 15…..#1 Urbanite hasn’t done much running in three starts but gets a big drop and features the Santana Jr/Asmussen combo….#4 Marquee Thunder should be a big price given the relatively low speed figs but he makes a big drop and is definitely a threat to make a big step forward is his first start as a 3-yr old……and he has been gelded since his last start….the ultimate equipment change, yo.
UPDATE. How many SCOOP JACKSONS CAN YOU HANDLE?
Finished 1-4-9-12
<contacts Accounting Dept> <buys Iceland>
10.00 5.80 4.40
6.80 4.60
6.60
Ex = $37
Tri = $390
$1 Super = $1698 (20 c = $339)
Race 6
Most likely winner – #10 Exultation
Value picks – #3 Alex’s Strike, #6 Young Phillip
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says……#10 Exultation gets some big time class relief and has the figs to win this race….Trainer P Eurton has done well with limited starters this meet (10/15 top-3) and we like getting J Talamo back in the irons….#3 Alex’s Strike needs to get away just a bit better and be within striking range coming for home…..He gets a drop and sneaky jockey switch to T Baze….#6 Young Phillip has the Santaa Jr/Asmussen pairing and the early speed that suggests he can be a major player…….#9 Bump Bailey is a great bet to hit the ticket but that’s a lot of small slices lately will try and beat him on top.
UPDATE. Argh. #10 loses in a photo. #9 got it done and was the best. P4 is DEEED.
Finished 9-10-4-3
8.70 4.30 3.30
3.40 2.80
3.80
Race 7
Most likely winner – #5 Courting a Kiss
Value picks – #6 Whiskey Echo, #11 Fascilitator
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says……#5 Courting a Kiss gets a good draw, a drop in class, and the solid Mojica/McKnight combo….Slight edge to win but wouldn’t take less than 5/2…..#6 Whiskey Echo makes his 2nd start in the I Mason barn who already has a win today as we go to press….Should be a square price…..#11 Fascilitator moves up a slight notch and gets his 2nd start for the Asmussen barn and a jockey switch to the great Santana Jr…..Figs suggest he could be a major player. Tough race to call….GL!
UPDATE. 2nd and 4th. #3 was just too good on the rail.
Finished 3-11-4-5
11.60 6.40 5.20
5.40 4.00
6.40
Race 8
Most likely winner – #3 Out of Trouble
Value picks – #1 Road Test, #9 Luna Fortis
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #2 Crystal Lake
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says……This should be a fun race to watch and there are many choices that you can roll with in the PENULTIMATE race of the day in Hot Springs…..#3 Out of Trouble gets MEGALOCKS MT RUSHMORE JOCKEY R Santana Jr as the pilot today and comes out of the barn of stellar trainer B Cox….This jockey/trainer combo has been deadly together and this conditioner shows good numbers off the layoff and on the turf/dirt move……She is 0/4 career on fast dirt…..Should get a square price and is our pick to click…..#1 Road Test is in fine form right now and is 3/3 in the top-2 at Oaklawn…..Rail draw is a bonus and last race’s winning jockey A Canchari is back on board…..Will try and beat her on top if the fav as we always do our best to try and find “value”……#9 Luna Fortis makes her 2nd start off the claim for trainer C Contreras and he is on a 9/38 run with respect to that angle (134% ROI)…..We like the rider switch to Garcia…..SURPRISE PACKAGE?……#2 Crystal Lake also gets a good draw and has had road trouble in several of her recent starts….Note that she has been bet fairly heavily in each of her last three starts and might be a bomb to consider….Note that she is 0/8 career on dirt and will need to take a step forward in the fig department……#10 Resurrection Road ships in from MVR (see below) off a win but gets a horrid post for the class/distance combo (see race 1 w/up)……#5 Deputy Dora is a grinding type that has a great shot to hit the top-4 but we won’t use her on top.
FUN WITH NUMBERS…..Horses shipping from Mahoning Valley are 0/10 L365D with only one horse hitting the top-3.
UPDATE. SURPRISE PACKAGE CLUB members UNITE. Believe it.
Finished 9-3-5-6
25.50 8.30 6.20 (WHOA NELLIE)
3.30 3.10
4.60
Ex = $84 (!!)
Tri = $653 (somehow did not have 9-3-all…..checks tickets again……nope)
Let’s get that late double buh buh.
Race 9
Most likely winner – #1 Lucky Betty
Value picks – #2 Seattle Slang, #11 Magine
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #6 Elusive Ride (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park Insider says……#1 Lucky Betty draws a great post and rolls into this event off a big MSW score at this distance (wet track) on April 4…..$145K purchase looks like the horse to beat in the finale…..#11 Magine is in top form and note the figs in two of her last three starts……Not crazy about the outside draw (see race 1 w/up) and she makes her first start at a route of ground…..Will not use her on top if the fav….A must-use in sweet multi-race wagering action….#2 Seattle Slang woke up in her first start off the bench and gets ace pilot R Santana Jr back in the saddle…..Should be a square price……#6 Elusive Ride makes a rise in class off the MCL score and we will try and sprinkle this $100K purchase on the bottom of our vertical wagers….Ability to pass horses is attractive.
UPDATE. Congrats DAILY DOUBLE CLUB.
Finished 1-8-2-11
7.70 4.30 3.00
6.40 4.10
3.20
DD = $114 (let’s do ittttttttttt)