Horse Racing – Will Rogers Downs – April 13, 2020

Hope everyone is hanging in there and all is well with family and friends. For those who wish to partake in a little sweet thoroughbred racing action we have assembled some thoughts for the Will Rogers Downs card for today! The field sizes are good. The racing is underrated. Expect some wacky results. Track announcer John Lies does a great job.

Best of luck if you take a stab or two! Play safe and have fun.


Race 1

Most likely winner – #6 Tiago’s Song

Value picks – #3 Dream Nurse, #5 Ain’t No Fool

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price -#4 Staunch Elaborator

MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…….#6 Tiago’s Song is 0/10 lifetime and is coming off a good performance as the betting choice…She is probably what she is at this point (5 yr old mare) but definitely has the most consistent figs and is the most likely horse to hit the top-two….#3 Dream Nurse is also an 0/10 five year old mare and made our Watch List off her last effort from an outside draw….There are a handful of horses like like to get moving early so her trip may be compromised if not allowed to settle…..#5 Ain’t No Fool makes her debut appearance in a beatable field….Trainer C Padilla is 1/10 with first-time starting maiden claimers but we like the gate work on April 5th and jockey L Luzzi gets the riding assignment…..Check her out in the post parade and see if she looks ready to rumble….#4 Staunch Elaborator made our Watch List off her last start as she lost all chance at the break but tried hard in what was the best performance of her career (0/4)….Running style is not ideal for this distance so any hope for hitting the top of the ticket will depend on getting a good pace setup….Not impossible.

FUN WITH NUMBERS….First-time starters are 3/8 L365 days at this distance in maiden claiming races (winners at 9-2, 4-1, 8-5)……We are normally hesitant to back 5-yr olds in maiden claiming races but over the L365 days at WRD the win% (and impact value) across the age distribution indicates that age is a non-factor (14%, 12%, 13%, 13%; win rates for 3-6 yr olds).

UPDATE. Congrats WATCH LIST CLUB members. Bagged the win. Missed the ex and tri. Now let’s get that daily double.

Finish 3-2-7-8

9.60 5.20 4.20

8.60 7.40

8.20

Race 2

Most likely winner – #8 Quicksilver

Value pick – #1 English Investor, #7 Mega Honor

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #5 Fusaichi Flame (3rd, 4th)

MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…….#8 Quicksilver is going to be tough to beat and is coming an “A” effort according to our RACE REPLAY SQUAD…..The connections are impeccable (Wethey Jr / Pruitt) and he has a good running style for the distance…..#1 English Investor gets a great post (more on that below) and ace jockey T Kennedy is in the irons….Lightly raced 5-year old could upset favorite with a good trip….#10 The Moment is Now (update – scratched) would be very interesting if not for post 10 and the 0/4 mark at the distance…..#2 Touch ‘Em Up leaves the gate like a lead brick on most occasions but should be able to hit the top-4 at mid-range odds…..#7 Mega Honor might get overlooked with the low-key connections but he is 2/9 at the distance and should be on or near the lead coming for home…..#5 Fusaichi gets a good draw and could very well clunk into the top-4 at double digit odds.

FUN WITH NUMBERS…..Post position appears to be key….In the last 365 days at WRD in claiming races at this distance note that posts 7-10 are a combined 1-49 (!) on the win end….The inside three gates have accounted for 25/36 winners. Not saying, just saying.

UPDATE. BOOOOOOOOOOOOM. Ex,Tri,Double. Did not play super or start the pick 5. Argh.

Finish 8-7-5-4

7.00 3.80 3.00

4.20 3.10

4.20

Ex = $26

Tri = $106

Super = $278

DD = $28

Race 3

Most likely winner – #2 Zapit

Value pick – #3 Justaboutright

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #5 Eutychia

MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…….#2 Zapit hasn’t been seen since December but has been working well and will be a pace presence….Note that she is the only 3-yr old in the field….#3 Justaboutright booked an “A” effort last time out and that race was a big move forward from what she accomplished last season….#1 Billie G is 1/11 and we weren’t crazy about her last effort…#6 Shanghai Sally is a contender who’s figs are consistent…..She’s a must use in multi-leg wagers….#5 Eutychia will almost certainly be double digit odds and is 1/20 but is more than capable of spicing up the tri/super in a short field.

FUN WITH NUMBERS…..It was worth some research……3 yr olds in allowance races at WRD over the L365 days for runners 3 and UP have done very well…..19% wins and 1.51 impact value over a 54 race sample.

