Kentucky Wildcats 2022 College Football Preview

Kentucky Wildcats 2022 College Football Preview

August 9, 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 10-3

ATS – 8-5

Kentucky flew out of the gate like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE and boasted a record of 6-0 after taking apart the mighty LSU Tigers (W 42-21). That set up a game with undefeated Georgia and well, that didn’t go swimmingly (L 30-13). They finished the campaign in fine fashion by winning their final three regular season games and beating Iowa in the Citrus Bowl (W 20-17).

Kentucky Wildcats 2022 Outlook


The Cats had a lot more balance than usual LY (200 YPG rush, 226 pass) thanks to the fine play of QB Will Levis, and as a result, Kentucky averaged 30+ PPG for the first time since 2016. Levis did a lot of great things (2,800 yards, 24 TD; 9 rush TD) but he still threw too many INTs (13). He’s clearly one of the more talented QBs in the SEC but he loses his top-two WRs including the impossibly talented Wan’Dale Robinson who caught 100 (!) balls LY (1,334, 7 TD). Nobody who had more than 200 receiving yards is back for action. Bagging WR Tayvion Robinson from the Hokies will help but Robinson was a CHEAT CODE last season, and we think the THROW GAME takes a step back. The good news is that everyone returns to a loaded RB room including star Christopher Rodriguez who’s must watch TV (1,379, 6.1, 9 TD) and one of the best backs in the country. Just ease up on the fumble-itis and things will be great in 2022. The OL loses a pair of NFL DCs and in all likelihood will be less effective this season. We think they’ll do more of their damage on the ground and struggle to hit the 30 PPG plateau, particularly given the departure of Robinson.


Kentucky was stingy as per usual LY (21.7 PPG, #4 SEC) and were especially effective vs the run (122 YPG, #4 SEC). They didn’t have as much fun defending the pass (#10 SEC pass efficiency D, 66.5%, 20-9 TD to INT). The Cats bring back five starters and three of their top-four tacklers but will be without their best defensive player in DE Joshua Paschal (15.5 TFL, 8 QBH) who was taken in the 2nd round of the NFL draft. There don’t appear to be any stars up front but the group has plenty of size and a definite license to get better as there are several highly-touted specimens in the DL room. The LB level is set with two of the team’s three leading tacklers back for duty in DeAndre Square and Jacquez Jones who are both seniors. We’re concerned about a secondary that returns just a pair of starters and they don’t look much improved on paper compared to the unit that struggled at times in 2021.


Things will be fine with the return of a senior kicking duo in punter Colin Goodfellow (40.7 net LY) and PK Matt Ruffolo (10-13 FG, 54-56 XP LY) but they’ll need to find new primary return men.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – The Cats don’t have any killers in non-conference play and they get a tasty draw from the West by missing ROLL TIDE and Texas A&M. They only play four (!) road games and their final three contests are all at home.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – September 3 – Miami Ohio

The Redhawks are one of the best teams in the MAC and looky looky looky….who does Kentucky play next…..OH, it’s a road trip to Florida, a yuuuuuge SEC game. It’s hard to call for a lookahead spot in week one but we’ll probably steer clear of backing the Cats in week one.

Season Win Total

per BetOnline Aug 9

Over 7.5 -140

Under 7.5 +100


No leanage.

67 of our 78 sets of power ratings have them winning seven or eight games.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

HC Mark Stoops has DEGENERATE NATION top of mind when in the point spread role of home favorite (19-12, 68%), but not so much when embroiled in SEC play (32-40-2, 44%).

When did Ashley Judd become, “not hot” ?


Mark Stoops has done a great job with this program and keeping the team competitive in the tough SEC East. And by the way, Kentucky has a PAIR of 10-win seasons over the last four years. That’s some SWEET ACTION. They don’t appear to have double-digit win talent coming into 2022 but we fully expect them to be a tough out and finish with seven or eight wins.

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