College Football Predictions – Liberty Flames 2020 College Football Preview
August 25, 2020
2019 Recap
Record – 8-5
ATS – 7-6
Well done, men!
The Flames were eligible to participate in bowl season for the first time and they didn’t waste their chance. They got off to a bit of a rough start losing to Syracuse and Louisiana, but then caught FIRE and rattled off five consecutive wins, including one over a very good Buffalo squad (W 35-17). They dropped a pair later in the year (at BYU, at Virginia) and gave the Cougars all they could handle in Provo (L 31-24). The bowl game was a rousing success as they took down Georgia Southern (W 23-17) in the Cure Bowl.
Year one of the Hugh Freeze era went well. What can they do for an encore?
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Independents – TBD
Liberty Flames 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Flames scored 30+ PPG for the third consecutive season behind the fine play of QB Stephen Calvert who threw for over 3,600 (!) yards and 28 TD passes. That was Calvert 2nd consecutive 3,000-yard campaign, and the Cure Bowl win was a fine way to end his Liberty career. All is not lost this year as Auburn transfer Malik Willis who will bring some mobility to the equation. It should be fun to see what Freeze can do with a dual-threat QB running the show. The Flames will need to replace 1,000-yard rusher Frankie Hickson but it seems reasonable to assume that last year’s back-up Joshua Mack can be a legit #1 option (774, 5.8, 7 TD LY). The loss of superstar WR Antonio Gandy-Golden (1,396, 17.7, 10 TDs) to the NFL (Redskins) leaves a yuuuuuge hole to fill but they do return their #2,#3 and #4 WRs as well as TE Johnny Huntley. Three starters are back on the offensive line and note the addition of Ole Miss transfer Bryce Matthews.
The offense will have a different flavor but there is plenty of talent on board and we trust Hugh Freeze to have these guys SCORING THE FOOTBALL at a good pace once again.
DEFENSE
Things don’t look as promising on this side of the ball. They improved quite a bit LY allowing just 28.1 PPG (36.8 in 2018) but were still mediocre vs the pass (#82 FBS pass efficiency D, 27 TDs) and weren’t exactly a brick wall vs the run (190 YPG, #96 FBS). They were good at rushing the passer (35 sacks) (!) and were top-40 in red zone TD % allowed. This year they will be without their top-three tacklers from a season ago and note that one of those men (Jessie Lemonier) led the team in sacks (10.5) (!) and is off to the NFL (Chargers). The lack of starting experience at LB is a problem but the DL should be in good shape with the return of DE TreShaun Clark and NT Ralfs Rusins. The depth at secondary took a hit recently when a pair of CBs left the team unexpectedly.
We expect their overall performance to be down a notch due to the departure of some talented seniors, not to mention a lack of depth.
SPECIAL TEAMS
PK Alex Probert moves on (13/19 FG LY) and the hope is that Penn St transfer Alex Barbir can do a good job. KR Shedro Louis did a good job LY (TD) but note that Liberty was dead last (!) in the FBS in punt returns LY averaging less than one yard per return.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Nine games are booked as we approach press time (5 road, 4 home). They open on the road with a nasty WKU squad and also travel to Syracuse, Virginia Tech, and NC State. There are two FCS teams on the docket.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at WKU (September 19th)
The Hilltoppers defense is rock solid and this isn’t an ideal game for the new starting QB and inexperienced defense to get their feet wet. Very unlikely we’ll be on the road dog in this spot.
Season Win Total
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGALOCKS says:
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Liberty has accumulated a fine 102-60 record (.630) since 2006. The major of that time was spent in the Big South Conference.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
If nothing else, this should be a fun team to watch. The offense will have a different look but should still be potent. The defense was sneaky good last year but we’re not sure they can repeat on that side of the ball. The road schedule doesn’t do them any favors but our LIBERTY INSIDERS still think they have a legit shot to get to .500.
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