Horse Racing – Will Rogers Downs – April 20, 2020

Hope everyone is hanging in there and all is well with family and friends. For those who wish to partake in a little sweet thoroughbred racing action we have assembled some thoughts for the Will Rogers Downs card for today! The field sizes are good. The racing is underrated and very competitive.

Track announcer John Lies does a great job!

Best of luck if you take a stab or two! Play safe and have fun.


Race 1

Most likely winner – #10 Deja Sue

Value picks – #2 Lakeside Romance

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #3 Zipped

MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says……It’s time for another great week of racing at Will Rogers Downs!……Will try and take down the likely favorite on the win end…..#11 Hong Kong Helen ships in from Sam Houston and brings with her a lifetime mark of 0-7….She has burned a lot of money (beaten fav four times) and doesn’t have an ideal racing style….May have too far to come late….Figs say a top-4 finish is highly likely but let’s hope it’s for a smaller slice……#10 Deja Sue drops from a MSW event and we know that this is one of the most advantageous class moves in horse racing….She showed good early pace in her debut event in November and then faded….Last time out she had a difficult start and there was no chance to get into the thick of things…..Note that she was well bet in each of her two outings and has excellent connections in her corner (Wethey/Young)…..#2 Lakeside Romance should provide a nice price and will almost certainly be well-positioned coming for home….Was well spotted last time out and didn’t fire….Note the jockey change to Ty Kennedy who is tied for 1st at the meet with 19 wins as we go to press……#3 Zipped is a decent-looking first-time starter and note that trainer K Nolen is 1/1 with FTS maiden claimers at WRD over the L365 days and that winner was ridden by today’s jockey J Medina…..Recent works are promising and she has slightly above-average breeding in terms of winning first time out.

FUN WITH NUMBERS…..In the last L365D there have been 11 MCL races at 6F and the morning line favorite is 0/11 with six second place finishes (#11)……Will the fav be snakebit again?….Horses leaving from posts 8+ are a combined 0/13 in those events……Small sample obviously but that could mean a better trip for #2 vs #10 and #11.

UDPATE. Congrats MEGALOCKS WILL ROGERS DOWNS CLUB members. Most likely winner goes off at an insane 6-1. Runs off the screen. Missed the ex and tri. Let’s get that double buh buh.

Finished 10-5-7-4

14.60 7.40 5.50

16.00 11.90

22.40

Race 2

Most likely winner – #5 Thorpe d’Oro

Value picks – #1 Edge of Ackworth, #6 Added Attraction

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None

MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says……Tricky claiming event to navigate from a handicapping perspective as we kick off the Pick 5……#5 Thorpe d’Oro is at the top of his game and note his last three figs that are significantly better than what he had shown for a while…Any of those performances if repeated today make him tough to beat…..Our worry would be the 0/9 record on dirt and 0/3 mark at the distance but he seems to be an entirely different animal right now so we’ll give him a slight edge….#6 Added Attraction gets the deadly D Cabrera / K Broberg combo and note that they won an impossible FOUR races together last Wednesday….He shows good early speed but has just 5 wins compared to 14 combined place and show finishes….#1 Edge of Ackworth will need to take a step forward in the fig department but draws well (see below) and has hot trainer J Arnett calling the shots (4/11 this meet; 8/11 top-3)…..This trainer had him going well last year…..#8 Hickory Hill has a big shot but we’re a bit leery of his come-from-behind racing style….Good bet to hit the ticket but prefer a few others on top….#9 Blended Lute was a big winner for MEGALOCKS BOMB CLUB on April 6 when he recorded a lifetime best Beyer figure whilst winning at 21-1……Post is tough and it remains to be seen if he can duplicate that performance.

FUN WITH NUMBERS…..In the 18 claiming races this meet at 6F horses leaving from post 1 have won five times (28%)…….Posts 1-4 have booked the winner in 14/18 races…..Horses shipping from Sunland Park have been ok this meet (#1)…….5/22 with a -12% ROI…..All winners were less than 5-1 closing odds.

UPDATE. Congrats DAILY DOUBLE CLUB. Love us some D Cabrera.

Finished 6-2-9-5

10.20 5.40 4.10

15.30 8.80

4.50

Double = $89 (!!)