UPDATE. #6 ran a big one. #2 never gave up. #5 left and then sputtered out. No cashie cashie. Most Pick 4 combos dead need to nail the next three races almost cold.

Finished 6-2-3-1…….zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

5.60 3.20 2.20

3.60 2.60

2.60

Race 4

Most likely winner – #6 Willy Special Cats

Value pick – #4 Gobarrybarry

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #7 Blame It On Jr, #9 Rollin River

MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…….#6 Willy Special Cats is 0/10 lifetime but will try WRD for the first time today and MEGALOCKS JOCKEY MOUNT RUSHMORE member D Cabrera gets the riding assignment…..Figs lay over the field probably just needs to run a “B” race to get the win…..#4 Gobarrybarry has been off since September but drops from the MSW ranks and has a fine work tab on display….Jockey Ty Kennedy has won an impossible 35% of his mounts this meet….#9 Rollin River has a tough post to deal with but drops from a MSW race and note the SPICY workout from the gate on April 4…..#7 Blame It On Jr is not for the risk averse…..He hasn’t been seen since May but makes a class drop and note that he and trainer H Guillory Jr are 2/4 together and seven of Guillory Jr’s ten starters this meet have hit the top-3.

FUN WITH NUMBERS…..Jockey D Cabrera has hit the top-2 in 9/17 mounts this meet…..Trainer K Broberg is off to a bit of a slow start (5/33) by his high standards and note the win ROI has been soul-crushing so far meet this meet (-60%)…..Recall that the jockey/trainer combo on #7 gave our BOMB CLUB members a 12-1 winner last week.

UPDATE. Close to a MONSTER score. Congrats to those who had the place/show on BOMB #7. Raced his eyeballs out and lost by a head. #6 came too late had some traffic to deal with most of the race.

Finished 2-7-6-1

20.80 8.20 4.80

20.00 9.40

2.60

Ex=$429 (arrrrrrgh did not have it)

Tri = $1799

$1 Super = $12274

Race 5

Most likely winner – #5 D R C’s Arm Candy

Value pick – #2 Eurobeauty

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #9 Sword of Azeri

MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says……#5 D R C’s Arm Candy is clearly the horse to beat on paper despite her 0/7 mark…..Nobody has been consistently fast as her maybe this is her day to break the goose egg on the win end….Will look to a pair of first-time starters as alternative plays to the logical fav….#2 Eurobeauty gets a good draw and is bred to do well in her debut….Gate work looks decent on April 5…..#9 Sword of Azeri also has a good gate work on display (March 21) and note the great record that jockey C Esquilin and trainer L Espiritu have together at WRD!….#1 High Profile looks like a promising FTS but note the bad draw (see below)…..#10 Sandy Crest didn’t run a step last time out but takes a drop in class and note the MCL effort on Dec 11.

FUN WITH NUMBERS…..Horses at this distance leaving from post 1 are 0/21 over the last 365D.

UPDATE. Congrats if you found that winner! Dead game at 44-1. Trainer was 0/21 this meet and jockey T Cunningham was 0/33. That’s why they run the races! Our selection #5 had a perfect trip and couldn’t run down the longshot. Remember that when handicapping her next race.

Finished 4-5-3-1

91.40 23.80 11.00

2.60 2.20

4.60

Race 6

Most likely winner – #2 Far Out Kailee

Value pick – #6 Fred’s Country Boy

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #10 Smok’n Policy (3rd, 4th)

MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…..#2 Far Out Kailee gets a good draw and is coming off a Watch List worthy performance…..He is 3/6 at WRD, 5/20 at the distance, and note the strong numbers of the Goncalves/Craddock combo…..If he can replicate one of a few deadly races at this track and distance from last season it could be a wire to wire victory (crosses fingers)….#5 Ben’s Magic Stone is a legit player but he is just 1/25 at the distance and 0/16 L2Y….Very likely to hit the top-four but will look elsewhere for the winner….#6 Fred’s Country Boy wheels back a week after posting a lifetime best and winning effort…..#10 Smok’n Policy has a brutal post position but has been picking off horses late in each of his last three efforts….Maybe he can find a way to stagger into the top-four and spice up the trifecta and superfecta?

UPDATE. HAA. Top 4, 4 for 4 buh buh. Needed the #10 for 3rd for big dollaaa but he was too good LOL. Got the ex missed the tri and super. Pick 3 live but need some interesting horses (or one horse at least) to win a leg. 

