College Football Predictions – Houston Cougars 2020 College Football Preview
August 23, 2020
2019 Recap
Record – 4-8
ATS – 6-6
You can call it a disaster, you can call it the HOUSTON TANK, whatever you wanna call it, there’s no doubt that it wasn’t pretty. They battled injuries and defections all season and struggled to their first losing season since 2012 (!). To be fair, that was a long run of success.
HC Dana Holgorsen did good work at West Virginia and knows he has a good long-term situation in Houston. The recruiting ground is fertile and dividends could start to pay off this year with a solid roster. Let’s go!
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
American Athletic Conference – #7
<Note. No divisions this year. One 11-team conference.>
Houston Cougars 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The COOGS weren’t their usual selves on offense LY but there were so many injuries, departures, and distractions that it’s not worth talking about. The good news looking ahead to this season is that they return 9 starters and should be very potent. QB Clayton Tune has proven he can do the job (19 TD passes in two years of limited work) and note that he rushed for 50+ yards in 4/7 games LY. They look loaded at WR and return their top four WRs including Marquez Stevenson (52-907, 17.4, 9 TD) and #1 TE Christian Trahan is also back in the mix. The ground game should also work well as RBs Kyle Porter and Mulbah Car combined for 991 yards and 6 TDs LY. The offensive line returns three starters but they’ll need to clean up their act BIG TIME as they were dead last in the AAC in TFL/game allowed in 2019. They also yielded 35 sacks (#T9 AAC).
We project a significant uptick in production this year (30.7 PPG LY, #6 AAC)
DEFENSE
Houston was horrid on defense for the second consecutive season as they allowed 34 PPG (#113 FBS) and 467 YPG (#118 FBS) just a year removed from a similarly poor showing (37.2, 496). Things should improve this year as they return seven starters, but more importantly, get a BOATLOAD of transfers to help the cause. The vast majority of those transfers will be additions to a secondary that was abused a season ago (29-8 TD to INT, #124 pass D) and the LB group returns their leading tackler in senior Grant Stuard and #3 tackler Donovan Mutin. There’s less certainty with a defensive line that boasts several upperclassmen but a lack of impact talent.
There will be improvement made, but we still project these guys to have one of the weaker defenses in the AAC. It’s possible they could exceed expectations given that all 11 starters might be juniors or seniors. Time will tell.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things look solid. PK Dalton Witherspoon nailed 20/24 FG attempts LY and was a HANDY 40/40 on XPs. They lose ace P Dane Roy but will try and backfill with AUSSIE Laine Wilkins. The return game looks promising as they are CHOCK FULL of athletes, and recall that Marquez Stevenson averaged 28 yards per KR LY (#12 FBS).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – 11 games are booked. Two of their non-conference affairs are definitely on the winnable side (North Texas, Rice) but the date with BYU in Provo will be a tough game. The first half of their conference schedule is much more difficult than the back-end. The Cougars draw all the nasty AAC teams (Memphis, UCF, Cincinnati) so that’s not ideal.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Navy (October 24th)
They’ll be facing the MIDDIES on the road a week after getting physically beat up (win or lose) at BYU.
Season Win Total
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGALOCKS says:
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Dana Holgorsen has served under some fine head coaches including Mike Leach, Kevin Sumlin, and Mike Gundy.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
Consider last season a “trial run”. It was such an unusual campaign with a lot of change and turmoil. The offense is going to SCORE THE FOOTBALL and it’ll be up to the defense to be good enough to make a few key stops. It gets REAL in a hurry as Houston travels to Memphis on September 19th with a chance to SHOCK the WORLD and get a leg up on the defending champs. SLEEPER ALERT.
#GoCoogs !
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NEWS
https://www.chron.com/sports/cougars/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/248/houston-cougars
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