Race 3

Most likely winner – #5 Valiant Appeal

Value picks – #2 Flatout Winner, #7 Strong Side

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #9 Mas Takela (3rd, 4th)

MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says……The top-three horses are hard to separate on paper but we’ll do our best….#5 Valiant Appeal has had a pair of sharp efforts after returning from a long layoff and note those two figs were MUCH better than what he put up as a youngster….4 yr old should be able to fire another strong race……#2 Flatout Winner makes his 2nd start off a layoff and there was nothing wrong with the first effort at Sam Houston considering he had been off since October…..Could be sharper today and trainer G Tracy has had a good year so far (27% wins)….#7 Strong Side is a major player and is coming off an “A” performance according to our RACE REPLAY SQUAD……Cabrera/Broberg combo is in-play once again…..#9 Mas Takela is our choice to try and spice up the bottom of vertical wagers….Figs will need to improve but he’s been off since September and makes his first start as a four year-old….He shows a pair of really good 5F works and trainer M Biehler shows good results with fresh horses making their first start off the bench.

UPDATE. D Cabrera bags us a ham sandwich.

Finished 7-5-1-2

7.90 3.40 2.80

3.10 2.40

Ex=$24

Race 4

Most likely winner – #3 Nocturnal Mission (Best Bet)

Value picks – #5 Silky Appeal (NOTE – SCRATCHED – will not go) using #6 Bella Krista instead.

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None

MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says……#3 Nocturnal Mission is sure to be a VERY low price but lays over the field on paper…..She is the fastest horse in the race and has the DEADLY combo of jockey T Kennedy and trainer R Diodoro in her corner…..Comes in off an “A” race and would be a surprise if she didn’t win this event….but this is horse racing so you never know!……#5 Silky Appeal is probably the best bet to upset the apple cart but she will need to come from far back and hope for something KOOKY to happen up front and maybe provide her with the opportunity to pass them all in the lane….Note that jockey S Bermudez is on board and he’s been a fine addition to the deep rider colony (4/8; 6/8 top-3).

UPDATE. Not hard to find that winner buh buh.

Finished 3-6-4-1

2.10 2.10 2.10

3.20 2.60

3.90

Race 5

Most likely winner – #3 Tapindeed

Value picks – #9 Leighton Kentucky, #10 Sliver Moon Rising

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None

MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says……#3 Tapindeed looks like the logical choice in this claiming event…..She got on our Watch List off the March 24 effort and graded out “B” in her last race….Figs stack up nicely and she is 3/9 at the distance…..She also loves to win (14/37)…..#9 Leighton Kentucky was the first horse this meet to hit the Watch List in back-to-back starts….Co-leading rider at the meet F Wethey Jr gets back aboard and she is a really nice racehorse that fires almost every time….Primary concern is the field has a lot of speed types competing so she may have to work too hard once again…..Should be a square price…..#10 Silver Moon Rising comes out of the same race as our top choice and gets a sneaky jockey change to C Kimes…….She was right there in the stretch last time out and has a few figs in her history that suggest she could be a SURPRISE PACKAGE……#7 College Queen will be coming late but we prefer others on top (update SCRATCHED – Will not go).

UPDATE. Congrats SURPRISE PACKAGE SUBSCRIBERS. #10 draws off like a GOOD THING.

Finished 10-12-6-2

13.10 7.20 5.80

16.00 10.90

31.70

Race 6

Most likely winner – #1 Spendaholic

Value picks – #6 Champagne’s On Ice, #7 Recorder

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None

MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says……Will try and beat the favorite #8 Gambler who making his 2nd start off the claim for trainer K Broberg…..Gets a worse post this time around and we didn’t love his last race……He’s obviously a major player that needs to be used in multi-race wagers but those looking for some value my try some different options…..#1 Spendaholic comes in from OP can gets a great post to work with today…..R Diodoro is tied for the training lead at the meet with 17 wins as we go to press…..#7 Recorder has great connections (Goncalves / Arnett) and ran a better race (in our estimation) in the heat #8 was a part of on March 30…..#6 Champagne’s On Ice moves up off an “A” MCL score and has the Diodoro/Kennedy combo in his favor……#2 Winter Wolf is worth a look given the inside draw and horrible trip he suffered last time out….Won’t bet him to win but will include in sweet P3 and P4 action.

UPDATE. Congrats PICK 4 CLUB. Ham sandwich but we’ll take it. Decent exacta.

Finished 7-8-2-1

12.70 4.80 3.20

3.50 2.60

3.90

Ex = $39

$1 P4 = $163

Race 7

Most likely winner – #3 Sweet Mary M

Value picks – #2 Bright Bling, #9 Casino Queen

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #4 Long Ride Home

MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says……#3 Sweet Mary M is going to be tough to handle today and comes in off an “A” race in which she dominated wire to wire….She has a fine boxscore and ace jockey L Goncalves is back in the irons…#2 Bright Bling had a good effort last time out and held 2nd when losing to Okie Queen (won by over 4 lengths)…..She has been well bet in each of her last four races and shows a good work on April 15….#9 Casino Queen had a fantastic “A” race last time out and gets MEGALOCKS MT RUSHMORE JOCKEY D Cabrera on board for today’s rise in class…..Could work out a good trip from outside but note the post stats below…..#4 Long Ride Home is RAZOR sharp and 2/2 out of the S Young barn….She moves up in class and will need to improve those figs quite a bit to win this race but she is a lightly-raced 3 yr old and could certainly do the trick at spicy odds…..#11 Keena made our Watch List last start but has to deal with a tough post today…..Not sure her running style is a good fit for 5.5F but if she goes off at double-digit odds she could enhance the payoffs of those vertical wagers.

