Hope everyone is hanging in there and all is well with family and friends. For those who wish to partake in a little sweet thoroughbred racing action we have assembled some thoughts for the Will Rogers Downs card for today! The field sizes are good. The racing is underrated. Expect some wacky results. Track announcer John Lies does a great job.
Best of luck if you take a stab or two!
Race 1
Most likely winner – #6 Nocturnal Mission
Value pick – #1 Shallow River
Potential bomb to hit the ticket at a big price – #3 Quiet Spring
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs INSIDER says……”Chalky way to start the card…..High probability that one of the #2 or #6 wins the race…..Trainer R Diodoro on fire to start the meet (28% wins, 72% ITM, -17% ROI tho) and he’s been especially deadly when paired with jockey T Kennedy (36% wins, 80% ITM, 6% ROI)….Not crazy about the 2/20 record but note this is just the 2nd start with Diodoro…..#2 Golden Lullabye gets L Luzzi up (3/9 to start the meet) and has the figs to win….#1 Shallow River could surprise at decent odds but will need to take a step forward….Jockey D Cabrera is on the ALL MEGALOCKS jockey team and cannot be overlooked when aboard any horse with talent and early speed…..Horse is 5/5 ITM career…….#5 Love and Lemons mildly interesting but hasn’t won since 2018…..#3 Quiet Spring could be tough to catch if allowed to jump out to a quick and unchallenged lead.
UPDATE: Finished 1-6-3 Yes, guy.
1 9.40 4.50 3.20 6 3.50 2.70 3 4.60
Ex = $28 Tri = $150
Race 2
Most likely winner – #7 Two the Punch
Value pick – #5 Game Day Decision
Potential to hit the ticket at a big price – #4 Blended Lute; #3 Burtnjoe
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs INSIDER says……#7 Two the Punch has excellent trainer J Silva Jr (40% wins!) in his corner but this is Silva’s first starter at WRD…..Jockey R Eikleberry off to good start…..Gets good draw for this distance…..16/29 races at this distance in 2020 have been won by horses leaving from posts 6-9……#7 doesn’t lay over the field and that makes this race a tough call….#2 Strong Side and #5 Game Day Decision each have big shots….#3 Burtnjoe could take them a long way on the lead…..#4 Blended Lute got on our Watch List last start and is in fine form but will need to move forward….#6 Kwik finished well last start but may have too much ground to make up….This race starts the Pick 5!
UPDATE: Finished 4-2-7
BOMBS AWAY 21-1 winner
4 44.60 19.40 9.60 2 5.00 3.00 7 2.40
Ex = $197 Tri = $614 DD = $304
Race 3
Most likely winner – #2 Race the Moon
Value pick – #7 Maverick Brown
Potential to hit the ticket at a big price – #4 Viscosity
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs INSIDER says……#2 Race the Moon coming off a good effort and 2nd start off layoff….#7 Maverick Brown has a fine J/T combo (6/19 run at WRD) and trainer D Trett is on 6/20 run at WRD at this distance…..#4 Viscosity folded last race but could take them a long way if allowed to grab the lead (but has lots of 2nds and 3rds)…..#1 Affirmatif Song is a danger from the rail but note that horses at this distance at WRD are 0/21 last 365 days from post 1.
UPDATE: Finished 7-2-4 Haaaaaa.
7 4.80 2.60 2.20 2 2.40 2.10 4 4.00
Ex = $10 Tri = $44
Race 4
Most likely winner – #3 Bling Springsteen
Value pick – #10 Long Ride Home
Potential to hit the ticket at a big price – #8 Restore Harmony
UPDATE: Finished 10-9-5…..Good Value Play hit at 4-1.
10 10.40 6.40 5.00 9 36.00 18.00 5 8.80
Ex = $124 Tri = $3342 (Congrats to those that hit that bad boy!)
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs INSIDER says…….Wide open race and very nice component of the Pick 4 and Pick 5…..#3 Bling Springsteen made our Watch List last race but would not take him at short odds….#10 boasts excellent trainer S Young (26% this meet but only one win since March 25) and jockey F Wethey Jr (22%)…..Moves up off MCL win but last race was very impressive…..#8 Restore Harmony can fly early and may be a SURPRISE PACKAGE..Don’t sleep on the sneaky jockey change on #4 Flat Out Phat (L Goncalves is 11/19 top 2 at the meet) and her running style appeals to us very much.
