LSU Tigers 2020 College Football Preview

College Football Predictions – LSU Tigers 2020 College Football Preview

August 28, 2020

2019 Recap

Record – 15-0

ATS – 11-4

WHOA, NELLIE doesn’t do it justice.

The Tigers put on one of the greatest displays in the history of college football and rolled to a 15-0 record and a well-deserved National Championship. They averaged almost 50 PPG and were literally unstoppable on offense while the defense was good enough to prevent anxious moments along the way. Great for COACH O and the state of LOUISIANA!

With so much elite talent off to the NFL, do the Tigers have a chance to get back to the SEC Championship Game? Inquiring minds want to know.

2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

West Division – TBD

SEC – TBD

LSU Tigers 2020 Outlook

OFFENSE

Yup, that was special.

LSU put on one of the most devastating offensive performances of all-time last season and led the country in scoring offense (48.4, scored 50+ seven times) and total offense (568 YPG). Joe Burrow threw for a record 60 (!!) TD passes (just 6 INTs) and is off to the NFL (Bengals). The Tigers lose a ton of talent to the pros and will also be without their offensive guru Joe Brady.

Last year’s back-up QB Myles Brennan takes over under center and should be solid according to all reports. Brennan only threw 40 passes LY so it remains to be seen how he performs when live bullets are flying. WR Justin Jefferson caught an impossible 111 (!) passes LY and will be missed, but the GREAT news is the return of star WR Ja’Marr Chase who is arguably the best receiver in the country (84, 1,780, 21.2, 20 TD LY), along with #3 man Terrance Marshall (46, 671, 13 TD LY). Also note that the Tigers bagged a highly-recruited specimen at TE in Arik Gilbert who could easily star right away in this offense. The departure of their excellent RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (1,400 yards rushing, 55 receptions, 17 TDs) is definitely problematic and it remains to be seen if there is a legit star waiting to emerge. The #2,#3 and #4 RBs all return so there’s certainly depth in the room, not to mention raw talent. The biggest concern on this side of the ball is an offensive line that lost THREE (!) starters to the NFL and needs to be rebuilt. The big boys were a MAJOR reason for the success they enjoyed last year.

It’s obvious they’ll take a large step back this year in terms of production but this still appears to be one of the best offenses in the SEC.

<Update. August 30. Ja’Marr Chase has opted out of the season.>

DEFENSE

The Tigers finished LY ranked #8 in the conference in scoring defense (21.9 PPG, #32 FBS) and #9 in the SEC in total defense (344 YPG, #31 FBS) but recall that opposing offenses spent a lot of time playing catch-up and put up a lot of meaningless yards. One point of fact is that LSU was #9 in the SEC in pass defense LY but #2 in pass efficiency D. They were tied with ROLL TIDE for the most INTs in the conference (17) and only allowed 51% completions.

The Tigers lose ace DC Dave Aranda to the Baylor Bears (HC) and will rely on Bo Pelini to lead the defensive unit in 2020. The Tigers return just four starters after DB Kary Vincent Jr. decided to opt out of the campaign, and note that projected starting DE Neil Farrell also elected to sit out the season. LSU still looks strong up front and moves to a 4-3 alignment. That’s a good move given they lost THREE (!) LBs to the NFL. The best news on this side of the ball is that they boast two of the best secondary players in college football in CB Derek Stingley and safety JaCoby Stevens. Stevens is the only player returning for duty that finished in the top-5 in tackles LY.

The unit is CHOCK-FULL of raw talent but there’s definitely concern at LB, and it’s always a bit of worry when a new (albeit, experienced) DC takes the reigns.

<Update Aug 31. Starting DL Tyler Shelvin has opted out of the 2020 season.>

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Tigers boast one of the best kicking combos in the SEC. PK Cade York is coming off a fine freshman campaign (21/27 FG, 4/5 from 50+) and punter Zach Von Rosenberg is rock solid. They have enough explosive athletes on hand to cobble together a decent PR/KR combo.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – LSU draws well out of the SEC East as they get a pair of FREE SQUARES in Missouri and Vanderbilt. They avoid Georgia but need to face the Gators in the SWAMP. The back half of the docket is much more difficult as they face Auburn (A), ROLL TIDE (H), and Texas A&M (A).

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Florida (October 17th)

This will be the first time they get punched in the mouth with any force after starting the year with the Bulldogs, Commodores, and Missouri. This is always a tough fight and the Gators hold the experience edge.

Season Win Total

Over 7 -140

Under 7 +110

MEGALOCKS says:

Our BATON ROUGE SEASON WIN TOTAL INSIDERS have the fair line very close to the current market price. Gun the head (just kidding, kids) we would play the ‘over’ as it’s hard to see this team losing four games. Taking a pass for now but will shop around for a better price.

MEGAmazing Tidbit

LSU has booked a combined turnover margin of +32 over the past three seasons (+10,+12,+10). REGRESSION TO THE MEAN GUY may want to take note.

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

What do you do for an encore?

LSU treated the college football world, as well as MEGALOCKS FUTURES CLUB MEMBERS, to an astonishing display of excellence last year. They still have a lot of raw talent and some proven stars on the roster but there are a few question marks to consider. How will Myles Brennan perform at QB? What about the new starting offensive line and LB corps? No Dave Aranda? We’ll call for a seven or eight win season but think they’ll miss out on the SEC Championship Game in 2020.

In any event, GEAUX TIGERS!

<Update. August 30. Ja’Marr Chase has opted out of the season.>

Want more LSU football ?

WEBSITE

https://lsusports.net/sports/football?path=fb

FORUM

http://www.tigerdroppings.com/rant/lsu-sports/

http://lsu.247sports.com/Board/LSU-Football-Message-Board-Forums-59425

http://www.tigerfan.com/forums/the-tigers-den.5/

https://lsu.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-tiger-den.18/

NEWS

http://www.andthevalleyshook.com/