Jan 2 2023 – Cotton Bowl – Tulane vs USC
posted December 31
The Game
It’s time to ring in the new year with some SWEET Power Five vs Group of Five ACTION at the Cotton Bowl! USC came really close to making the CFP in year one of the Lincoln Riley era but they were shut down by Utah in the PAC 12 Championship Game (L 47-24). The Green Wave have been one of the best stories of the college football season as they’ve booked 11 wins and an AAC title just one year after going 2-10 (!). And don’t forget, Tulane won a big road game at Kansas St (!) early in the year, so they’ve proven they can hang with the big boys.
The Details
USC -2 Tulane (63)
MEGALOCKS LINE – USC -2.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: USC 32.5 Tulane 30.5
USC offense vs Tulane defense
The Trojans have been one of the most explosive and entertaining teams to watch this year (#5 FBS total offense, #3 scoring offense) but there are questions heading into the Cotton Bowl. Heisman Trophy winner QB C Williams (4,075, 37-4 TD to INT, 10 rush TD) was playing hurt in the PAC 12 title game and it’s fairly certain that he won’t be 100% for this match-up. They’ll also be without #1 RB T Dye who was knocked out for the year in November, star WR J Addison who’s their best and most deadly offensive weapon, as well as a pair of starting offensive linemen. Tulane has one of the best secondaries in the country (#20 FBS pass efficiency defense) and they should stack up fairly well vs an excellent USC WR corps, even without J Addison. The Tulane run D has been sketchy at times (#75 FBS) so the Trojans will have a good shot of doing damage on the ground if the revamped OL can rise to the occasion.
Tulane offense vs USC defense
The Green Wave have a very underrated offense that’s both balanced (#30 rush, #61 pass) and explosive (35 PPG, #22 FBS). QB M Pratt takes good care of the football (25-5 TD to INT) and is able to take a good number of deep shots along the way (8.6 YPA). The key to the offense is their excellent RB T Spears who’s been an absolute BEAST (1,376, 6.5, 15 TD) and he’s easily one of the most devastating RBs in college football. Pratt also does a good job of spreading the ball around in the THROW GAME as evidenced by the seven doods that’ve booked 230+ receiving yards. The USC defense has been pretty disgusting for the majority of the campaign (#63 run D, #96 pass efficiency D) and they’ve relied heavily on forcing turnovers (27, #6 FBS). Sadly for the Trojans, the Green Wave don’t make many mistakes (15, #33), so it’ll be interesting to see if USC can work their magic one more time.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Tulane has been a DEGENERATE’S BEST FRIEND this year going 11-2 vs Vegas……..Green Wave HC Willie Fritz is 2-1 in bowl games…..USC HC Lincoln Riley was 1-3 in bowl action with Oklahoma…..USC is 35-20 (!) all-time in bowl games but they’ve lost their last two…..Their last bowl appearance was a game to forget as they were POLEAXED by Iowa in the 2019 Holiday Bowl (L 49-24).
Summary
This is the biggest game in Tulane program history and they’ve got the talent to give USC all they want in this contest. If USC QB C Williams is close to 100% this should be a really good game. If not, we expect Tulane to win this game outright. Lean for now, eligible for upgraded status.
Conclusion
Lean – Tulane +2
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.