Liberty Flames 2023 College Football Preview
June 15, 2023
2022 Recap
Record – 8-5
ATS – 5-7 (vs FBS)
The Flames were a force to be reckoned with for the majority of the season. They got off to a hot 8-1 start with their only loss coming by ONE POINT on the road at Wake Forest (L 37-36). Included in those eight victories was a road triumph over WOO PIG on the road, and there’s no doubt that defeating an SEC team ON THE HIGHWAY was definitely the apex of the campaign. Things took a nasty detour to TURD TOWN after that victory as they lost at UConn (an 888,000 unit MEGALOCKS TRUST THE SCIENCE SUPER LOCK winner), and didn’t win another game the rest of the way.
Let’s see what former Coastal Carolina HC Jamey Chadwell has to work with in year one of his tour in Lynchburg.
Liberty Flames 2023 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Flames were a solid rushing team in 2022 (173 YPG, #50 FBS) and they’ll have a very strong ground game in 2023, particularly when you consider how Jamey Chadwell prefers to do things on offense. They have a deep RB group which is yuuuge and we’re excited to see how the new faces perform. James Jointer Jr (WOO PIG) and Quinton Cooley (Wake Forest) are both talented and impressive specimens, and don’t sleep on freshman Vaughn Blue. They have a few QBs that could theoretically do the job but we expect the battle to rage on throughout the summer. Last year’s duo of Johnathan Bennett and Kaidon Salter are both in the mix along with Southern Miss transfer Trey Lowe. The Flames will have a veteran OL capable of making the run game work, but our primary concern with the offense is a WR unit that appears to be void of serious weaponry. Nobody with more than 25 receptions LY returns for duty and they’ll definitely miss #1 WR Demario Douglas (993, 6 TD).
DEFENSE
Liberty has been very good on this side of the football for a number of seasons (#35, #11, #11 total defense FBS L3Y) so it’ll be interesting to see how they fare this year with a lot of new faces. DC Skylor Magee follows HC Jeremy Chadwell into town and he did a fine job with the Chanticleers defense during his time in Conway. Job #1 will be trying to maintain the excellent level of PENETRATION that the Flames exhibited LY (#1 TFL per game FBS; #3 sacks per game) (!). They only bring back a handful of starters but they’re some good ones in DT Kendy Charles (5.5 sacks LY), CB Coby Singleton, and transfer DB Brandon Bishop (Louisiana). There’s potential for good things on defense but we’ll call for a small step backwards in overall production, particularly when it comes to PENETRATION.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things could be a bit sketchy. PK Nick Brown was just 11/19 on FGA LY and punter Max Morgan hasn’t played since 2021 (42.9 tho).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – They have a buttery-soft non-conference slate (Bowling Green, at Buffalo, ODU, UMass) and they picked a good time to join Conference USA.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Buffalo (Sept 16)
The Bulls don’t appear to be extremely dangerous but this is a conference sandwich situation (New Mexico St, at FIU). They’ll likely be road chalk in this spot and we’ll probably refrain from backing the Flames.
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 15 <wide range of prices are available>
Over 8 -130
Under 8 +110
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
That’s not a cheap price but they’re almost certain to get off to a hot start again, and WHOA NELLIE, doesn’t that schedule look favorable?
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Lynchburg is home to the world-famous Jack Daniel’s Distillery. Although commonly associated with Tennessee, Jack Daniel was born and raised in Lynchburg, Virginia, and started making whiskey whilst still a teenager. ** ^^
** well done, Jack
^^ don’t tell Karen
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
This is one of the more intriguing Group of Five teams in the country. It would be easy to call for a letdown after the departure of Hugh Freeze (34-15) but they scooped up another excellent HC in Jamey Chadwell. They’ll be able to run the ball on everyone and just have to hope for above-average QB play to make a serious run at the C-USA title. We don’t think the defense will be as SALTY as recent editions but they’ll get the benefit of playing a bunch of TOMATO CANS. A serious player in the revamped Conference USA. Go Flames!