Finished 6-10-2-5

4.60 3.30 2.30

11.10 4.70

2.50

Ex=$45

Tri=$125

$1 Super = $169

Race 7

Most likely winner – #1 Paul With All

Value picks – #7 Mayfair Heights, #9 Centergee

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #5 Steeldriver

MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…..WHOA NELLIE!…..Fun way to start the late Pick 4 and this is a really tough race to figure out…..#1 Paul With All is going to be tough to beat from the rail and boasts fine connections…A repeat of his Feb 12 race at the BIG H would probably get him the win in this spot….Both first time starters look SPICY…..#7 Mayfair Heights has a phenomenal work tab, outstanding connections, and is well-bred to get it done in his debut…..#9 Centergee almost boasts an excellent set of workouts and fires out of the deadly S Young barn…..#5 Steeldriver will be a big price and could find his way into the top-four….He comes out of a pair of strong races at OP and has the pace figures to be in the hunt from the word go…..#10 Euro Suprise made our Watch List last time out and is worth considering in multi-leg wagers as is #8 Royally who did well from an outside post first time out…..If the fav doesn’t get it done it could be anyone!

UPDATE. Excellent handicapping. Horses got some slices but no cigar. #5 Steeldriver was apparently a MOBSTER HORSE as he went from 9-1 at MINUS 2 minutes to post to close at 4-1. I guess a shoutout to FRANKIE FOUR FINGERS is in order. #9 got up for 3rd but was not a factor for the win.

Finished 4-5-9-8

5.80 3.40 2.60

4.80 3.60

8.20

Race 8

Most likely winner – #6 Burgameister

Value picks – #5 Explorer, #8 Caledon

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None

MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…..Another tough race to call…..Will try and beat a couple of contenders on the inside in search of a price (but sprinkle in multi-race wagers)…..#1 Iza Daddy has a great post and trainer (R Diodoro) but hasn’t been sharp lately….#2 My Way Out is 5/5 at the distance but tries WRD for the first time….#6 Burgameister fired an “A” effort last time out and is more than capable of doubling-up…..#5 Deep Explorer moves into the fine S Young barn and while he is on a 1/17 run first time off the claim note that he has won with 4 of his last 14 shippers at WRD coming from Sam Houston (22% ROI)…..#8 Caledon has better form than #1 and R Diodoro is on a 7/16 run (42% ROI) moving horses from the Big D to WRD.

UPDATE. #6 had a great trip and puked. #5 had a monster race (will watch replay to confirm) but #4 managed to win the race at 22-1.

Finished 4-5-1-8

47.30 20.50 9.40

5.90 3.80

3.00

Race 9

Most likely winner – #2 Tulle

Value pick – #6 Erebuni

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #1 Smoked Paprika

MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…..Will once again try and sift through the top contenders and take a stand with some perceived value on the top-end…..#2 Tulle is 3/4 at the distance and comes in off a pair of wins at The Big S…..Jockey L Luzzi has been solid this meet at the April 2 work looks good….#6 Erebuni treated us to an “A” effort last time out and the Diodoro/Kennedy combo has been spectacular this meet…..#1 Smoked Paprika might be in over her head but she has fine trainer J P Silva in her corner and she comes in off two big wins at Turf Paradise….#11 Vallestina is the likely fav showing an easy win at Santa Anita in her last race….Work tab is good but note she missed all of 2019 who knows if she can go coast to coast first time at WRD from the outside…..#5 New Year’s Love will also get some support at the windows but she hasn’t been seen on the racetrack in over 300 days.

FUN WITH NUMBERS…..Horses off 300+ days in WRD allowance races L365D are 1/7 (5/7 top 3).

UPDATE. Craziest day of the meet !? Another BOMB. Totally off the mark on this race, but that’s understandable given the finish. Race collapsed and WHOA NELLIE.

Finished 8-9-10-11 (!!)

34.80 16.90 7.70

22.50 11.00

4.00.

Race 10

Most likely winner – #2 Seahawk Wave

Value pick – #11 Handsome Traveler

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #7 Ginge

MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…….#2 Seahawk Wave is going to be tough to beat given the excellent inside draw and impeccable connections (Diodoro/Kennedy)…..#11 Handsome Traveler was a beaten fav in his last start and now takes a drop in class…..He has some early get up and go and note that this is another entry with a solid jockey/trainer combo…..#7 Ginge did well from an outside post last start and finished a strong 3rd (#2 Seahawk Wave was 2nd)……Connections are low key and he is 2/29 but note the ROCKET work on April 8…..Possibility at yuuuge odds.

UDPATE.

Our 18-1 bomb #7 just missed!

Finished 4-7-8-2

10.20 5.40 3.40

15.50 8.20

3.80

GL and see you Tuesday!