Hope everyone is hanging in there and all is well with family and friends. For those who wish to partake in a little sweet thoroughbred racing action we have assembled some thoughts for the Will Rogers Downs card for today! The field sizes are good. The racing is underrated. Expect some wacky results. Track announcer John Lies does a great job.
Best of luck if you take a stab or two!
Race 1
Most likely winner – #4 Alex’s Bourbon
Value pick – #3 Tapindeed
Potential bomb to hit the ticket at a big price – #8 Imthebossrightnow
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs INSIDER says……#4 Alex’s Bourbon comes in off an “A” effort according to our RACE REPLAY WATCHING INSIDERS and is the horse to beat in this race….#3 Tapindeed got a place on our Watch List off her last race, loves the distance (4/12), loves to win (4/36) and could have more staying power in her 2nd start off a layoff…..#8 Imthebossrightnow also posted an “A” race last time out….She could bag a decent stalking trip from the outside and is 2/5 at WRD and 2/4 at the distance.
UPDATE. Congrats MEGALOCKS STONE COLD TRIFECTA MEMBERS.
Finished 4-8-3 (ham sandwich payoffs but still….)
4.20 2.80 2.10
4.80 2.60
2.10
Ex = $19
Tri = $42
Race 2
Most likely winner – #10 Casino Queen
Value pick – #7 Acertive Miss
Potential bomb to hit the ticket at a big price – #3 Okie Logic
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs INSIDER says……WHOA NELLIE…..Tough race to get a handle upon….12 horses entered and six first time starters…..#10 Casino Queen has proven early speed and excellent jockey F Wethey Jr in the saddle…..It’s her second start off a long layoff…..Wouldn’t take too short of a price……#11 Grey Zone has good figs but note the move from turf to dirt and slow breaking racing style…..Might be problematic…..#7 Acertive Miss has good breeding and a decent work tab and might be a SURPRISE PACKAGE…..#3 Okie Logic makes her 2nd career start and has a license to improve….She was bet down to 4-1 in her first start and trainer M Biehler has had a lot of success with horses in similar circumstances.
UPDATE. Congrats MEGALOCKS WIN THE GDP OF ICELAND CLUB members
Finished 10-3-1-7
10.10 4.80 3.60
6.20 4.30
5.00
Ex = $79
Tri = $388
$1 SUPER = $888
Race 3
Most likely winner – #1 Indian Cross
Value pick – #2 Survey
Potential bomb to hit the ticket at a big price – #6 Cruisin Comet
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs INSIDER says……#1 Indian Cross boasts impeccable connections (Luzzi, Asmussen) and comes into this race off a comfortable win at THE BIG S (Sam Houston)….#2 Survey also has some fine folks behind him (Kennedy, Diodoro) and should be able to control the race from the rail….#6 Cruisin Comet lost all chance at the start in his last effort from an outside post and is capable of spicing up the vertical wagers with a top-3 or top-4 finish…..#9 De Bird Is Da Word is a legit threat with trainer K Broberg (two wins yesterday) and ALL MEGALOCKS JOCKEY TEAM member D Cabrera on board…..It must be noted that horses breaking from the outside post at this distance at this meet are 1/25 and horses leaving from posts 7 or higher are a combined 1/36…..#4 Teryn It Up is a mystery as his figs look good but all 18 of his lifetime races have been on the turf.
UPDATE. 1st/2nd winning combo but another ham sandwich cashout.
Finished 2-1-4
4.30 2.80 2.30
3.60 2.90
3.60
Ex = $13
Tri = $66
Race 4
Most likely winner – #8 Meissen
Value pick – #5 Chiron Eclipse
Potential bomb to hit the ticket at a big price – #7 D’cinnamon Girl
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs INSIDER says……#8 Meissen takes a drop in class and trainer C Padilla is off to a good start in 2020 (5/17)…..Not crazy about the running style displayed in her first two starts but horses can often switch styles when they are young and particularly when they are facing weaker competition…..#5 Chiron Eclipse is a decent looking first time starter with solid connections (Wethey Jr, Pruitt)….Work tab is nothing special but first-time out pedigree is slightly above average…..#7 D’cinnamon Girl was bet down to 9-2 in her first start and now takes what is often referred to as the “ultimate class drop in racing” (MSW to MCL)…..Trainer J Offolter shows fine numbers in terms of success with 2nd time starters…..#2 Roses for Doug is a legit player but we will try and beat her <crosses fingers> given that she is 0/10 lifetime.
UPDATE. Three horses noted come 2-3-4. Trainer A Gladd bags second winner with #4 Sunday’s Vision. Pick 5 barely breathing <consults priest>.
Finished 4-8-7-5
15.80 6.80 4.40
3.20 2.40
3.40
Race 5
Most likely winner – #3 Nautia
Value picks – #1 Ancona, (#2 Tickle Bunny – update LATE SCRATCH will not go)
Potential bomb to hit the ticket at a big price – #9 Bella Kristina
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs INSIDER says……#3 Nautia has the deadly Asmussen/Luzzi combo in her corner and should appreciate the drop in class…Note that she is just 2/30 lifetime and Oaklawn shippers have been average so far this meet (8/38….-39% ROI win, 28% ROI place, -1% ROI show)…..#7 Bode On Tap gets our man Cabrera in the irons but moves from turf to dirt (?)….#1 Ancona moves up a level off a fine win and has great connections as well….#2 Tickle Bunny made our watch list last start and could spice things up with a big rush late……#9 Bella Kristina will likely need a start but is worth considering for 3rd or 4th in the exotics….Good work tab and 4/6 in top two at this distance.
