Hope everyone is hanging in there and all is well with family and friends. For those who wish to partake in a little sweet thoroughbred racing action we have assembled some thoughts for the Will Rogers Downs card for today! The field sizes are good. The racing is underrated and very competitive.
Track announcer John Lies does a great job!
Best of luck if you take a stab or two! Play safe and have fun.
Race 1
Most likely winner – #7 Smart Box
Value pick – None
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #8 Lady Abigail, #6 Hobbs Hope (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…….#7 Smart Box comes into this race in fine form and can leave like a rocket which is key at this 5F distance……A few other speed types in here but she appears to have the pace advantage…..Note that she was 2nd last start and well clear of the 3rd place finisher…..#6 Hobbs hope is just 3/41 life and not suited for this distance but she had trouble last time out at 5.5F and has a lot of slices on her record (2nd, 3rd, 4th)…..Could see her grinding her way into the superfecta……#8 Lady Abigail can also get up and go and had a tough trip last time out…..Some of her back races make her a logical longshot……#9 Okie Princess has speed but not sure she will be able to deal with our top pick….#2 Eurodiamond looks like she could get into the mix but she was 48-1 last time out and the race before that came up weak (0/9 next time out winners, only one horse in top 3)….#4 Hooked On A Hit has disappointed in each of her last two efforts but it’s hard to completely ignore the Cabrera/Broberg combo.
FUN WITH NUMBERS….Post 1 is now 0/25 L365D at this distance.
UPDATE. Our man D Cabrera did us in….Proved his worth in the stretch and gets 100% credit for that win. #6 almost upset the apple cart at 11-1. #7 was a major disappointment. No cashie cashie that race.
Finished 4-6-5-9.
19.70 7.80 5.30
10.60 6.50
10.10
Race 2
Most likely winner – #5 Doc Doc Oteka
Value picks – #1 Peppermint Match
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #6 Kreative Kisser, #8 Deeply (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…….#5 Doc Doc Oteka looks like the horse to beat in this event and she got on the Watch List in her last effort…..She has a versatile running style and note that her last race has come up pretty SPICY (one last time out winner, a pair of horses finished 2nd)…..#1 Peppermint Match draws well for the Cabrera/Broberg combo and is a major threat….#6 Kreative Kisser is a NEW SHOOTER coming from TP and she drops from a MSW event, gets a trainer change, and a jockey change to L Luzzi…..#8 Deeply is 0/15 life but has proven ability to pass horses late and could spice up the tri and/or super with a late kick…..#2 You Zip It went a long way up front but we’re not thrilled with the 0/15 mark will try and beat her up top on the ticket……#10 River Liberty made our Watch List off her last start but post 10 is a killer….Tab for next out.
FUN WITH NUMBERS…….Posts 7+ are a combined 0-23 in MCL races L365 at this distance of 1M. Runners from posts 1 and 2 have won 7/11 races. Not saying, just saying.
UPDATE. MEGALOCKS MOUNT RUSHMORE JOCKEY D Cabrera wins again with star trainer K Broberg…..Exacta was juicy but needed #6 or #5 to hit the top for the trifecta. #6 finished really well at got 2nd at 9-1.
Finished 1-6-4-2
7.60 4.60 3.40
9.60 5.80
6.60
Ex = $79 (!!!!!!!!!)
Race 3
Most likely winner – #1 Okie Queen
Value pick – #2 Lil Footnotes
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…….Nice looking race to start the Pick 4…..Will try and beat the likely favorite #4 Karate Hottie in search of a bit of a price <crosses fingers> as she is coming out of a tough race just 9 days ago in which she was used start to finish at 1M….#1 Okie Queen is 3/4 and will be tough to beat from the rail….Trainer J Offolter has bagged a pair of wins this week….#2 Lil Footnotes hasn’t been seen since September and moves into the A Williams barn….Note that she fired fresh last year off a long layoff and scored a big win…..Workouts look good…..Could be a SURPRISE PACKAGE……#3 Girls a Bullet is a definite contender but may have too far to come in the stretch……Must use for Pick 4 action…..#6 Backseat Promises is another that will be heard from late and is not impossible…..#5 Maria Chuchena gets jockey L Goncalves who is having a fine meet but she will need to take a big move forward to take all the marbles.
FUN WITH NUMBERS…….#2 Lil Footnotes has been off 217 days….Horses coming off layoffs of 200+ days in WRD allowance sprints are 3/12 L365 with a good win and place ROI (72%, 18%).
UPDATE. Broberg/Cabrera 3 straight! #2 got us a decent exacta (game 2nd) but Pick 4 is dead wanted the 1,2 or 3.
Finished 4-2-3-1
5.80 3.60 2.40
7.00 3.80
2.60
Ex = $45 (!!!)
Race 4
Most likely winner – #8 Rubber Bandman
Value picks – #7 Eurobadguy
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #3 Euroeast
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…….Will try and beat #6 Crossing Dixie on the win end this race but he is still a must use in multi-leg wagers….Feel more confident about him for 2nd and 3rd and he has gotten off very slowly in each of his last three starts…..#8 Rubber Bandman has the most upside in our view….2 starts back was an “A” effort according to our hard working RACE REPLAY SQUAD and he broke slowly in a tough race last time out…..Feel like he might get a good stalking trip….#7 Eurobadguy boasts a trainer that is 0/19 this year BUT he does get MEGALOCKS MOUNT RUSHMORE JOCKEY D Cabrera to ride today…..Faced a monster last race who won by seemingly 90,000 lengths…..#3 Euroeast takes a drop and made our Watch List two starts back…..Might be worth a flyer at juicy odds.
