Las Vegas Bowl – Arizona St vs Fresno St
The Game
Viva Las Vegas!
This has the makings of a really good game. Fresno St is coming off a Mountain West Championship Game in which they took down Boise St on the famed SMURF TURF. Arizona St has been better than many expected in year one of the Herm Edwards regime and came really close to taking down the PAC 12 South. The Sun Devils won four of their last five games including a crazy comeback win over Arizona in their regular season finale.
The Details
Fresno St -4 Arizona St (53.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Fresno St -3.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Fresno St 28.75 Arizona St 24.75
The Match-Up:
Fresno St offense vs Arizona St defense
We get one final game out of the Bulldogs’ excellent signal caller Marcus McMaryion who led his team to the Mountain West title. McMaryion completed 69.8% of his passes with an outstanding 25-3 TD to INT ratio during the regular season. That’s just three (!) INTs in 398 attempts. He also rushed for seven TDs and Fresno tallied 28 scores on the ground as a team. They were only ranked #96 in the FBS in rushing but did damage inside the red zone. Outside the red zone? Not very explosive. They only had 3 runs of 30+ yards all season and averaged a paltry 4.1 YPC as a team. The passing attack is efficient and will be able to move the ball effectively vs an Arizona St pass defense that is ranked #81 in efficiency. Star WR KeeSean Johnson has over 1,300 yards receiving and should have a big game. The Sun Devils allowed 20+ points in each of their final 10 games and will have to find a way to get some pressure on the Fresno QB (T4 PAC 12 in sacks – 29).
Arizona St offense vs Fresno St defense
QB Manny Wilkins had a good season under center and will almost certainly surpass the 3,000-yard mark (2,896) in this game. Wilkins had a 19-4 TD to INT ratio and added 8 scores on the ground. The bad news? The Sun Devils will be without star WR N’Keal Harry who had over 1,000 yards receiving and accounted for 9 of the Sun Devils’ 19 TD receptions. The recipe in this contest should be a heavy dose of RB Eno Benjamin who ran for over 1,500 yards and 15 scores. Benjamin is a workhorse and had more than a few big games including torching Oregon St for 312 yards. Fresno’s defense is rock solid (#17 overall, #27 vs the run, #7 pass efficiency D) but Boise managed to pound the ball effectively with the run game (44-179, 55-225) in their two meetings. The Sun Devils only had 9 (!!) turnovers all season which was the best mark in the FBS outside of Army and Georgia Southern. Arizona St will need to continue their success on 3rd downs (#3 FBS) and keep the chains moving. The big plays will not be there as much without Harry in the lineup. It should also be noted that Fresno St is #1 in the FBS in red zone defense.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
These two teams are both ranked in the top-12 in turnover margin……Fresno St is +13……Arizona St is +9…….Fresno St has lost both of their Las Vegas Bowl appearances (1999, 2013)…..The PAC 12 was 1-8 SU in bowl games last season……a HORROR SHOW as Pauly Howard would say.
Summary
This is a tough game to pick a side. Both teams should be motivated. Arizona St can play the “nobody respects us” card. Fresno St is looking to bag a 12-win season for the first time in school history and are sure to be up for a game against a PAC 12 opponent. Part of us worries a bit about coming down off the high of finally exercising the SMURF TURF DEMONS in their big win over Boise St.
The spread looks about right. The total seems a bit rich and the under feels like the best play in the game.
Conclusion
Official play: None yet.
Side: No leanage to report.
Total: Lean to the under.
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.