Jan 2 2023 – Citrus Bowl – LSU vs Purdue
posted December 31
The Game
Happy New Year, ya’ll !
We’re off to Orlando once again, and if you’re getting sick of the creepy undertones at the Disney properties, why not check out the Citrus Bowl for a change of pace? LSU has put together a solid first season under new HC Brian Kelly as they’ve taken down ROLL TIDE and won the SEC West division along the way. Purdue emerged from the RUBBLE of the Big Ten West in the final weekend and won the division, only to be SPANKED by Michigan in the title game.
The Details
LSU -14.5 Purdue (55.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – LSU -14
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: LSU 35 Purdue 20.5
LSU offense vs Purdue defense
The yuuuge question in this game is the status of deadly dual-threat QB J Daniels who really started to play well before injuring his ankle late in the year (69%, 16-3 TD to INT, 818 rush, 11 TD). Back-up QB G Nussmeier didn’t look bad vs Georgia but he’s a massive downgrade in terms of mobility. The majority of the key RB/WR weaponry will be available including #1 RB J Williams and #1 WR M Nabers. Purdue’s defense has been average (#7 Big Ten run D, #11 pass efficiency D) and they’ll be without starting CB C Trice who’s decided to quit for the year. LSU should most certainly have success regardless of the QB situation but they’ll do well to get to their implied team total (35).
Purdue offense vs LSU defense
It’s tough to know how much Purdue can get done in this game given that several key pieces have packed it in for the season. Starting QB A O’Connell was one of the best QBs in the Big Ten (3,490, 22-13 TD to INT), WR C Jones will be playing on Sundays (110, 1,361, 12 TD), and TE P Durham was one of the best receiving threats at his position. That leaves us with back-up QB A Burton (32 attempts), #1 RB D Mockobee (920, 9 TD), and an underwhelming list of spare parts at WR/TE. LSU will be missing a number of starters from their fine DL so that’ll help the Boilermakers have success at times.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
LSU HC Brian Kelly is 7-6 over his career as HC in bowl action……Former Purdue HC Jeff Brohm left to take the head coaching gig at LUA-VUH…..OC Brian Brohm will be the interm HC for this game…..DC R English is off to LUA-VUH as well…..LSU has played the #10 schedule according to Sagarin…..Purdue #35.
Summary
This is one of the couple dozen bowl games that are tough to figure out from a betting perspective. So many moving and missing pieces. We’ll take a seat for now and look for some SWEET IN-GAME OPPORTUNITIES.
Conclusion
No leanage.
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.