College Football Predictions – Illinois Fighting Illini 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 4-8
ATS – 5-7
Illinois managed to double their win total from the previous season but still finished up with a mediocre record of 4-8. Their victories did not exactly come vs a WHO’S WHO of college football (Kent St, Western Illinois, Rutgers, Minnesota) and HC Lovie Smith now has a record of 9-27 in Champaign. The Fighting Illini have not posted a winning record since 2011 (7-6).
Are better times to come this year? Pull up a chair and take a read!
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #7
Big 10 – #12
Illinois Fighting Illini 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
It’s been an absolute treat watching the QB play at Illinois over the past three years. YUCK. We are happy to say that there is finally reason for excitement at QB as highly-regarded recruit Isaiah Williams is a virtual cinch to take over the starting gig as a true freshman. You don’t want to put too much pressure on the kid, but if there’s one thing we have learned over the past decade or so, talented QBs are more than capable of doing great work in their first season. Williams will have a really good running game to rely upon. Did you know that Illinois ranked #12 in the FBS in rushing a season ago and were 2nd to Wisconsin (!) in the Big Ten? Amaze your PAROLE OFFICER with that trivia nugget. The ground attack should be just fine this year as they bring back their 1,000-yard RB Reggie Corbin (1,085, 9 TD) who averaged an amazing 8.5 yards per carry in 2018. They also have proven depth at the position. The OL looks good and they return 4/5 starters to a unit that paved the way for 243 YPG on the ground whilst allowing a respectable 27 sacks. It’s unclear if they have a true #1 option at WR but they do return a lot of experience and add transfer Trevon Sidney from USC. (UPDATE – June 21: Former Michigan QB Brandon Peters transferred to Illinois and is the favorite to win the starting QB job)
Illinois tallied 26.0 PPG last season and we project they will improve and have their best output since 2013 (29.7).
DEFENSE
It’s still unclear what we were watching last season but it sure didn’t look like “defense”. Illinois gave up almost 40 PPG, whilst allowing 245 YPG on the ground (worst in the Big Ten), 263 YPG through the air (2nd worst Big Ten), and yielding 60+ points on three different occasions. CONGRATS “over” backers. What can we expect this year?
The Fighting Illini return 10 starters to the stop unit and as we have noted in other team previews, we tend to like the upside that a lot of experience brings to the table, even if they performed poorly during the prior season. Lovie Smith will be running the show this year and if the defense is EVER going to show improvement this HAS to be the year. AMIRITE? The DL returns almost everyone but will be without one of their best players Bobby Roundtree who led the team in sacks and TFL last season. Roundtree suffered a serious spinal injury in a swimming accident and we hope he makes a full recovery. The LB and DB units return essentially intact but will be without leading tackler LB DelShawn Phillips.
Serious improvement needs to be made. We are cautiously optimistic that they will make positive strides but they still appear to be the weakest defense in the conference. Rutgers may end up saying HOLD MY BEER. Stay tuned.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Losing their fine PK Chase McLaughlin is a tough pill to swallow (20/25 FG, 36/36 XP LY) and it will be interesting to see if promising freshman Caleb Griffin can have a good first season with the team. The punting and return units need to get better.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The first five games are not scary at all. Akron. At Connecticut. Eastern Michigan. Nebraska. At Minnesota. If they can’t find three wins in there it seems highly unlikely they will be able to get to a bowl game.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Eastern Michigan (September 14)
Illinois should be able to bag a SU win but keep in mind that they are just 13-21 ATS (38%) as home chalk over the past ten seasons. Oh, and they have Big Ten play on deck (Huskers).
Season Win Total
Over 4.5 +115
Under 4.5 -135
MEGALOCKS says:
There’s no excuse to fail to win three games. Enough already. Getting to five wins? Might be a stretch. No SWEET ACTION on this market.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Illinois has claimed three Big Ten titles since 1963, the latest coming in 2001 when HC Ron Turner and QB Kurt Kittner led the team to a record of 10-2 (7-1 conference play).
The Fighting Illini have a post-season record of 5-10 since their Rose Bowl win over Washington in 1963.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
Please. Enough is enough. Illinois football fans deserve better.
We don’t mind giving guys some time BUT this is now year FOUR of the LOVIE SMITH EXPERIENCE and it’s time to see some results. The roster is experienced and they now feature a flashy new QB who could be a really good one. The schedule is not a beast and the talent is there to make progress and a bowl appearance. It’s just hard to bank on these guys when they have been a perpetual doormat.
Illinois is 52-70 ATS (42.6%) over the past 10 seasons, and that is pretty awful considering that they are often catching a ton of points and the point spread is almost always shaded in their favor. Who is lining up to bet this team? <crickets> We can see these guys surprising some folks but can’t give them a full endorsement.
Want more Illinois football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.fightingillini.com/index.aspx?path=football
FORUM
http://www.illinoisloyalty.com/Forums/forumdisplay.php?f=4
https://247sports.com/college/illinois/Board/Football-Fan-Forum-103854/
http://www2.illiniboard.com/forum
NEWS
http://www.thechampaignroom.com/
http://www.news-gazette.com/sports/illini-sports/football
https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/356/illinois-fighting-illini
http://bleacherreport.com/illinois-fighting-illini-football
Hashtag – #Illini
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