Houston Cougars 2024 College Football Preview
Posted July 4, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 4-8
ATS – 5-6-1
It was a rough transition into the Big 12 for the Cougars and they stumbled to the finish line winning just one of their final six games. The 2023 season wasn’t a complete disaster as they managed to beat the JUGGERNAUTS from UTSA, Baylor on the road, and West Virginia on a Hail Mary (16th straight completion for Houston QB Donovan Smith) in what was one of the craziest fourth quarters of the entire season **.
Houston made one of the best coaching hires of the offseason when they snagged Willie Fritz from Tulane. Let’s check in with the program and see what Fritz has to work with in his first year with the Cougars.
** Fact check: True. Youtube that BAD BOY.
Houston Cougars 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Cougars were marred last season by inconsistent QB play (24-13 TD to INT) and an anemic rushing attack (119 YPG, #104). Houston heads into this campaign with a good situation at QB with the return of veteran (albeit, inconsistent) Donovan Smith and the addition of exciting dual-threat specimen Zeon Chriss from Louisiana (11-5 TD to INT; 492 rush, 6 TD). Houston brings back their top-three RBs which is a good thing but we doubt there’s a legit workhorse in the room. Things look sketchy at WR/TE as Houston will be relying on several transfers to make an impact, but at least they bring back big-body WR Joseph MANJACK (577, 6 TD) who can make defenses pay. The offensive line will almost certainly be a problem area as they’re rebuilding with transfers and recall that they lost star LT Patrick Paul who was taken in the 2nd round of the NFL draft. There are well over 100 career starts in the room but they’ll need the several pieces acquired thru the transfer portal to hit the ground running.
DEFENSE
Houston struggled as anticipated on defense LY (#10 Big 12 rush D, #13 pass efficiency D) and there will be a lot of new faces on defense this season as the Cougars return just three of their top-14 tacklers (!). The overarching theme on defense is TRANSFERS and that makes it very difficult to predict how things will unfold. There are a few returning pieces worth noting including DT Anthony Holmes, LB Jamal Morris, and safety AJ Haulcy (#1 tackles), but the Cougars are banking on the emergence of several of the new additions. Stay tuned!
SPECIAL TEAMS
RUH ROH.
Houston has to replace the majority of their key contributors including Matthew Golden who returned a PAIR (!) of KRs to the HIZZY CRIBBY in 2023. PK Jack Martin is back for duty but he was a miserable 8/14 on FG attempts LY.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – YIKES. There isn’t a single gimme in non-conference action and they get the privilege of being slaughtered at Oklahoma in week two. Houston faces all three Big 12 BIG ‘UNS (Kansas St, Utah, Iowa St) but at least all three of those games are at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Rice (Sept 14)
Little brother vs big brother and the BATTLE OF HOUSTON, yo. This game means more to the Owls and the Cougars have Big 12 play on deck.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 4
Over 4 -130
Under 4 +110
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Under
We prefer ‘under 4.5’ at high juice but this season win total has been steamed down to 3.5/4. In fact, we haven’t seen this much steam since the opening scene of POSITION IMPOSSIBLE. It’s really hard to find five wins on the docket but we have to respect HC Willie Fritz and who knows how all these transfer pieces will integrate? Lean to the under but not sure it will make our dance card.
NOTE – “Lean” implies this is how we’d invest in this market if forced to make a choice. We’ll notify subscribers in our Season Win Total blog post of any season win totals that have made our investment card.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Houston is just 18-27-1 ATS as home chalk (40%) over the L10Y.
New HC Willie Fritz is a completely impossible 74-50-1 ATS (60%) over his career with Georgia Southern and Tulane.
Right now, it’s 108 degrees with 140% humidity in Houston. Avoid the foot-long cockroaches.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
This is definitely a rebuilding year for the Cougars but they’ve got some things going for them. Ace head coach. Talented QB room. And who knows how many major contributors they scooped up in the transfer portal? Sadly, the schedule is daunting so we’ll call for three or four wins, and maybe a fifth win if they can pull a major upset or two. Go COOGS!