Illinois Fighting Illini 2016 NCAA Football Preview
ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
Big 10 Conference – West Division
2015 Record – 5-7
ATS – 5-7
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
West Division #6
Conference – #11
2015 Recap
The season started out in fine fashion as Illinois won four of their first give games. Unfortunately the only win the rest of the season was a blowout victory at Purdue. They came close to making a bowl game which would have been a decent accomplishment. The Illini played some good Big 10 teams pretty tough but could not pull any upsets other than a late one-point win vs Nebraska.
OFFENSE
Senior QB Wes Lunt comes back to lead the offense and he did a decent job last season. It is very strange to see someone attempt 481 passes (!) and only throw 14 TD passes and 6 INT. Lunt proved he can be smart with the football but he will need to MATRICULATE more effectively down the field this season in order to make more big plays. Lunt will be without 2015 leading receiver Geronimo Allison and an injured Mike Dudek. They do return their #2 and #3 receivers from last season and Lunt should be able to put up decent numbers distributing the football to the WR corps.
Illinois has to do a better job running the football. Last season they were ranked LAST in the Big 10 in rushing yards per game, and in fact, the last time that they averaged over 140 yards per game was back in 2011. What happened that year ? They won 7 games and beat UCLA in a bowl game. They do return their leading rusher from 2015 Ke’Shawn Vaughn but the offensive line has got to do a better job of blocking. They were decent in pass protection (20 sacks allowed in almost 500 attempts). If they can’t find a way to get some production running the football it will be a struggle to make a bowl game.
DEFENSE
The defense was pretty solid last season. They were ranked 30th in the FBS in total defense and were particularly stingy in the secondary while picking off 13 passes. The front 7 appears to be in good shape this season. DL Dawuane Smoot had 8 sacks in 2015, and the LB core gets the addition of California transfer Hardy Nickerson to play MLB, and all he did was lead the Golden Bears in tackles last season. Even with three new starters in the secondary the defense looks to be the strength of the team. Their pass rush has been pretty bad the past four seasons averaging less than 20 sacks per campaign and that needs to improve.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This unit was pretty disappointing last season across the board. They really did not do much of anything well and now need to find a new PK to replace Taylor Zalewski who was the only “bright spot” in 2015.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
This season should be interesting. They have a good QB, a solid defense and a much improved coaching staff. The schedule is a lot more difficult than people realize, and they better win some games early on, because they finish up with Michigan St, Wisconsin. Iowa and Northwestern.
Overall, we give the FIGHTING ILLINI a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season. There is potential for this team to cover a bunch of games but we worry about their ability to run the football. We also worry about their less experienced secondary being able to stop good passing teams like UNC, Western Michigan and even a couple of squads in the Big 10. We will be probably sitting out most of their early games until it is more clear what kind of team they have in 2016.
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Website
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Forum
http://www.scout.com/college/illinois/forums/2617-galloping-ghost-football-fan-forum
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News
http://www.thechampaignroom.com/
http://bleacherreport.com/illinois-fighting-illini-football
http://www.news-gazette.com/sports/illini-sports
https://twitter.com/IlliniFootball @IlliniFootball
https://twitter.com/BobAsmussen @BobAsmussen Bob Asmussen