Jan 1, 2024 Sugar Bowl – Texas vs Washington
posted December 31
NOTE – OUR FUTURES CLUB has a Texas to win the CFP wager alive but we will NOT be participating in any hedging activities right now. GL to all members of that illustrious club!
The Game
We couldn’t ask for a better match-up in the Sugar Bowl as the undefeated Washington Huskies battle the mighty Texas Longhorns in the Sugar Bowl with a spot in the CFP Championship Game on the line! Washington (13-0) has won an impossible 20 (!!) consecutive games and whilst many of those victories were CLOSE SHAVES there’s no doubt that this team knows how to GIT ER DONE. The Longhorns’ (12-1) only loss came on a last second TD vs Oklahoma and recall that they took down ROLL TIDE on the road early in the season.
Let’s do ittttt !
The Details
Texas -4 Washington (63)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Texas -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Texas 33.5 Washington 29.5
Texas offense vs Washington defense
The Longhorns have been a HOT HANDFUL on offense this year (#23 FBS rushing, #18 passing) and note that starting QB Quinn Ewers missed some time due to injury. Ewers doesn’t make many mistakes (21-6 TD to INT; 351 attempts) and he’s got an absolutely loaded group of WR/TE/RB weaponry to utilize in the THROW GAME. #1 WR Xavier Worthy is listed as questionable but everyone else appears to be a full go including WR Adonai Mitchell (813, 10 TD) and stud TE Ja’Tavion Sanders (607, 15.6, 2 TD). The Longhorns lost 1,000-yard RB Jonathon Brooks earlier in the season but they’re really deep at RB and note that the offense didn’t look too shabby in their last two games vs Texas Tech and Oklahoma St (106 combined points). Washington hasn’t been elite on defense (#90 total defense) but they’ve limited the damage whilst giving up a lot of yards (#49 scoring defense) and they’ll have to play at their best in the red zone if they wanna win this game.
Washington offense vs Texas defense
QB Michael Penix has been very productive (33-9 TD to INT, 66%, 9.1 YPA) and the Huskies have been absolutely LETHAL thru the air (#1 FBS passing offense, 344 YPG). They boast the best WR unit in the nation that includes a pair (!) of 1,000-yard WRs (Odunze, Polk) and note that WR Jalen McMillan has missed a lot of the campaign but he’s at 100% as we approach press time. Washington also showed that they could run the football vs a solid front (Oregon) when RB Dillon Johnson rumbled for 152 yards (1,113 on the season) in the PAC 12 title game. The Longhorns have been one of the best teams in the country vs the run (#3, 81 YPG) but their pass defense has been a bit sketchy (#93 passing yards allowed, #34 pass efficiency defense). Texas has booked 32 sacks (#2 Big 12) but Penix has only been sacked 10 times all season (466 attempts).
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Yup, as crazy as it sounds, the Huskies have won 20 (!) games in a row and the last time they tasted defeat was halfway thru the 2022 season when they were upset at Arizona St…..Washington HC Kalen Deboer has quickly become one of the best coaches in the nation (36-8 SU, 25-18-1 ATS)…..Texas HC Steve Sarkisian is 2-3 in bowl action and don’t forget that he coached Washington for a number of years.
Summary
Texas has the better defense and is more balanced on offense. Free money, right? The problem is that Washington has been an impossible fade for a long time. The best play is probably the ‘over’ as it seems likely that both teams will get into the 30s or at least one team will get into the 40s.
Conclusion
Lean – Over 63
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.