College Football Predictions – Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 2020 College Football Preview
August 20, 2020
2019 Recap
Record – 10-3
ATS – 8-5
Another year. Another winning season. Another bowl win.
The Bulldogs lost their season opener on the road at Texas (L 45-14) and then went on a massive HEATER winning their next EIGHT games in a row. Most of those wins were in comfortable fashion and things looked really good. They proceeded to drop the next pair of conference games, including a killer loss to UAB (L 20-14), and missed out on a division title on the tiebreaker. They disposed of YOUR Miami Hurricanes in the Independence Bowl (W 14-CACK) and won ten games for the first time as an FBS program.
The Bulldogs have a lot of new starters this season. Can they compete for a division crown in a transition year?
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #2
Conference USA – #4
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Bulldogs were back to their old tricks last year and scored 30+ PPG for the 5th time in the last six seasons (32.5, #2 C-USA). They featured excellent balance (#4 rushing, #4 passing C-USA) and solid QB play from J’Mar Smith (2,977, 18-5 TD to INT, 4 rushing TD). Smith moves on this year and leaves a big hole at the most important position. Last year’s back-up Aaron Allen is the likely starter and note that he got some work in last year vs a pair of good opponents (Marshall, UAB). The Bulldogs lost those games but at least we know that Allen has seen some LIVE BULLETS. Senior RB Justin Henderson will be called upon to be a yuuuuge part of the offense and he’s coming off a phenomenal campaign in which he rushed for over 1,000 yards and 15 TDs whilst catching 20 balls out of the backfield. #2 rusher Israel Tucker also returns. The WR group has plenty of experienced players back in the mix as five of the top six WRs from LY are ready to roll. Only two starters are back up front but those are key components in C Kody Russey and LT Willie Allen.
The offense will take a step back but should still put up the customary 30 PPG, even with a new QB and OC.
DEFENSE
Louisiana Tech had a good season on this side of the ball LY and allowed just 22 PPG (#3-CUSA). They gave up more yards than you would expect, particularly vs the pass, but they forced the 2nd most turnovers in the conference (26) and were #1 in C-USA in opponent red zone TD%. It’s anyone’s guess how effective the Bulldogs will be this year and they lose a yuuuuge number of talented upperclassmen and return just a pair of starters to the stop unit. They also introduce a new DC and move to a 4-3 alignment. DE/LB Milton Williams led the team in sacks LY (5.5) and is one of the two starters back in the mix on defense. LB Ezekiel Barnett finished 2nd on the team in tackles LY and be asked to be a major contributor. The secondary starts fresh and they’ll really miss CB Amik Robertson who was one of the best at his position in college football in 2019 (NFL – Raiders).
They have a history of playing good defense more times than not, so we’ll call for them to be an average group this year despite all the new faces.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This looks like a problem area. The need to break in a new PK after the graduation of Bailey Hale (15/18 FG LY), and while senior punter Brady Farlow is back, note that they were #126 in the FBS in net punting in 2019. They averaged just five yards per PR LY but Smoke Harris and Wayne Toussant both did well returning kickoffs.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The docket is pretty much set with 11 games. We’ll see if they add another non-conference game, but it doesn’t seem likely at this point. The open on the road at Baylor which will be a tough game and face Houston Baptist and ULM at home. One interesting tidbit is that the first C-USA tilt is on the road vs Southern Miss and both teams are considered mid-tier contenders in the division behind UAB.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at UTSA (October 24th)
This game is sandwiched between a pair of home games with tough opponents (Marshall, UAB) and the Roadrunners look to be improved this year. Not a great spot to lay points with the Bulldogs.
Season Win Total
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGALOCKS says:
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
Assuming 11 games, we’d open something close to Over 7 +105, Under 7 -125.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
The Bulldogs have made a bowl game in six consecutive seasons and won on every occasion. Louisiana Tech just might be able to beat ROLL TIDE if they met in a bowl game. Just kidding. Not really.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
You know we love ourselves some Skip Holtz who’s built a really consistent program in Ruston. It’ll be a challenge competing for a division title this year given the roster turnover, and it’s important to note that UAB looks like a MONSTER. We’ll call for a winning year but don’t see them taking down the division in 2020.
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