MEGALOCKS BLOG – March 16, 2018
March Madness – Surviving the grind!
WHOA! That was a fun day 1. March Madness rarely fails to deliver and yesterday was no exception.
The focus today is once again on the MENTAL game. We know it is hard to keep your cool when it feels like you got some tough luck, but you have to keep your wits about yourself when action is DOWN on the NCAA tournament. Yesterday was a prime example.
HOT SPICY TAKE #1 – A lot of these games are going to be close shaves. DEAL WITH IT.
We cannot possibly go through all the games that were REALLY close to the closing line. Totals AND spreads. A small selection? Games involving Kansas, Duke, Davidson, Loyola, Ohio St, Sooners (OT), etc…..If you want a really good breakdown of the close shaves listen to the VSIN Follow the Money show from Friday am. Always great, but this one was an A+.
So what is the actionable advice? 1. As we always say – play safe. Your emotions will almost always get the better of you when your wager size is too large for your bankroll. Remember that this is recreation for most of us and is supposed to be FUN. You just have to ignore the fact that everyone on Twitter and on message boards win countless millions on a daily basis. 2. Understand and embrace variance. The close calls even out. Your ultimate success will be decided by good picks supported by sound money management.
HOT SPICY TAKE #2 – Keep a level head. Your luck can change FAST.
Imagine having the Oklahoma/Rhode Island under in the first game (we had no dog in the fight). Under looking like solid gold until it went to OT. Imagine if you had Kentucky. Davidson hits a “meaningless” 3-pointer with two seconds left to make the game land on “5” (closing line most shops). Whew. We got lucky with that finish.
So what is the actionable advice? Grind it out and ENJOY the tournament. Keep your bet size in check. Forget the last game and move on to the next. You are not gonna win every day, week or month.
UPDATE from the LINKS
If you missed our blog from earlier in the week talking about the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the importance of shopping around here is a handy link.
Arnold Palmer Invitational – Let’s fire some darts, yo! MEGALOCKS BLOG – March 14, 2018
Stenson is tied for the lead midway through round 2 of the tournament. He is the favorite to win at offshore books as we go to press, but realistically, he is still at best a 1 in 5 shot to take home the dough. The point is not to brag about one lucky pick but to reinforce the importance of shopping for value. March Madness day 1 reminded us all how critical it is to get the best number you can. Golf reminded us yesterday that if you are lucky enough to have a good-looking ticket in a futures market you are better off getting 34-1 (at a real book, Pinnacle, not a make-believe number) vs 28-1. There are countless examples of this every week on the PGA Tour. Don’t be mad that Tiger’s odds are so low. Find VALUE somewhere else. Who knows what will happen. That brings us to another element of golf wagering. We always keep some powder dry for in-play wagering should we have some perceived equity with our initial picks. We will definitely be adding a few names to our card tomorrow.
Again, it’s not about this week, but rather about having a good game plan going into every week of the season. In the long run it pays off.
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Talk to you soon.
CHEERS!
MEGA