Kentucky at Florida – College Football Predictions

Kentucky at Florida – College Football Predictions

Posted September 7, 2022

The Game

WHOA, NELLIE! The Gators come into this game RED HOT after hanging on to beat Utah in a very exciting week one clash (W 29-26). The Wildcats did what they had to do last week and disposed of the Miami Redhawks by a score of 37-13. These two teams are both LEGIT contenders for the #2 spot in the SEC East. And they hate each other!

Let’s gooooo!

The Details

Florida -5.5 Kentucky (52.5)


MEGALOCKS market consensus – Florida -4.1

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Florida 29 Kentucky 23.5

The Match-Up:

Florida offense vs Kentucky defense

The Gators got a great performance out of QB Anthony Richardson last week who was clutch down the stretch, but lost in the weeds of that game was the fact that the Gators rushed for 283 (!) yards vs a very good Utah D. They go three-deep at RB and Richardson is a threat to go the distance any time he has the ball in his hands. They’re limited at WR but you can’t have everything. Also note that Florida averaged 7 YPC last week whilst allowing ZERO sacks. Kentucky did a good job vs an overmatched foe last week allowing 5.7 PA and 3.5 YPC whilst booking three sacks. The Gators shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball on the ground and it’ll be up to Kentucky to be stout on 3rd downs and force Richardson to make a mistake or two.

Kentucky offense vs Florida defense

Yikes. The Cats rushed for a mere 50 yards (!) last week at home vs a MAC team and it doesn’t look promising this week as star RB C Rodriguez is still suspended and they lost one of their depth pieces at RB for the season due to injury. The OL graded out poorly last week and we don’t expect them to do much on the ground this week. QB Will Levis is a fine passer with an underrated set of targets but it’s a big ask to make him win the game without much run game support. Florida didn’t register a sack last week and don’t have a ton of proven pass rushing ability, so Levis should have time to do some damage, IF the remodeled offensive line can hold up (4 sacks allowed LW).

Trends, Intangibles and More!

Kentucky upset the Gators LY in Lexington (W 20-13) but recall that they were outgained 382-224 (!)…..HC Mark Stoops is 42-22 SU at home but just 14-28 in true road games…..Kentucky is 4-0-1 ATS L5 vs CHOMP CHOMP.


Can the Gators keep the momentum going after that yuuuuge win? Normally, it would probably be something to worry about, but they should have no problem getting up for an SEC East division rival. At home. In the swamp. Kentucky will be forced into throwing a lot more than they want and Florida should win the ground battle by a wide margin and take the game by a TD or a bit more.


Lean – Florida -5.5


‘Official play’ implies we’ve played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we’re comfortable suggesting a ‘small potatoes’ wager if you want to get some sweet action down on the game. ‘Leans’ are eligible for upgrade to ‘official’ status during the week.

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved from a wagering standpoint.