MEGALOCKS BLOG – March 29, 2018
It’s Opening Day!
GETTING READY FOR MLB OPENING DAY!
Hey everyone. It seems impossible, but yes indeed, baseball is here! It’s a long and winding road, but we are sure it will not disappoint in terms of great performances, drama and big-time surprises. Today we have a quick recap of the season win totals posted earlier in the year on the MEGALOCKS INSIDER site, as well some quick thoughts to keep in mind as we head into opening day. We are going to defer any additional future wagers until we get a month or so of games out of the way. Very often you can still find good value into May and beyond. Let’s go!
Season win totals
Here is a quick peek at the season win totals we previously recommended.
Yankees +120 to win AL East – This was a good grab and we still love the look of this team. They are now a clear favorite (-135 at 5Dimes). Would we play it now at this price? Probably not. If they get off to a slow start you may be able to do even better than +120, especially if the Red Sox start out wickid haaaaaaarrrrrd. Keep some powder dry in case that happens.
Kansas City under 71.5 – This team is a dumpster fire on paper. Line is now around 70 offshore. Would still take a small taste of the under at that number. Catcher S Perez is out for a month or so. That will not help.
Texas under 77 – Not sure where the pitching is going to come from. Number has dropped a small notch. Still like the under at any number 75.5+.
Miami under 64.5 – Had to do it. Number is the same as we go to press. Still like it.
LA Dodgers under 96.5 – The total has dropped a bit. We still lean under the 95.5 range. This division does not get enough credit for being deep. Even YOUR San Diego Padres could be decent.
Giants over 82.5. Argh. Two of their top three SP have sustained injuries. Call us nuts but we would still take them over the depressed number of 80.5.
Nationals over 92. Another decent grab. Would still take a small taste at the current market price of 93.5 but only a small one.
Random thoughts
Be aware of early season cold weather when playing totals. The combination of cold weather and wind blowing in (even slightly) is often not fully factored into the line. The totals can only go so low.
Take early season performance at face value. Some sketchy teams are going to come out of the gate hot. Try to identify those teams and ride a hot streak or two. Within reason, of course.
Look for teams that have better than expected bullpens in the first two weeks. Those teams are often hidden sources of value. You can do an easy sort on mlb.com (team pitching stats/as a reliever).
Teams we have downgraded since early-March: Toronto (argh), Brewers, Texas (again), Twins.
Teams we have upgraded: Cardinals, Phillies, Orioles, Pirates, Oakland.
Opening Day DFS!
One team we are focusing on today is the Baltimore Orioles. Jake Odorizzi has not pitched well at Camden Yards over his career. He has a 3-3 record in 9 starts with an ERA of 5.44 and a WHIP of 1.54 (!). You want DONGS? Odorizzi has allowed 13 in just 48 innings pitched (!!). Machado has taken him deep four times, Chris Davis 3 times, Schooooooooop is hitting .379 against him. Even uber-scrub Danny Valencia has a pair of DINGERS off him in 10 ABs. Overall, Jake is a reverse splits pitcher (tougher on lefties) and the Orioles lineup sets up nicely to take him to POUND TOWN. Stack those bad boys up, yo.
Check out the crew at MEGALOCKS INSIDER!
Be sure to follow @megalocksinsidr on Twitter. Check out the website with records updated daily for everyone to see. Quality, and full transparency. 5-day FREE TRIALS are available.
They have also launched an MLB EARLY BIRD PACKAGE that will only be available until April 1.
Best of luck and enjoy opening day ! MEGA