Hope everyone is hanging in there and all is well with family and friends. For those who wish to partake in a little sweet thoroughbred racing action we have assembled some thoughts for the Will Rogers Downs card for today! The field sizes are good. The racing is underrated and very competitive.
Track announcer John Lies does a great job!
Starting TODAY – there are rolling daily doubles and rolling Pick 3 wagers. Believe it.
Best of luck if you take a stab or two! Play safe and have fun.
Race 1
Most likely winner – #7 Mr Midtown
Value picks – #5 Port Aggregate, #8 Consumerconfidence (NOTE – SCR – move #9 up to this spot)
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #2 Awesome Gordo
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Deep Insider says………Welcome to another day of racing at Will Rogers Downs!! Best of luck and enjoy the racing action…….#7 Mr Midtown gets a slight nod in the opening event that has lots of interesting options….We like the draw and the connections (Luzzi/Young) and feel that he can control the race given his pace figures….#5 Port Aggregate is light in the speed department but trainer J Arnett has been GREAT this meet (18; 12/18 top-3) and check out the trainer stats below….#8 Consumerconfidence hasn’t won a race since 2018 but definitely fits in this group from a figs perspective and he just missed last time out….#2 Awesome Gordo is 12-1 ML but may see a bit more action given that ace jockey F Wethey Jr is back aboard….Then again…..He was 12-1 last time out…..Our RACE REPLAY SQUAD has graded him with “B” efforts back to back…..Should be coming late……#10 Producer leaves from a tough post and not sure how much he will have in the tank racing back with a 6-day layoff….#9 Survey races out of the potent Diodoro barn and is a legit contender….We will try and beat him on the win end given the tough post.
FUN WITH NUMBERS…..Trainer J Arnett (#5) is on a 6/16 run bringing horses in from Sunland Park (224% ROI) and a 9/27 run stretching out horses from a sprint to a route (186% ROI)……Horses leaving from the outside post in 1M claiming races have not fared well this meet….Posts 9-10 are a combined 0/14 and Posts 7-10 are a combined 3/58.
UPDATE. Late switch to #9 after scratch of #8. Did not have a win bet (argh) but have a few doubles going. Not an optimal result. Hopefully can scrounge some money out of the double pool buh buh. #7 was hit early by #1. #9 had the trip. #10 gets full marks for an outside journey and kept coming.
Finished 9-10-4-7 (Note – #9 was post #8)
13.20 6.00 3.80
5.40 3.60
4.00
Race 2
Most likely winner – #3 Brew Casa
Value picks – #7 Apple County, #8 Nurse List
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #2 Final Design (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Deep Insider says…….Feels like a good bet that one of the top three horses will take this race….#3 Brew Casa comes out of an “A” race and boasts the deadly Broberg/Cabrera combo…..Racing style and figs suit….Logical fav…..#7 Apple County comes in razor sharp off back-to-back “A” efforts and also has our preferred racing style…..She is 2/24 life but is our top choice to upset the APPLE cart…..#8 Nurse List has been good to MEGALOCKS WILL ROGERS MILLIONAIRE CLUB this meet but is a need-the-lead type that could be compromised late….A must-use in multi-leg wagers……#2 Final Design could spice up the vertical wagers and get a piece of the ticket….Figs are light but T Kennedy stays aboard and she has a license to improve as a lightly-raced 4-yr old.
FUN WITH NUMBERS…..The Cabrera/Broberg combo is 11/33 L20D with a 19% win ROI.
UPDATE. Good news and bad news. Good. Hit the win and jooocy double. Bad. Somehow didn’t have 7-3-all-2 super and didn’t play the tri. #3 got screwed by a GODZILLA horse (loses jockey, rampages randomly causing carnage). P3 live into race 3 let’s do ittttttt.
Finished 7-3-9-2
15.80 4.30 3.20
2.30 2.10
7.30
DD = $85 (!) (lucked into that bad boy after scratch of #8 in R1)
Race 3
Most likely winner – #9 Our Vision
Value picks – #5 To the Front, #7 Tommyhawk
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #11 El Vale
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Deep Insider says…….#9 Our Vision has the excellent Wethey Jr/Young pairing and shows a really nice set of workouts…..Figs are solid and will be tough to beat…..#5 To the Front is eligible to improve in his 2nd start and note that he is shipping in from Oaklawn Park…..Workout tab is excellent….SURPRISE PACKAGE ALERT…..#7 Tommyhawk made our Watch List last time out and is another horse that could improve 2nd time out…..#11 El Vale is a $250K purchase that makes his first start….Note the fine work on April 14.
UPDATE. Congrats SURPRISE PACKAGE CLUB members. Pick 3 was decent. Sadly missed the ex and tri. <insert burning money bags>
Finished 5-10-9-3
10.60 5.50 3.30 (yes, guy)
8.60 4.20
2.60
P3 = $200
Race 4
Most likely winner – #5 Stephen’s Answer
Value picks – #2 Lindante, #9 Deep Explorer
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #7 Uncail
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Deep Insider says…….#5 Stephen’s Answer looks like a tough out in this spot given figs that stand out in this field and the impeccable Diordoro/Kennedy combination….#2 Lindante was a bit of a disappointment last time out but still has MEGALOCKS MT RUSHMORE JOCKEY D Cabrera in the irons and note he is 3/12 at the distance….#9 Deep Explorer is a Watch List member given his April 13 effort and you know we love us some Wethey Jr/Young……#7 Uncail is a MISSILE that will go as far as he can….Not sure he has the minerals but a good bomb to take a stab upon and note the fine work on April 11.
FUN WITH NUMBERS…..In 14 races at this class and distance this meet note that there has only been one winner of 6-1+.
