Hope everyone is hanging in there and all is well with family and friends. For those who wish to partake in a little sweet thoroughbred racing action we have assembled some thoughts for the Will Rogers Downs card for today! The field sizes are good. The racing is underrated and very competitive.
Track announcer John Lies does a great job!
Best of luck if you take a stab or two! Play safe and have fun.
Race 1
Most likely winner – #6 Delta Surprise
Value picks – None
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #7 Tiger Treats, #9 W G Warrior
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…….#6 Delta Surprise arrives from Oaklawn Park with pace figures that should allow him to win this 5F affair……Note the 0/10 record (?)…Maybe this can be the field that helps break the goose egg?…..#5 Shawn Again is 0/14 and a decent bet to hit the top-3 but we will try and beat him on the win end…..He’s already had three chances to get that first win during the meet….Might be worth taking a couple stabs with some bombs including #7 Tiger Treats who broke slowly in his first start and was forced to gun it….We like the work tab since March and jockey C Esquilin won’t hurt his chances……#9 W G Warrior adds lasix and drops from a MSW race in which he had no shot……He was in the mix a long way on March 17 and could be trouble if allowed to get the lead.
FUN WITH NUMBERS….Horses leaving from post 1 at this distance in the L365D at WRD are now 0/23.
UPDATE. Got the winner. #2 was a good 2nd at big odds did not see that coming. Trifecta dollars go bye bye. Hopefully can bag a daily double.
Finish 6-2-10-1
4.80 3.20 2.50
11.90 6.80
4.10
Race 2
NOTE – #3 Sidepocket Bet was SCRATCHED. Analysis changed 1:30pm EST.
Most likely winner – #1 Right On By
Value pick – #2 Honest N Lucky
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #4 Diamond Legacy, #10 Pricilla Kay (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…….#1 Right On By who did not impress us in either of her last two outings is now the most likely winner after a pair of scratches including our original top choice…..Not crazy about 3/36 record…..#2 Honest Lucky went wire to wire last start and booked an “A” rating according to our RACE REPLAY SQUAD……#4 Diamond Legacy finds an easier spot and will stretch out in distance today (2/3 ITM at 1M)…..Jockey T Cunningham won his first race of the meet yesterday and this horse has some figs that could get her a decent piece of the purse……#10 Pricilla Kay made our Watch List last start, but as with another #10 horse that we liked and hit the ticket at a big price yesterday, we prefer to use her in 3rd and 4th as this is a tough post at 1M.
FUN WITH NUMBERS….Trainer R Diodoro (#1) is 4/21 at this distance at WRD over the L365D with a bankroll draining ROI of -56%……All four of those winners were ridden to victory by T Kennedy.
UPDATE. Congrats RACE REPLAY SQUAD members. Excellent ride by R Flores who was pressured throughout and kept enough in the tank to win convincingly. #1 and #4 were right there and #6 passed them in the lane. Good double. Good win price, didn’t play her to win tho.
8.40 3.60 2.60
4.40 2.80
2.40
Double = $21
Race 3
Most likely winner – #4 Sedaris
Value picks – #5 Lord Stratton, #6 Big Game Hunter
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #3 Valentine Guy (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…….Will once again try and beat a well-regarded horse (or two)…..#1 Morhawk will get some attention but is 1/20 life and 0/9 since the beginning of 2019….(UPDATE – #1 SCRATCHED will not go)……#7 Dak Da Man will need to circle the field and didn’t love his last race…..#4 Sedaris had a decent 2nd place finish last time out at 5/2 and is a very consistent type that should be tough in the lane…. Lord Stratton could take them a long way on the lead and should get an easier trip than last time out…..#6 Big Game Hunter gets a monster jockey change to L Wade who is quietly having a very nice meet (5/19, 10/19 top-3) and that last race was better than it looks on paper….#3 Valentine Guy might be good enough to hit the bottom of the superfecta as the connections are effective at WRD and the workout on April 8 was fabulous…..figs are light but improvement is possible.
UPDATE. Winner. #4 was tons the best. #3 was indeed much improved.
Finished 4-7-3-6.
