Idaho Potato Bowl – BYU vs Western Michigan
The Game
Bring on the SMURF TURF, baby.
The BYU Cougars return to bowl season after a one-year hiatus to take on Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. BYU sits at 6-6 for the season and boast a couple of nice road wins over Arizona and Wisconsin. They also took Boise down to the wire on this field. The Broncos finished up the regular season with a record of 7-5 but struggled down the stretch losing three of their final four games.
The Details
BYU -12 Western Michigan (48.5)
Note – Total has moved to 50 subsequent to posting this on the site Dec 8th.
MEGALOCKS LINE – BYU -11
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: BYU 30.25 Western Michigan 18.25
The Match-Up:
BYU offense vs Western Michigan defense
It wasn’t pretty, but the Cougars were able to score on the weak defenses on the schedule, and they get to face another soft unit in this game. Freshman QB Zach Wilson provided a spark to the offense around the mid-season mark (62%, 8-3 TD to INT) and almost engineered an upset of hated rival Utah (204 passing yards, 73 rushing). The RB unit has been nuked by injuries this season but should have Squally Canada back for this game (118 yards vs Wisconsin) and possibly Lopini Katoa (leading rusher, 8 TD). RB Matt Hadley is done for the year. They do just enough in the passing game and TE Matt Bushman had another fine campaign (18.4 YPC, 9 catches last two games). The Broncos defense struggled this year and rank #72 vs the run and #109 in pass efficiency defense. They allowed 50+ points on three occasions. The good news is that the BYU offense is nowhere near as potent as some of the offenses that lit them up. The Cougars are pretty methodical but should be able to get into the 30s.
Western Michigan offense vs BYU defense
True freshman QB Kaleb Eleby was given a tough assignment in replacing injured starting QB Jon Wassink. Eleby had some ups and downs but finished up with decent passing stats (65%, 4-2 TD to INT). Wassink provided a lot more mobility at the QB position and Eleby has limited ability to escape pressure or move the chains with his legs. The running game is also hampered because the D does not need to respect the ability of the QB run. Having said that, the Broncos have an excellent 1-2 punch at RB in LaVante Bellamy and Jamauri Bogan who combined for over 1,800 yards rushing and 15 TDs. They also boast a pair of 700-yard receivers that will definitely test the BYU secondary. BYU is ranked #21 in yards per play defense and managed to hold some pretty good offenses in check this season. The Broncos are capable of moving the ball on BYU but they will need to be sharp. The run game has to work. Bad weather will not help their cause.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
MAC teams are 19-24-1 ATS (44%) this decade in bowl games……The Broncos played in this bowl game in 2014 and lost by 14 to YOUR Air Force Falcons……Could we see BYU go STEALTH and wear their all-blue uniforms on the SMURF TURF? <grabs popcorn>
Summary
Betting double-digit favorites in bowl games is not a great way to build a fortune. The good news for BYU is that they get a relatively weak opponent from a conference that was down this year in our estimation. Double-digit MAC underdogs covered just one of three games the past two seasons. This has the feeling of a home game for BYU playing in Mountain West country and they will surely be motivated to bag that 7th win and avoid a losing season.
Conclusion
Official play: None yet.
Side: Lean to BYU.
Total: Slight lean to the over. (up to 50.5)
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.