College Football Predictions – Louisville Cardinals 2020 College Football Preview
August 15, 2020
2019 Recap
Record – 8-5
ATS – 8-5
Yes, guy.
Head coach Scott Satterfield was a well-deserved recipient of ACC Coach of the Year honors as he led the Cardinals to an 8-5 mark (5-3 ACC) in his first year with the team. That was a MASSIVE improvement over the Cards’ two-win DEBACLE in 2018. The Cards finished off the season in fine form with a win over Mississippi St in the Music City Bowl (38-28) and look to keep the momentum going in 2020.
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
ACC – #6
<Note: In 2020, the top two teams in the ACC advance to the conference title game regardless of division. That includes Notre Dame.>
Louisville Cardinals 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Louisville offense was inconsistent last year BUT very explosive. They finished the campaign ranked #24 in the FBS in total offense (#24 rushing, #65 passing, #9 passing efficiency) but they were #7 in yards per attempt passing (LSU was #5) and #T8 in 20+ yard rushing plays. The big problem was the ineptness of the offensive line when it came to preventing TFL. They ranked dead last (!) in the FBS by a wide margin and allowed 10 of those bad boys per game.
The Cards should put up plenty of points this year when considering the dangerous weapons that return to the mix. QB Micale Cunningham completed 62% of his passes with an impressive 22-5 TD to INT ratio whilst rushing for six more TDs in 2019 and he has plenty of exciting players around him to make the offense click. Freshman RB Javian Hawkins comes back after a great campaign in which he rushed for 1,525 yards (eight 100-yard games) and Cunningham has one of the most dangerous WR duos in college football ready to make plays IN SPACE. Tutu Atwell (70-1,276, 12 TD) and Dez Fitzpatrick (35-635, 6 TD) each averaged 18 YPC LY and note that TE/H-Back Marshon Ford averaged 14.6 per reception whilst hauling in 7 TDs last campaign. Can the offensive line do a better job of stopping their QB from getting smoked and preventing TFL? Well, they lost an all-world tackle to the New York Jets (Mekhi Becton) so we remain skeptical that things will get a whole lot better. Then again, they can’t get worse. AMIRITE?
This looks like one of the best offenses in the ACC and they should easily rank in the top 20 in total offense. If the offensive line can make some strides, look out.
DEFENSE
Last season’s Louisville defense allowed fewer YPG and PPG than the DUMPSTER FIRE that was the 2018 stop unit but they still finished the campaign rated #102 in the FBS in total defense and #112 vs the run (206 YPG). They allowed 500+ yards on six occasions, and who can forget the devastation vs Kentucky when the Cats rushed for an impossible 517 yards? Good times.
Let’s get upbeat! Nine of their top-eleven tacklers return for duty and the linebacker group looks especially promising. All four starters return to that unit and C.J. Avery and Rodjay Burns were 1-2 in tackles a season ago. We worry about the size up front and the ability of the defense as a whole to get PENETRATION (#12 ACC, 27 sacks, #12 ACC TFL/game). We are also concerned about a secondary that allowed an ACC-worst 31 TD passes and the Cardinals only managed to bag seven INTs in thirteen games.
We forecast a slight improvement in their defensive performance but it’s hard to imagine them cracking the top-half of the ACC in terms of total defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The return units look mighty SPICY with the return of the key components (Burns, Atwell, Hall) (Cards #5 FBS punt returns, #25 kickoff returns LY). The kicking game is a concern with the departure of PK Blanton Creque (torn ACL late last year; was a senior) and a yet-to-be named player handling the punting duties.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – They take on the SCRAPPY Hilltoppers in non-conference play. They no longer have to face Clemson (!) and note that they also avoid UNC. The back-end of the slate is MUCH easier than the first half. Three of their first four ACC tilts are DOOZIES (Miami, at Pitt, at Irish).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Western Kentucky (September 12th)
The TOPPERS won’t be an easy out this year and the Cardinals are going to have their hands full in week one. Both schools reside in the state of Kentucky. We doubt we’ll be on the favorite in this affair.
Season Win Total
Over 7 -130
Under 7 +100
MEGALOCKS says:
Quote from the summer – “Over 7 -125, Under 7 +105 feels like a reasonable opener. <grabs popcorn>”
Update. Bang on, yo. We’ll take a pass at that number.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Only two QBs placed in the top-5 in both of these metrics: YPA, YPA on play action. Those men? Micale Cunningham, and some dude named Joe Burrow. #study
Louisville has allowed 34+ points in 15 of their last 20 games. That nugget is brought to you by the great folks at College Football News.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
The Cardinals took a big leap forward last season under the tutelage of Scott Satterfield but it’s a lot to ask them to compete with the big boys like Clemson this year. Anything can happen on a given day on the GRIDIRON, but even if the Cards manage to SHOCK the WORLD and pull an upset or two, we fear that the defense is going to let them down on a small handful of occasions. We’ll call for a seven win season, but whatever happens, this team will be fun to watch!
#GoCards
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