Iowa Hawkeyes 2016 NCAA Football Preview

IOWA HAWKEYES

Big 10 Conference – West Division

2015 Record – 12-2

ATS – 8-6

2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank

West Division #1

Conference – #3

2015 Recap

Now that was a fine season. 12-0 to start the campaign and so close to taking the Big 10 Title. It took a gutsy late drive from Sparty to pull out a 16-13 win. Iowa had nothing left for the Rose Bowl (apparently) even though we thought they could be competitive. Oops. Yes, it is true that the schedule was not a murderers’ row, but it is NEVER easy to reel off 12 straight wins. They did it with a mix of efficient QB play, solid defense and winning the turnover battle (+11).

OFFENSE

Iowa was 3rd in the Big 10 in passing efficiency in 2015, which when combined with a solid running game, made them a tough offense to handle. 31 points a game without a ton of truly explosive weaponry. CJ Beathard returns for his senior season in 2016 and we love the way he protects the football (5 INT in 362 attempts last year) and does what it takes to move the chains.

The running game should be fine with a deep RB corps and solid offensive line. They also return leading receiver Matt VandeBerg and a TE that averaged over 14 yards a reception with 6 TDs (George Kittle). To be honest, this offense looks really similar to last season’s version.

DEFENSE

When you break the stats down from last season, the thing that stands out is that nothing stands out. They were just solid all around. They gave up 20 points per game. They were 4th in the Big 10 in run defense and 5th in passing efficiency defense. They had 30 sacks which was decent. Overall, the unit was not “lights out” but they got the job done.

We think the defense will be better statistically this season. They are a very experienced unit with no apparent weakness. The front seven looks solid and the secondary is going to be very difficult to throw on once again. They could use an improved pass rush but nobody with more than four sacks returns from last year’s squad.

JUGGERNAUT ALERT – CB/KR/PR Desmond King is an NFL-ready talent. He will almost assuredly go in the top 10 of next year’s draft. Sticking to the present day, he is a fantastic athlete and great CB who not only had 8 interceptions last season, but he also won the Jim Thorpe Award recognizing the top defensive back in college football. Oh, and he is also an excellent punt and kick returner. Wow.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Hawkeyes are set in the return game with Desmond King. We have concerns about the kicking game as they lose excellent PK Marshall Koehn and need to find a new punter.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Iowa did what they had to do last season. Full marks for that. But we cannot forget that in week two they were only a 3 point favorite vs Iowa St on the road. They slithered through the schedule in 2015 but will not be sneaking up on anyone this year. Thankfully, the schedule is very manageable once again and have four tune-up games (at least on paper) before they get their first test at home vs Northwestern.

Overall, we give the HAWKEYES a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season. They are very fundamentally sound and look to have a balanced offense and very good defense. However, it must be noted that they will be large favorites in many of their games until November rolls around. That will make it difficult to find value, but at the same time, you should be able to back them with confidence in their more competitive games because they are often overlooked in conference play.

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