5.70 2.90 2.30
2.70 2.20
4.10
Race 4
Most likely winner – #2 Concrete Finisher
Value pick – #5 Gone Dancing
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #8 Far Left
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says……#2 Concrete Finisher raced very well from an outside post last time out and gets a much better draw today…..Couldn’t deal with Native River in either of his last two starts….0/13 mark is a worry but this race didn’t come up that tough on paper….5 Gone Dancing comes in from Oaklawn Park and loads up with fine connections (Kimes/Gladd)…..0/10 but first shot at WRD…..#8 Far Left didn’t do much running in either of his two starts but we get blinkers on and a jockey change to L Wade…..Note that two winners have emerged from his last race in which he had a tough trip….Could be a SURPRISE PACKAGE at big odds….#4 Evie’s Prince didn’t impress us last time out but he could improve 2nd time out…..#1 Abstract Paynter is 0/21 and we didn’t like his last effort.
FUN WITH NUMBERS….Jockey C Kimes (#5) has won two races on each of the last two WRD cards after getting off to a bit of a slow start.
UPDATE. Congrats WILL ROGERS DOWNS CLUB. #2 exploded in the final stages to win easily. #8 took them a LONG way on the front end and was really close to hanging on for 2nd…..stopped in the last few yards.
Finished 2-1-4-5
7.40 3.70 2.70
3.90 2.60
2.90
Race 5
Most likely winner – #9 Shell Fire
Value pick – #4 Cairo King
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #2 Sonic Jet, #5 Dont Tell Nobody (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says……#9 Shell Fire drops out of the ALW ranks at the Big S but has the excellent D Cabrera in the saddle….Figs are very consistent but not crazy about the 1/14 record…..#4 Cairo King would be a decent bet if not the favorite…..Has done his best work on turf but S Asmussen is always to be respected as has done well with his limited starters this meet…..#2 Sonic Jet drops out of a WRD allowance race, shows a win at the distance, and also showed some get up and go in a much tougher spot at OP on Feb 17……Might get the right trip in this race given that #6 Native River will likely call the shots….#1 Its Yes has some good figs but is 0/8 at the distance and not crazy about the connections…….#5 Don’t Tell Nobody had one of the most REMARKABLE wins we have seen in a long time…..Got off very poorly and was almost 30 (!) lengths behind at one point…..Didn’t matter…..Came all the way to win……Maybe a late slice for 3rd or 4th.
UPDATE. Had three of the top four, lost the win in a close photo. #5 did indeed get up for 4th but needed the 1 and 4 reversed for the super. Argh.
Finish 1-4-9-5
7.20 4.40 2.80
5.60 3.40
2.60
Race 6
Most likely winner – #4 Woods of Congaree
Value pick – #5 Burbach
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #2 Smilin Cat
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says……#4 Woods of Congaree made our Watch List with his start on March 30 but didn’t fire that well April 7…..That race came up pretty spicy compared to what we will see today so maybe, just maybe, he can get that first career win (0/9)….Figs certainly look good compared to the field…..#5 Burbach has impressed our RACE REPLAY SQUAD in each of his last two efforts….He raced very well from post 12 on March 17th and had the lead deep into his last effort…..Note that he was 5 lengths clear of the 3rd place finisher in that event…..#2 Smilin Cat didn’t do any running in either of his first two efforts but he has been freshened up since December and the Padilla/Ramos combo is 2/5 at WRD……Not sure if this is the distance for him but may be worth a look at yuuuuuge odds…….#1 In the Nic of Time will get some support but recall the poor stats for post 1 at this distance over the last 365D and he hasn’t been seen since July.
UPDATE. RACE REPLAY SQUAD members get another winner. Mobsters must be reading our stuff. Bet down to 2-1.
