LSU at Auburn – College Football Predictions
The Game
Yes, guy.
Big boy SEC football gets going this week when LSU visits Auburn on Saturday afternoon. BOTH teams are 2-0 and BOTH teams have impressive wins on the resume. LSU did a number on Miami and Auburn beat a really good Washington team. Can LSU muster up enough offense to keep this game close?
Let’s take a look.
The Details
Auburn -10 LSU (44.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Auburn -8
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Auburn 27.25 LSU 17.25
The Match-Up:
LSU offense vs Auburn defense
This is gonna be a grind, yo. LSU couldn’t crack 300 yards of offense vs YOUR Miami Hurricanes in week one and didn’t exactly set the house on fire in week two vs FCS foe SE Louisiana. The jury is still out on QB Joe Burrow (48% completions) but he has yet to throw an interception and looks the part of a decent SEC signal-caller. We will know more after this game. LSU does not have anyone with more than 100 (!) receiving yards as we go to press so it will be up to the ground game and RB Nick Brossette (262 6.4, 2 TD) to find a way to keep the chains moving vs one of the best DLs in college football. Auburn allowed 398 yards of offense to Washington in week one but the LSU offense is definitely a notch (or two) below that of the Huskies. It seems like LSU will need to make the most of their red zone opportunities and maybe even bag a non-offensive TD to win this game.
Auburn offense vs LSU defense
QB Jarrett Stidham is a good fit for the Auburn offense BUT keep in mind that he only tossed 18 TDs in 14 (!) games last season and has a TD to INT ratio of 2-0 so far this year. They lack proven weapons in the passing game and appear to be struggling with the explosive element of the rushing attack (see more below) compared to recent Auburn standards. This week they face a rock solid LSU defense that features at least a pair of future NFL players. LSU made Miami look like TRASH for most of the game and shutout SE Louisiana last week. We don’t necessarily buy the rumor that Auburn is gonna carve through these guys like a hot knife through butter.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The home team has won 16 of the last 18 meetings……NARRATIVE STREET GUY is all over the Auburn “revenge” angle after LSU pulled a victory out of the fire last season…..News flash….these teams hate each other and if Auburn wins big it’s not because of “revenge”…..Neither team needs extra motivation for this contest……Amaze your boss at the next BORING OFFICE PARTY with this gem….Auburn’s longest run this season is 26 yards in 104 (!) attempts. Catch the excitement.
Summary
This is going to be more of an old-school game than the young Sparkies out there are used to watching. Neither team has demonstrated much explosiveness and both teams play great defense. This is a pretty big number for Auburn to cover considering how poor they have been in the role of home favorite in recent times (7-15-1 ATS last four years).
Make no mistake. If Auburn drills LSU that would be really impressive. We forecast a relatively low scoring game with LSU having a great chance to cover if they finish no worse than (-1) in turnover margin. We love watching SNOT BUBBLER games like this where the defense is great and every possession matters. <grabs popcorn>
Conclusion
Official play: None yet. Still thinking about our options.
Side: Lean to LSU at +10 or better.
Total: Lean to the under.
Note:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.