College Football Predictions – Kansas Jayhawks 2018 NCAA Football Preview
Recap
Record – 1-11
ATS – 3-8-1
“Here we go again. Again.” <Tugg Speedman> <Scorcher 6 – Global Meltdown>
Kansas coughed and sputtered their way to another terrible record, this time a mark of 1-11. They took care of FCS foe SE Missouri in week one and then proceeded to lose the next 11 games in a row. There wasn’t any drama or even a close call. It was just pure filth. It seems like a century ago that the MEGALOCKS POSSE was at the Orange Bowl watching Kansas beat Virginia Tech (January 3, 2008).
Let’s examine if there are any reasons for optimism heading into 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 12 – #10
Kansas Jayhawks 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Carter Stanley and Peyton Bender combined for 14 TD passes and 17 INT in 2017 and both return for duty. The starting job will likely go to Stanley and he showed a flash of potential with a big day vs Kansas St (418 yards). The RB group returns loaded with experience including #1 back Khalil Herbert who lit up Ohio for 137 yards and West Virginia for 291 (!) before being slowed by injury. The WR corps features a legit #1 WR in Steven Sims who tallied 839 yards and 6 TDs in just eight starts. The offensive line returns four starters and they did a decent job in pass protection last year allowing 29 sacks in 460 team attempts. They would like to throw the ball a lot this season but need to balance it out with a better rushing attack. They have not averaged more than 125 yards per game on the ground since 2013 (154).
DEFENSE
Kansas ranked #117 in total defense last year and allowed a grizzly 43.4 PPG (#129 FBS). There is reason to believe they can take a big step forward this year with 10 returning starters (experience almost always matters) and a pair of excellent players to rely upon (talent surely always matters). LB Joe Dineen was a 2nd Team AA (!) last year leading the team in tackles (137) and tallying a mind-boggling 25 TFL. DT Daniel Wise was a 1st Team Big 12 honoree and bagged 7 sacks (16 TFL). Our big concern is improving a pass defense that was blown to smithereens last year (69% completions, 31 TD, only 4 INT).
The starting lineup is littered with juniors and seniors and we project about a TD improvement in PPG allowed this year. More upside is possible if the offense can stay on the field and stop turning the ball over.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Kansas boasts a ROCK CHALK solid PK in Gabriel Rui who went 23/23 on XP last year and 17/20 on FG attempts. They need to break in a new punter. The PR and KR units ranked #84 and #79 respectively last year. Feels like a mixed bag.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Not too bad. Playing in the competitive Big 12 is not easy but they do have a relatively soft out-of-conference schedule (Nicholls, at Central Michigan, Rutgers). They finish the season with a horror show (at Kansas St, at Oklahoma, Texas).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – We refuse to use sarcasm here. Nope. Not going to do it.
Season Win Total
Over 3 +115
Under 3 -145
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. They are capable of winning any of their first four games. We can see them pulling one big upset later on in the year. It’s just hard to feel strongly about these guys given their track record.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
SIT DOWN for this nugget. The last time Kansas won a road game was back in 2009 (!).
The Jayhawks are a combined (-31) in turnover margin over the past two campaigns.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the JAYHAWKS a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
Here we go again. Again.
We expected a bit more out of Kansas last year and were disappointed by the way the season spiraled out of control. This team has a lot of junior and senior starters AND many of them are legit Big 12 players. It seems impossible to think they will be horrible again this year. Right?
Kansas has only had a pair of winning seasons ATS over the last 10 years. This team should be much improved and get the benefit of line value pretty much every week. If they show any signs of life in their non-conference games they could be primed to SHOCK THE WORLD at least once in Big 12 action.
Want more Kansas football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.kuathletics.com/index.aspx?path=football&
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NEWS
http://www2.kusports.com/news/football/
http://bleacherreport.com/kansas-jayhawks-football
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/kansas-jayhawks
Hashtag – #RockChalk, #KUfball
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