College Football Predictions – Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 8-5
ATS – 7-6
Yawn.
It was another winning season for the Bulldogs and that makes five straight of those under the tutelage of their fine HC Skip Holtz. They started conference play in good form beating the Mean Green on the road but lost the very next week to the JUGGERNAUT UAB Blazers. Three conference losses wasn’t gonna get the job done, but they showed up YET AGAIN in their bowl game and defeated the Rainbow Warriors in convincing fashion in the Hawaii Bowl. That makes it a perfect 5/5 in bowl games in Ruston for the SKIPPER.
This has been a really consistent program over the past number of years but they haven’t been able to bag a conference title under Holtz’s watch. Is this the year?
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #3
Conference USA – #4
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Bulldogs’ offense TANKED by their standards last year as they scored fewer than 30 PPG (24.7) for the first time since 2013 (19.2), and that placed them at #9 in the C-USA pecking order. The main culprit was poor offensive line play as they only gained 3.8 YPC whilst allowing 33 sacks (T9 C-USA). The good news is that they should have better injury luck this season and have an experienced front returning for duty. QB J’Mar Smith is decent but needs to cut down on the mistakes (15-10 TD to INT LY) and complete more than 57% of his passes.
The rushing attack appears to be in good hands as Jaqwis Dancy and Israel Tucker combined for over 1,000 yards on the ground and 12 rushing scores in 2018. The WR group features a star in Adrian Hardy who banked over 1,100 yards receiving at over 15 yards a pop, but note that the depth behind him is a concern due to several departures from the roster. Maybe TCU transfer Isaiah Graham can emerge as an effective complement to Hardy?
It seems reasonable to expect a moderate increase in production to the 30 PPG level.
DEFENSE
The Bulldogs have featured a strong defense in four of the last five years and they allowed a mere 23.0 PPG (#4 C-USA) in 2018. There is a BIGGIE SIZE loss to report as they will be without college football’s ALL TIME sack leader in Jaylon Ferguson (45). In fact, the entire starting defensive line needs to be replaced and that is our primary concern with the Bulldogs this year. It doesn’t help that their ace DC Blake Baker is off to take the same role with YOUR Miami Hurricanes. We aren’t huge Bob Diaco guys, but hey, let’s give it a go. The LB unit looks solid with their top-two tacklers back in the fold and their secondary features three returning starters including ace CB Amik Robertson (1st Team C-USA).
We view this as a slightly-above average stop unit. Keep a close eye on the proceedings in September to see if they have been able to cobble together a decent pass rush.
SPECIAL TEAMS
RUH ROH. The Bulldogs lose their solid punter Davan Dyer (37.2 net LY) and PR Teddy Veal (12.3 avg LY). PK Bradley Hale connected on just 5/11 FGs from outside 30 (!) yards in 2018.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Not bad. They get to face Southern Miss and North Texas in Ruston. The only unwinnable game appears to be the week one tilt at Texas. Then again, Maryland beat the Longhorns in each of the past two seasons. Not saying, just saying.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – There are a few scary lookahead spots but the Bulldogs and Skip Holtz ALWAYS get our respect ATS (see below).
Season Win Total
Over 7.5 -125
Under 7.5 +105
MEGALOCKS says:
Hmm. That looks about right. It’s not going to be easy getting to eight wins but they have a way of doing just that more often than not.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Louisiana Tech’s last conference title came back in 2011 when they won the WAC under HC Sonny Dykes.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
The Bulldogs are going to find themselves in a middle of a dogfight this year. UAB, North Texas, and Southern Miss all look to be legitimate contenders for the C-USA West throne. Louisiana Tech is in the mix, but to be fair, we worry about the reload on the defensive line and the ceiling of QB J’Mar Smith. We give them a punchers’ chance of taking down the division but they may have to win a tough road game (at UAB) in late November to GIT ER DONE.
We have always loved ourselves some SKIP HOLTZ ACTION when it comes to playing the point spread and he has booked a 59% ATS mark over the past five seasons. We could justify an overall positive point spread outlook and would not be offended by anyone that made that choice. We will watch early on and get ready to pounce if appropriate during conference play.
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NEWS
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2348/louisiana-tech-bulldogs
http://www.thenewsstar.com/sports/louisiana-tech/
http://bleacherreport.com/louisiana-tech-football
http://www.shreveporttimes.com/sports/colleges/
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/louisiana-tech-bulldogs
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