Race 5
Most likely winner – #6 Sheza Rockstar
Value pick – None
Potential to hit the ticket at a big price – #4 Slidan (3rd, 4th at yuuuuge odds)
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs INSIDER says…..Chalky race might be a good spot for a single (or two horses) in multi-leg wagers…..#6 Sheza Rockstar has solid connections and good figs but is 0/6….#3 Hoyam is the other logical horse on paper coming out off a tougher race at OP…..Hard to pick a value horse but maybe #4 Slidan can spice up the tri and super tickets with a late run to hit the bottom as we liked the finish in his last start….Extra distance might help.
UPDATE: Finished 3-6-2 …..As suspected 1-2 finish of best two horses.
3 5.00 3.40 2.60 6 3.40 2.80 5 3.40
Ex = $15 Tri = $47
Race 6
Most likely winner – #1 Angel’s Cut
Value pick – #7 Given Kisses
Potential to hit the ticket at a big price – #8 Eco Star
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs INSIDER says…..Really tough race to call would definitely want a lot of coverage if playing this race…..#1 Angel’s Cut is coming off a win and has a fine jockey in the saddle…..#5 Veronica’s Dream is appealing but has been off since August 2019…..#7 Given Kisses is coming off a victory at HOU and is a fine selection at odds of 3-1 or higher…..#8 Eco Star could be a problem if she gets an early lead but note that there have not been any shippers from FP that have won this meet when coming from FP (0/8).
UPDATE: Finished 5-1-7 …..Chalky result
5 5.00 2.60 2.20 1 2.80 2.20 7 2.40
Ex = $13 Tri = $30
Race 7
Most likely winner – #1 Karate Hottie
Value pick – #3 Aura
Potential to hit the ticket at a big price – No opinion
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs INSIDER says…..#1 Karate Hottie is our best bet of the day but note that the odds will be very short maybe you can single in the Win 4?…..#3 Aura has excellent connections and trainer S Asmussen is 2/4 so far at the meet……Hard to identify any bombs to hit the bottom of the ticket and will avoid vertical wagers in Race 7.
UPDATE: Finished 1-2-5 …..BEST BET winner
1 3.40 2.50 2.20 2 4.80 3.60 5 13.80
Ex = $14 Tri = $216
Race 8
Most likely winner – #9 Battle Chic
Value pick – #8 Leighton Kentucky
Potential to hit the ticket at a big price – #3 My Holiday
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs INSIDER says…..#9 Battle Chic is going to be a hot handful based on past figs but note she is 0/7 at this distance….#8 Leighton Kentucky got on our Watch List in her last start and is a legit SURPRISE PACKAGE….#3 My Holiday has been off since October but has been working well and has a good WPS boxscore (limited sample) at this track and at this distance.
UPDATE: Finished 7-9-8 ……Close call, top two picks 2nd, 3rd
7 9.50 5.20 3.50 9 4.90 3.40 8 5.00
Ex = $44 Tri = $229
Race 9
Most likely winner – #3 Wholehearted
Value pick – None.
Potential to hit the ticket at a big price – #7 Spring Steen
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs INSIDER says….#3 Wholehearted and #2 Estilo Femenino both look like legit contenders and this might be a good race to key for the Win 4 (2,3)…..#7 Spring Steen has been off for a while but sports a deadly 5F workout.
UPDATE: Finished 3-10-5 …..Not a bad price for the winner
3 6.50 4.10 3.30 10 7.90 5.70 5 9.10
Ex = $80 Tri = $655
Race 10
Most likely winner – #11 Savvy Spender
Value pick – #5 Los Suenos
Potential to hit the ticket at a big price – #4 Red Red Wine
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs INSIDER says…..#11 Savvy Spender looks great on paper but note that she crapped the bed at .10 cents on the dollar last start and is 0/9…..Feels like a false favorite….#5 Los Suenos is coming off a good effort and could easily upset the apple cart at decent odds….#4 Red Red Wine is a first time starter but this is a soft field and the workout tab is sneaky good.
UPDATE: Finished 4-11-2 …..BOOOOOM 12-1 BOMB
4 27.30 8.50 5.50 11 2.50 2.20 2 3.80
Ex = $69 Tri = $358
Good day. See ya tomorrow!