Finished 5-9-4-6
6.40 3.50 2.10
6.30 2.50
2.10
Race 7
Most likely winner – #11 Lady Laura
Value pick – #2 Pussycat Pussycat
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #3 Ragan’s Jet, #4 Hallies Dream
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says……#11 Lady Laura has the connections and figs that suggest a low-price winner…..She will have to deal with a turnback (1M to 6F) and note that she was defeated at low odds in each of her three starts…..#2 Pussycat Pussycat is bred to win first time out and check out the sweet workout on April 6 along with the great jockey/trainer combo…#3 Ragan’s Jet shows an excellent work tab and recall that trainer J Offolter won TWO races yesterday……#4 Hallies Dream comes in off an “A” race but will need to find a way to get a less-taxing trip…..#8 Quick Calisia has a pair of seconds in a row at this level but is 0/4 and we think she is what she is at this point…..Maybe for a slice…..#1 Quincy Be Quik made our Watch List last start after she was shut off in the stretch…..This looks like a much SPICIER field so will wait for her next start.
FUN WITH NUMBERS……Trainer S Young is 0/4 with FTS in MSW races at WRD over the L365 days.
UPDATE. The #8 got us at 4-1. Congrats to those who backed the winner. #4 and #3 got 2nd and 3rd but since we missed the #8…….yuck. LOL. All over the stick, just missed. That’s horse racing buh buh.
Finished 8-4-3-11
10.30 4.00 3.70
6.90 4.70
9.80
Race 8
Most likely winner – #1 Box Seat
Value pick – #5 Tapsolution
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says……Only a small handful of legit contenders in this race…..#1 Box Seat got an “A” rating last time out and was a beaten fav in his first start off a layoff…..He draws well and will be tough to beat…..#5 Tapsolution makes his 2nd lifetime start for excellent trainer S Asmussen and comes out of a 6F race at Oaklawn Park and will likely move forward off that first effort….Pedigree suggests he can get the distance……#7 Whiskey Factor is 0/5 and not sure he has the MINERALS to win this race on the front end…..#8 Just Ask Joel gets D Cabrera in the irons but will need to take a big move forward and deal with post 8.
UPDATE. Congrats STONE COLD EXACTA CLUB members.
Finished 1-5-8-7
4.00 2.40 2.10
2.80 2.20
2.60
Race 9
Most likely winner – #7 Lindante LATE SCRATCH – MOVE #1 to most likely winner.
Value pick – #1 Sugoi
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #2 March West
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says……#7 Lindante should be able to get a good trip from this post just off the leaders and it doesn’t hurt to have the Cabrera/Broberg combination in your corner….Should appreciate the move back to 1M……#1 Sugoi had a big effort at Turfway Park on March 12 and makes his first start on dirt today…..Will be tough with a clean trip given his proven closing kick (on synthetic)…..#2 March West moves up from the MSW ranks after an “A” effort….Lightly raced colt will need to take a step forward but might surprise at generous odds.
FUN WITH NUMBERS……Horses shipping in from Turfway Park are 1/9 over the L365D (2/9 top 3).
UPDATE. HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA. Finished – 1-8-2-6. Congrats TRI SUPER AND GOD KNOWS WHAT ELSE CLUB members. #2 was 22-1.
6.30 3.80 3.00
3.40 2.80
5.90
Ex = $19
Tri = $257
$1 Super = $729
Race 10
Most likely winner – #1 Keanna
Value pick – #9 Nurse List
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #11 Hushed
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says……#1 Keanna gets a good draw and her last race was decent…..Note that she has a win at this distance with this jockey……#9 Nurse List is an obvious threat to take them wire to wire but she broke our heart last start when looking strong until the SHADOW OF THE WIRE (finished 2nd)…..#11 Hushed should provide some value and is rising in class off an “A” effort….Note that a horse that Hushed beat in here first start (Dream Nurse) came back to win for MEGALOCKS VALUE CLUB yesterday……Might be a SURPRISE PACKAGE with a decent trip.
UPDATE. Cracks champagne. Finished 9-11-1-8. That happened. 1-2-3. Donkey comes 4th. That would be a SCOOP JACKSON. Need to get the accountants on the case. Can we buy Austria? Inquiring minds want to know.
6.80 4.20 2.80
9.20 4.60
2.20
Ex = $69
Tri = $211
$1 Super = $3045 (20 cents = $609)
See ya tomorrow!!