Kansas St Wildcats 2024 College Football Preview
Posted July 4, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 9-4
ATS – 9-4
The defending champs didn’t have the season they wanted, that’s for sure. Kansas St lost four regular season games and had to settle for the Pop Tarts Bowl, but at least they took down NC State in a relatively entertaining affair (W 28-19). It’s important to note the the Wildcats lost all four games by one score (!) and one of the defeats came in OT on the road vs mighty Texas. So it’s not like Kansas St didn’t play well in 2023, they just dropped a small handful of close games.
Kansas St Wildcats 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Wildcats had one of the most balanced (204 YPG rush, 241 YPG pass) and potent (37 PPG, #10 FBS) attacks in the country last year and they’ll be turning the keys to the car over to QB Avery Johnson who FLASHED in limited action LY (5-0 TD to INT, 296, 7 rush TD). Johnson promises to be one of the most exciting players in the country this year as he’s got great wheels and a LASER ROCKET ARM. The WR/TE group looks a bit average to us as they’ll certainly miss all-Universe TE Ben Sinnott who’s off to the NFL (Redskins, Redskins, Redskins). Maybe Jayce Brown can take another step forward after a fine season as a true freshman (437, 3 TD) ? If not, they’re really gonna need Penn St transfer, and former Kent St star WR Dante Cephas to deliver in a big way. The 1-2 punch at RB has the potential to be one of the best in college football with DJ Giddens (1,226, 10 TD; 29 receptions, 323, 3 TD) being joined by Colorado’s speedy and deadly Dylan Edwards. The offensive line did some serious work LY (5.0 YPC, 17 sacks allowed) but it’s rebuilding time in Manhattan with four new starters. Johnson automatically makes this one of the more dangerous offenses in the Big 12 but we’re not completely sold on the WR/TE/OL situations.
DEFENSE
Kansas St has been stout on defense for three consecutive years (21 PPG, 22, 21) and they return eight starters in 2024. The word on NARRATIVE STREET is that the DL is well stocked, and while that may be true, time will tell if there are any legit PENETRATORS in the group. At least NG Uso Seumalo (6-3, 337) will plug the middle and give the other guys room to eat. LB Austin Moore is a 2nd Team Big 12 honoree (#1 tackles, 12.5 TFL) and a good piece to build around in the middle of the defense. The back end looks stout as they boast a fine veteran safety combo (Payne, Sigle) and one of the most talented CBs in the conference in Jacob Parrish (9 PBU, 4 INT). This looks like another solid defense but note that Kansas St will be without their top-two sack men from LY’s squad that only booked a total of 25 sacks (#9 Big 12).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things are a bit unsettled as the Wildcats need to load at punter, KR, and PR. Thankfully, PK Chris Tennant is coming off a good season (11/14 FG, 56/57 XP).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – We like it. They avoid the devastating Utah Utes and get to face Oklahoma St and Kansas at home. The toughest game of the entire regular season is probably the finale when they travel to Ames to battle Iowa St. GET CHO POPCONE for that one as it just might decide one of the spots in the Big 12 Championship Game. Note that the week three home date with Arizona is technically a non-conference affair.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Houston (Nov 2)
The Cougars are almost certainly gonna be HOT GARBAGE but this will be Kansas St’s third road game in four weeks and they’ll be coming off the yuuuge rivalry game with Kansas. They’ll also have dreams of the upcoming bye week dancing thru their heads. This doesn’t look like a great spot to lay the points.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 4
Over 9 -115
Under 9 -115
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Under
The schedule isn’t all that difficult but they don’t have a roster that screams “10-wins”.
NOTE – “Lean” implies this is how we’d invest in this market if forced to make a choice. We’ll notify subscribers in our Season Win Total blog post of any season win totals that have made our investment card.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Unlike the majority of what you hear from legacy media, this little tidbit is NOT fake news. HC Chris Klieman is an absolute point-spread covering machine having posted a mark of 41-22 (65%) vs the number during his time in Manhattan. “Kansas St, or pass” has been a good rule to follow for DEGENERATE NATION over the past few years.
Kansas St was a combined +23 in turnover margin over the previous two seasons.
The great Darren Sproles had three consecutive seasons to remember from 2002-2004. Sproles rushed for 1,465, 1,986, and 1,318 yards over that time period whilst scoring 45 times on the ground. He was also a threat out of the backfield (66 receptions, 2 TD) and a fine return man as well (PR 9.5, TD; KR 24.2). All this for a 5 foot 6 dood. Man, he was fun to watch. We hear he was pretty good in the NFL too.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
The Wildcats are a clear contender in the expanded Big 12. They’ve got a rising star at QB, a very good defense, and one of the best head coaches in the business. It wouldn’t surprise us to see them win the Big 12 for the second time in three years but the current market price seems a bit short. We’ll take a pass in the futures market and hope we don’t regret it!