UPDATE. We have been doing this for over 30 years and can’t remember the last time we have seen a jockey or driver (standardbred) win the first four races. That’s why D Cabrera is on the MT RUSHMORE of jockeys at MEGALOCKS HQ……Didn’t have him bet to win this race but let’s get that pick 3 buh buh.
7.60 3.70 3.20
4.20 3.00
9.70
Race 5
Most likely winner – #8 Drip Brew (Best Bet)
Value pick – #6 #Ima Discreet Lady
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…….Chalky looking race and we are down to a field of six…..#8 Drip Brew booked an “A” performance last time out, loves to win (12/44), and loves the distance (5/9)……#6 Ima Discreet Lady is the logical 2nd choice and has solid connections….Note she was 32-1 in the same race as Drip Brew and we graded her a “B”…..Could upset the apple cart with a good trip……..#4 Ship Shape Miss is interesting but we will give her a start (see below).
FUN WITH NUMBERS…….Horses off 180+ days or more (#4) are 1/12 L365 at WRD at 5F. Only one other horse hit the top 3.
UPDATE. Congrats STONE COLD EXACTA CLUB members. #8 was the best (and not the fav….congrats win bettors) but D Cabrera almost bagged his 5th straight win on #6. Hammered a few P3 combos let’s get that last race buh buh.
Finished 8-6-7-3
4.40 2.20 2.10
2.20 2.10
4.60
Race 6
Most likely winner – #5 Al Shamkhah
Value picks – #7 Spun Easy, #8 Baladera
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…….Many ways to go in the final leg of the pick 5…..#5 Al Shamkhah comes in from the Big S and has strong connections in his corner (AsmussenLuzzi) to go along with a favorable draw…..We will try and beat #3 Cypress Point who has good early speed but note that she is 2/7 on turf and 0/5 when racing off the lawn…..#7 Spun Easy is a great alternative who is showing fabulous works and she is 1/1 at the distance….She is the only major contender that is a 3 yr old…..# Baladera is 2/3 at the distance and shows fine recent form at Oaklawn.
UPDATE. Argh. #3 goes coast to coast and earned it. #5 for Santana Jr!!
Finished 3-5-7-10. 2nd and 3rd. No cigar.
8.10 3.80 2.80
3.40 2.40
3.30
Race 7 ……(EXPERIMENTAL FORMAT ALERT…..LET US KNOW IF YOU LIKE)
#1 Ranger Rob – 1/14 overrated don’t like his last race. Will take some $. Connections solid.
#2 He’s Note Worthy – Nope.
#3 Money Baron – Moves up off MCL win. 3 yr old (?). <potential bomb>
#4 Okie Note – Good figs but leaves slowly and this race is 5.5F. Top 3 call more likely 2,3.
#5 Elijah Anet – “A” effort last. 2nd race back a pair of last out winners and place horses. <most likely winner>
#6 Oklahoma Storm – Trouble last. Watch List member. Was 63-1 last start? <value pick>
#7 Alluvial Fan – 1/24 lifetime but not impossible. Dec 5 race solid.
#8 Sports Minister. Never.
UPDATE. Finished 5-7-8-1. Most likely winner. Missed the tri. Pick 4 alive.
3.50 2.50 2.20
6.80 5.00
15.60
Race 8
Most likely winner – #3 Ninethirtyturbo
Value picks – #1 O S U Kickoff, #7 Tavner
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…….#3 Ninethirtyturbo had a CRACKER of an “A” race last time out and is well spotted to hit BACK TO BACK JACKS…..#1 OSU Kickoff also boasts an “A” race last time out and has license to improve…..#7 Tavner gets a monster jockey change to D Cabrera and could move forward 2nd time off the layoff.
UPDATE. Congrats MOST LIKELY WINNER CLUB AND BEYOND members. Finished 3-6-1-7. All three picks hit the top 4 buh buh.
5.40 3.70 2.80
5.60 4.20
4.20
Race 9
Most likely winner – #4 Gentrified
Value picks – #2 Eagle Pass
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #7 Gold Buyer
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…….#4 Gentrified has figs that lay over the field and jockey D Cabrera is 2/2 today as we go to press….Gentrified is 0/3 at the distance (?)…..#2 Eagle Pass gets a late jockey change to S Bermudez and is 4/5 in the top 3 at the distance……Versatile racing style is a plus, yo……#7 Gold Buyer has been working like a CHAMP and has license to improve as a 4 yr old.
UPDATE. The hits keep coming! All three in the top 4. #7 gets up for 2nd at 16-1. Sweet exacta. Win 4 live buh buh.
Finished 2-7-3-4
5.60 4.10 3.10
13.40 7.20
3.90
Ex = $60
Race 10
Most likely winner – #3 Golden Lullabye
Value picks – #6 Dial Em In
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #9 Lady Lex (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says…….#2 Brew Casa has a jockey/trainer combo that is 3/3 (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) today as we go to press but will try and beat her on the win end as she doesn’t have the best racing style for this distance and is 2/14…..#3 Golden Lullabye raced well last start and now faces easier company with a trainer/jockey combo that has good success….#6 Dial Em In has the epic J/T pairing of T Kennedy and R Diodoro and has back to back “A” races…..Figs look a bit light but this is the most likely horse to hit the top-2…..#9 Lady Lex is a good option for those looking for an underneath horse in their vertical wagers……she made the Watch List last start but not sure she is fast enough to win the race.
UPDATE. #9 much the best! Pick 4. Somehow missed the exotics needed #9 for 3rd/4th this race. Nice way to finish off great day of handicapping and racing.
Finished 9-2-5-6
12.30 6.20 4.60
6.10 4.20
11.00
Ex = $65 (woudda been nice argh)
Tri = $1474 (argh)
$1 Pick 4 = $158 (ham sandwich, but not horrible)
GL and enjoy the racing!!