FUN WITH NUMBERS…..In 13 races at this distance L365D in allowance races the inside THREE post positions have booked 11/13 winners. No winner has come from outside post 7. It’s a small sample for sure, but interesting nonetheless.

UPDATE. Oops. No cashee cashee. Our horses mixed it up. That was it. Didn’t love the winner who was 9/5. Congrats to those who nailed that one!

Finished 8-11-2-5

5.80 3.60 2.60

6.70 3.90

3.20

Race 8

Most likely winner – #1 Rookie Season

Value picks – #3 Jazz Music, #6 Moro Appeal

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #9 Ray’s Angel

MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says……#1 Rookie Season should be able to control the race from the rail and he moves back into a claiming race today…..The connections are deadly but note the possible trouble with post 1 (see below)…..#3 Jazz Music comes in off an “A” effort but may need to run a lifetime best Beyer fig to emerge victorious…..The Kennedy/Diodoro combo is always a bonus and he might be best suited to employ the tactics he used in his March 17th race….#6 Moro Appeal travels in from Sam Houston and takes a drop in claiming price….D Cabrera is in the irons and he shows a pair of good recent works at 4F…..#5 Nacogdoches is a contender and good bet to hit the top-3 but we are a little concerned about his racing style at this short distance…..Include in multi-leg wagers…..#9 Ray’s Angel may get overlooked in his first start off the bench but trainer M Biehler is good in this scenario…..Workout pattern is solid but post/jockey combo not ideal….May need a start.

FUN WITH NUMBERS…..In 32 races L365D at this distance in claiming events post 1 has been the worst performing spot on the gate (2/32).

UPDATE. #9 was indeed ready to roll. 95% of cash was NOT using him on top (used in pick 3 only) so not an optimal result LOL. He was bet down to 4-1 wanted a lot higher odds. MOBSTERS ready our stuff again.

Finished 9-1-4-5

10.80 4.80 3.80

3.40 2.60

11.20

Ex = $36 (somehow didn’t have it)

Race 9

Most likely winner – #4 She’s All Wolfe

Value picks – #7 The One For Fun

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None

MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says……Very competitive feature race in which you can make a case for every filly….Going to go with a theory that the pace might be a bit spicy and therefore will give the edge to a couple that have proven they can come from off the pace…..#4 She’s All Wolfe comes in from Oaklawn and gets a monster jockey switch to F Wethey Jr…..Can see her sitting just off the pace and possibly getting it all…..#7 The One for Fun comes in off an “A” race and also looks like a filly that could take advantage of any battle that may occur up front…..Goncalves is back in the irons and she comes in off a lifetime best Beyer fig…..#5 Kallie Sioux is a must-use in multi-race wagers….She raced big last time out but now tries a route of ground for the first time…..Note that all 8 of her competitors from her last race failed to win next time out.

UPDATE. WHOA NELLIE. Winner, but hammered to to 0.40 to 1. Missed the tri. Needed 4-ALL-7. Pick 3 on respirator. Will sweat out the ham sandwich payout.

Finished 4-6-2-7.

2.80 2.20 2.10

7.20 4.80

4.40

Race 10

Most likely winner – #8 Grey Sky Mesa

Value picks – #2 Righteous Mover, #5 Red Red Wine

Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None

MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Insider says……A potentially chalky end to the day may be in store for us……but you have to tune and and watch to be sure!…..#8 Gray Sky Mesa will try and go coast to coast off the drop in class and note the jockey change to R Eikleberry…..1/8 lifetime but almost certainly the one to catch in the lane…..#2 Righteous Mover has been ok in each of her last two starts and has excellent trainer S Young in her corner (already one win today as we go to press)….She also takes a drop in class…..#5 Red Red Wine was a MEGALOCKS BILLIONAIRE CLUB winner back on April 6 at 12-1…..She moves up off a MCL win and is the horse we will look to if 5-1 or more.

UPDATE. That’s a SCOOP JACKSON buh buh.

Finished 5-8-2-10.

10.60 4.40 2.80

3.00 2.20

2.40

$1 Pick 3 = $82

Ex = $35

Tri = $106

Dn play super duper.

Tuesday card up next!

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