College Football Predictions – Iowa St Cyclones 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 8-5
ATS – 9-3-1
What a ride!
We should have known after the entertaining game with Iowa in week 2 (lost in OT 44-41) that special things were on the horizon. Iowa St SHOCKED the WORLD by defeating the Sooners in Norman and took down TCU later in the campaign. The Cyclones posted a winning mark for only the second time in the past 10 years (2009 – 7-6) and put the cherry on the cake with a bowl win over a JUGGERNAUT Memphis squad.
What can they do for an encore?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 12 – #6
Iowa St Cyclones 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Iowa St had a QB carousel last year and still managed to bag eight wins. Kyle Kempt was fantastic completing 66% of his passes with a great 15-3 TD to INT ratio whilst leading the yuuuuge upset of Oklahoma. Kempt should be able to MATRICULATE effectively down the field given the return of WR Hakeem Butler (17.0 YPC, 7 TD LY), imposing TE Chase Allen (6’7) and receiving ability of RB David Montgomery (36 receptions). He will however have to operate without #1 Allen Lazard who graduated as the school’s all-time receiving yardage leader.
Speaking of Mr Montgomery he led the team with 1,146 yards rushing and 11 TDs in addition to his aforementioned receiving prowess. His ability to run with the white-hot intensity of 10,000 suns and break numerous tackles has made him a MEGALOCKS favorite. The Cyclones had a hard time getting the run game going last year (#9 Big 12 rushing offense) but were exceptional in pass protection (19 sacks allowed in 13 games). The line brings back three starters but will be without 2nd Team Big 12 LT Jake Campos.
DEFENSE
The Cyclones underwent an impressive transformation last year going from 453 YPG allowed (#8 Big 12) in 2017 to 366 last season (#3 Big 12). They allowed a comical 67% (!) of passes to be completed but were stout vs the run (128 YPG) while achieving decent PENETRATION (26 sacks; 19 in 2017). This year they will miss the production and heart of leading tackler LB Joel Lanning but do return a pair of starters at every level of the defense. LB Marcel Spears was a 2nd Team Big 12 performer last season as was CB Brian Peavy (9 PBU, 6 TFL).
This looks like one of the best units in the conference.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Cyclones need to break in a new PK and a new P. That can sometimes be problematic. They will also be without PR Trever Ryen who took one to the house last season.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s pretty nasty. In addition to the Big 12 slate (road dates with TCU, Oklahoma St, Texas) they take on Iowa away from home and open with a tough FCS team (South Dakota St).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Akron (September 22). The MOTHER of all sandwich games. It comes after games with Iowa and Oklahoma and before match-ups with TCU and Oklahoma St. It’s not to say they can’t blow the doors off Akron but just keep in mind the point-spread value will almost certainly lie with the wacky Zips.
Season Win Total
Over 6.5 -120
Under 6.5 -110
Lean to the over. The docket is a challenging one but the win total is set at a pretty reasonable number.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Iowa St has been known as the Cyclones since late in the 19th century when, according to a headline in the Chicago Tribune, Northwestern was “Struck by a Cyclone” (Iowa St 36 Northwestern 0). Amaze your PSYCHO EX-GIRLFRIEND with that nugget.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the CYCLONES a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
The Cyclones served notice to the rest of the Big 12 that their days of being a doormat are over for the moment. It will be interesting to see how they do when losing the element of surprise. The schedule is nasty and they move on without last season’s leading tackler and their all-time leading receiver. We will add that it is highly unlikely they go another season losing only one fumble.
All is not lost. HC Matt Campbell is a rising star and has an amazing 45-28-2 (61.6%) record vs the point spread during his time at Toledo and Iowa St. There are some headwinds to deal with so it is probably best to begin the season on the fence from an ATS perspective.
Want more Iowa St football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.cyclones.com/index.aspx?path=football
FORUM
Free
http://cyclonefanatic.com/forum/forums/football.9/
Restricted
https://iowastate.forums.rivals.com/forums/isu-confidential-2-0.8/
http://iowastate.247sports.com/Board/Iowa-State-Cyclones-Message-Board-Forum-101486
NEWS
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/sports/cyclone-insider
http://bleacherreport.com/iowa-state-football
http://www.widerightnattylite.com/
Hashtag – #WinInTheDark
Accounts to follow