UPDATE. Congrats TOP 3 SCOOP CLUB members.
Finished 2-5-9-3
13.10 5.10 3.00
2.60 2.20
3.40
Ex = $32
Tri $109
DD = $69
Race 5
Most likely winner – #1 Los Suenos
Value picks – #9 Chiron Eclipse
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #2 Mizmoney, #6 Lucky Liza Ann
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Deep Insider says…….#1 Los Suenos is 0/12 but should be able to take this field a long way from post 1…..Note that the winner in each of her last two races has come back to win next time out…..#9 Chiron Eclipse gave a fine effort first time out and now gets a drop in class…..Our PICK TO CLICK in terms of a non-fav winner on the card…..#2 Mizmoney is not for the risk averse….she struggled late last year but makes her first start this year and gets a weak field……Don’t love the racing style but not a horrible bomb to throw in your multi-leg wagers….#6 Lucky Liza Ann is an interesting first time starter that could SHOCK THE WORLD…..Would consider this horse “live” if odds are below 10-1.
UPDATE. Argh. Didn’t have #11 on top.
Finished 11-8-6-2
7.90 3.70 3.00
4.10 3.10
6.50
Race 6
Most likely winner – #1 Rocky Boy Indian
Value picks – #7 Mega Honor, #8 Fusaichi Flame
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – None
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Deep Insider says…….#1 Rocky Boy Indian stretches out in distance (0/3) but gets a great draw and has solid connections……He graded out as a “B” last start and is a good bet to finish in the top-3…..Let’s hope he gets his nose first on the wire….#3 Ben’s Magic Stone has the great Cabrera/Broberg combo but is 0/17 2L2Y and will try and beat him on top…..#7 Mega Honor comes in off an “A” race and should be in the mix coming for home….#8 Fusaichi Flame finished well last start after having no shot in his 2nd to last race after a tough start….Note the sneaky jockey switch to S Bermudez.
UPDATE. #1 got the nose down buh buh. No exotics. P3 and DD live.
Finished 1-5-9-7
6.10 3.90 3.20
5.70 4.10
11.10
Race 7
Most likely winner – #10 Ten Count Out
Value picks – #1 Lazzarella, #7 Daneira
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #12 Veronica’s Dream
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Deep Insider says…….#10 Ten Count is the most likely winner and should be able to take this field coast to coast….We aren’t crazy about the layoff (6 days) or post position but she is deadly at this distance and has Cabrera as the pilot…..#1 Lazzarella has won 50% of her starts L2Y and gets ace jockey Goncalves in the irons……#7 Daneira is 0/5 at the distance but gets Wethey Jr aboard and competitive figs…..Probably will be the WISE GUY HORSE……#12 Veronica’s Dream drops in class and shows a win two races back……4/11 life and might be overlooked…..#6 I’mthebossrightnow is a must-use in multi-race wagers but will try and beat her on top in the tri and super.
UPDATE. Congrats STONE COLD DD CLUB. Ham sandwich but we all need to eat, yo. Tri bets are DEEEED.
Finished 10-11-12-7
8.00 4.80 3.30
5.60 3.70
2.60
DD = $24
Race 8
Most likely winner – #8 Baydar
Value picks – #1 Fool’s Paradise, #3 Blue Moonrise
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #9 Flirty (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Deep Insider says…….Our apologies but we can’t be too creative in this spot….#8 Baydar is the logical fav after his devastating performance and win on March 24…..She hasn’t been seen on the track since that win so……?…….We’ll probably end up taking a stab with our value choices……#1 Fool’s Paradise was 2nd to our top choice last race and is eligible to turn the tables this time out….Note that she was the fav last race and gets a better draw than Baydar…..#3 Blue Moonrise is the NEW SHOOTER that has a TON of early foot and and great set of connections……Would rather take (1,3) vs singling (#8) in multi-leg wagers but it’s up to you…..#9 Flirty is a great option to hit the bottom of the ticket and we love the way S Bermudez has been riding during the meet.
UPDATE. Congrats HAM SANDWICH PICK 3 AND DAILY DOUBLE CLUB.
Didn’t have the exacta tho despite it being obvious.
Finished 3-1-10-8
5.80 3.40 2.80
4.70 3.40
7.50
Ex = $19
DD = $24
$1 P3 = $35
Let’s do ittttttt.
Race 9
Most likely winner – #6 Three Chords
Value picks – #9 Fiddlers Tsunami
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #1 Country Daisy (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Deep Insider says……#6 Three Chords has the figs and class to deal with this group and you know it’s a good thing when you have D Cabrera in your corner……Racing style is a perfect fit for the distance…..#9 Fiddlers Tsunami gets another tough post but is razor sharp and 5/13 at WRD (10/13 top-3)……#1 Country Daisy has the look of a double-digit horse that can clunk up into the top-4 and spice up the vertical wagers.
UPDATE. HAAAA. MEGALOCKS BOMB CLUB knows this happens from time to time. #1 Country Daisy was TOO GOOD and won it all at 28-1.
Finished 1-2-9-10
58.00 18.60 9.70
5.60 3.80
3.60
Race 10
Most likely winner – #7 Ride to the Wire
Value picks – #4 Baysider
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #9 Rock Pache
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs Deep Insider says……#7 Ride to the Wire is a logical fav given the BIG TIME win last start and the impeccable connections….Will be extra tough if he can find his 2018 form……#4 Baysider is an interesting alternative option that has us thinking it may be SPICY to focus on an upset…..He ships in from LP and has been working really well…..#9 Rock Pache should be yuuuuuge odds and might be a spicy option if you are looking for a bomb…..#1 Ginge was a close call at 19-1 for MEGALOCKS BOMB CLUB last start but will try and beat him on top.