College Football Predictions – Iowa St Cyclones 2020 College Football Preview
August 14, 2020
2019 Recap
Record – 7-6
ATS – 6-7
The Cyclones were a popular dark horse pick to find their way into the Big 12 Championship Game last year but lost a few REALLY close conference games along the way, and that did them in. Note to file. They lost to Baylor and Oklahoma, the best two teams in the Big 12, by a combined three (!) points, and both of those contests were on the road.
Matt Campbell has done a great job building this program. Can they take the next step in 2020?
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 12 – #4
Iowa St Cyclones 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Cyclones scored the most points in school history last year and finished the season ranked #2 in the Big 12 in passing offense (#11 FBS) and #5 in total offense (#27 FBS). They struggled in their final two games scoring a combined 26 points (Kansas St, Notre Dame) but they were definitely a team that could SCORE THE FOOTBALL on most occasions. Ace QB Brock Purdy is one of the best in the Big 12 and he completed 66% of his passes LY with a fine 27-9 TD to INT ratio. Purdy has good mobility as well as he was the team’s #2 rusher (249) and booked 8 TDs on the ground LY. RB Breece Hall was a real find at RB LY and he rattled off five games of 97+ rushing yards in just eight starts. Hall also snagged 23 receptions out of the backfield. #1 WR Deshaunte Jones graduated but WR Tarique Milton averaged over 20 YPC LY and TE Charlie Kolar is one of the best receiving tight ends in college football (697, 7 TD LY). The primary concern is an offensive line that returns just one starter, and note that the Cyclones have struggled the last three seasons on the ground (#9, #10, #9 Big 12 rushing offense L3Y). They did a great job protecting Purdy a season ago (fewest sacks per game allowed Big 12) so it will be interesting to see how the new guys hold up.
The offense is likely to be down a notch but there’s upside if the offensive line can come together in quick fashion.
DEFENSE
Iowa St slipped a bit LY from a scoring defense perspective (25.9 PPG vs 22.9, 20.9 previous two seasons) but still finished ranked #3 in Big 12 scoring D in a conference CHOCK FULL of potent offenses. This year they look like one of the more stingy defenses in the Big 12 even with the departure of leading tackler LB Marcel Spears and a pair of good DTs. Eight starters return to the stop unit overall and they look really strong at LB and in the secondary. Their back-seven is arguably the most talented in the Big 12 as they boast a lot of talented upperclassmen. DE Jaquan Bailey is the program’s co-leader in career sacks (18.5) and he’s back after playing in just three games last season due to injury. A couple of bones to pick are the lack of turnovers forced a season ago (6 INT, #113 FBS) and an average sack total (28, #T61 FBS).
This is clearly one of the best defenses in the Big 12 and we project a comfortable top-3 finish in total defense as was achieved in 2018 and 2017.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This appears to be one of the better special teams groups in the conference. They return a pair of experienced punters and PK Connor Assalley hit 15/19 FG attempts LY. The primary return men are also back in the mix (Milton, Nwangwu).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – WHOA, NELLIE. Their out-of-conference challenge is going to be a great game with the SPICY Ragin’ Cajuns coming to town. They have five home Big 12 games (including Oklahoma) but need to go ON THE HIGHWAY to face Oklahoma St and Texas. The first half of the schedule is much more difficult overall than the back-end.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Kansas (October 31st)
This is a SPOOKY Halloween affair on the road in Lawrence that’s sandwiched between a pair of tough games (at Oklahoma St, Baylor). They’ll be laying a big number in this one and note that Kansas jumps up and bites someone almost every year. Not saying, just saying.
Season Win Total
Over 6.5 -115
Under 6.5 -115
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the ‘over’ at that price. We thought the number would open at ‘7’.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Iowa St has booked three consecutive winning seasons. The last time they had a streak longer than that was from 1923 to 1927 when they cobbled together five straight winning years. Fun fact. EVERY one of those five campaigns ended with the exact same record (4-3-1). Amaze your DIMWITTED CUBICLE BUDDY at work with that trivia nugget.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
The Cyclones have a legit shot to finally get to the Big 12 Championship Game. It won’t be easy, but they have the QB, defense, special teams, and coaching to get it done. Hopefully they can win enough close games and still be in the conversation when they visit Austin on November 27th.
Want more Iowa St football ?
WEBSITE
https://cyclones.com/sports/football
FORUM
http://cyclonefanatic.com/forum/forums/football.9/
https://iowastate.forums.rivals.com/forums/isu-confidential-2-0.8/
http://iowastate.247sports.com/Board/Iowa-State-Cyclones-Message-Board-Forum-101486
NEWS
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/sports/cyclone-insider
http://www.widerightnattylite.com/
https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/66/iowa-state-cyclones
Hashtag – #cyclONEnation
Accounts to follow