UPDATE. Finished 1-7-3-9. Nothing epic. Keep that bankroll churning buh-buh. Pick 5 on respirator with one leg left. <calls good friend DR HEDGE to strategize>
5.80 3.00 2.20
2.80 2.20
2.10
Race 6
Most likely winner – #4 Texas Long Bow
Value pick – None
Potential bomb to hit the ticket at a big price – None
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs INSIDER says……The top three or four horses are tough to separate but we will RIDE OR DIE with #4 Texas Long Bow who makes his first start for WHITE HOT trainer R Diodoro (32% wins at meet)…..#2 Nomo Ron also races out of the aforementioned barn but is 0/3 at the distance…..#5 Texas Munny Man moves from turf to dirt (?)….#7 Libertarian has the figs to win this bad boy and is 3/4 in the money at this distance…oh and there’s #8 Lindante who comes in off a win at 1M and features the Cabrera/Broberg combo…..TOUGH race to call.
UPDATE. Finished 2-7-6-8. Picked the wrong Diodoro horse. ARGH. Pick 5 dies in a ball of flames. 50 cent Pick 4 not enough to stop the bleeding on that wager. On to race 7!
6.50 3.30 2.60
3.40 2.80
4.20
Race 7
Most likely winner – #6 Ed’s Rocket
Value pick – #4 Big Em C (update – SCRATCHED – will not race)
Potential bomb to hit the ticket at a big price – #1 Union Rebel
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs INSIDER says……LOTS of speed signed on in here and we’ll side with the perceived SPEED OF THE SPEED #6 Ed’s Rocket….He NEEDS the lead and should get it but lots of horses will be gunning so we wouldn’t take a short price……It might be wise to look at some horses that can sit behind the speed (even at this distance) and #4 Big Em C loves this distance (9/18 !) and has D Cabrera at the controls….#5 Niigon’s Glory also has a fine finishing kick but may have a bit too far to come in the lane….#1 Union Rebel comes off an “A” race and a win but will need to take a step forward to win this race….Not impossible but likely to hit 3rd or 4th vs a win….#2 Trapalanda will take a lot of money but he has already moved forward significantly in two consecutive starts and has to deal with Ed’s Rocket.
UPDATE. Finished 2-5-6
#2 was better than #6. Logical closer (#5 after scratch of #4) got up for 2nd.
6.20 4.00 2.60
8.00 3.20
2.20
Race 8
Most likely winner – #5 Silver Luke Silver (Best Bet)
Value pick – #7 My Macho Man
Potential bomb to hit the ticket at a big price – #1 Fred’s Country Boy, #4 John Allen (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs INSIDER says……#5 Silver Luke Silver got added to our Watch List off his last effort and now gets a drop in class and has a good post to work with….Not much early speed in this race so he should be able to avoid too much trouble…..#7 My Macho Mon has a dicey racing style (deep closer) but managed to win comfortably last start despite having trouble at the start….#1 Fred’s Country Boy is 8-1ML and could be a SURPRISE PACKAGE from the rail as he will likely be sent early and sports an excellent 5F workout…..#4 John Allen is just 2/31 lifetime but could stagger home in the top four as we feel he will be in the top half of the field coming home at double digit odds….We love some David Cabrera action but #2 Chroniqueur is another horse that will need to come from far back.
UPDATE. Finished 1-5-4. 22% of the field was scratched and depressed the payoffs.
5.40 2.60 2.20
2.20 2.10
3.20
Ex = $12
Tri = $36
Race 9
Most likely winner – #4 Shannon C
Value pick – #6 My Wise Cat
Potential bomb to hit the ticket at a big price – #3 Dame Plata (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs INSIDER says……Lots of speed signed up for the feature race!….Very tough race to call….#4 Shannon C has the best dirt pace and first fraction times in this field by far BUT note that he has been off almost an entire year…..Love the connections but that is definitely a concern….#8 Bay Muzik needs to lead to win but shows great figs….Not crazy about leaving from post 8 with so much speed signed on and it will be tough for him to gain control….Also moving from turf to dirt….Definite threat….#1 Direct Dial has a shot but horses leaving from post 1 at this distance at WRD are 0-21 L365D……#6 Wise Cat has done nothing wrong in three starts for Diodoro and should be a square price….#3 Dame Plata could spice up the vertical wagers given his closing kick…..#7 Just Blaze can fly home but may be too far back.
UPDATE. Congrats MEGALOCKS WILL ROGERS DOWNS STAKES RACE EXACTA CLUB members. #4 almost went coast to coast at 6-1 (!) and was nipped late by the “value” pick #6 who was really bet late by the mobsters.
Finished 6-4-1
5.20 3.00 2.20
5.40 3.60
2.80.
Ex = $27
Race 10
Most likely winner – #4 Eurobadguy
Value pick – #9 Trebulski
Potential bomb to hit the ticket at a big price – #5 Kris Me Deadly
MEGALOCKS Will Rogers Downs INSIDER says……#4 Eurobadguy should offer decent odds (not the fav), get a drop in class, has good figs, and a sneaky jockey change is in play (Ramos/Heltzer are 2/3 at WRD L365D)…..#3 Wil of Fortune will be in the mix early but could not bring down a BOMB last race when bet down to 1/5….#9 Trebulski moves to the excellent S Young barn but will need to improve…..#5 Kris Me Deadly moves up in class off a win but could take them a long way on the front if allowed to control the tempo.
UPDATE. Fav gets it done. #4 gave it a good go. #5 spices things up a bit!
5.20 3.10 2.60
3.90 3.10
8.50
Ex=$18
Tri = $156
See ya Thursday!