College Football Predictions – Massachusetts Minutemen 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 4-8
ATS – 6-6
That was quite the finish.
Massachusetts started the campaign with six straight losses but did not quit. They won four of their next five games, and the only setback was a very respectable road loss (34-23) to Mississippi St. The final tilt was a “defense-is-optional” game with FIU in which they lost 63-45. The signature victories were a 2-OT win at home vs scrappy Appalachian St and a road decision over BYU.
The only thing to do now is get back to a bowl game. It’s been a long time between drinks. <more on that below>
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Independents – #3
Massachusetts Minutemen 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Minutemen averaged over 30 points per game last season, and in fact, had BACK-to-BACK JACKS mid-season when they hung half-a-hundy (50 vs Ohio, 55 vs Georgia Southern). It’s not too difficult to score points when you boast one of the more underrated passers in college football. QB Andrew Ford threw for almost 3,000 yards last season and tossed 22 TD passes whilst only being intercepted 4 (!) times in 353 attempts. The senior QB will miss excellent TE Adam Breneman (64 receptions LY) but will be happy to see the top four WRs back including ace Andy Isabella who put up great receiving stats (65-1,020, 15.7, 10 TD) and even rushed for 137 yards (#4 on team). Pass protection needs to improve as they have allowed an unseemly 91 (!!) sacks combined over the past two campaigns. The RB unit brings back everyone and senior Marquis Young could easily bag 1,000 yards. Again, the OL needs to do a better job as UMass has struggled running the football for a long time.
DEFENSE
Massachusetts made some strides last season but still allowed over 400 yards per game. Even so, it was their best performance since 2011 when they allowed just 27.9 PPG (LY 31.8). The Minutemen return six starters this year including #1 tackler LB Bryton Barr and 3/4 to a secondary that played pretty well last season (53.3% #16 FBS). The bad news is that they only bring back a pair of their top-6 tacklers from the 2017 stop unit and lose their excellent DE Da’Sean Downey who was responsible for a ton of their PENETRATION in 2017 (20 TFL; nobody else had double digits). It’s hard to see them holding opponents to under 30 PPG in 2018.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Uh, oh. They move on without reliable P,PK Logan Laurent and were poor in the return game last season. REALLY bad on punt returns. This will likely be a problem area.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Not too bad, but let’s hope they don’t need a win at Georgia on November 17th to achieve bowl eligibility.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Ohio (September 29th). This will be their 4th road game in five weeks and the Bobcats look to be mighty spicy this season. Ohio was given all they could handle last season in a 58-50 (!) victory so it’s hard to see them taking UMass lightly.
Season Win Total
Over 5.5 -120
Under 5.5 +110
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. The only truly MORTAL LOCK LOSS is their game at Georgia. There are other tough games on the docket but the Minutemen have shown they can keep games close vs superior opposition. They should be able to dispose of Duquesne, Charlotte, and Liberty.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Amaze your 2nd Cousin at the next PAINFULLY BORING FAMILY WEDDING with this gem. Massachusetts has only played in two bowl games. The TANGERINE Bowl and something called the Boardwalk Bowl. When they ventured under the Boardwalk, it was back in 1972, and that is the only time they have tasted bowl victory.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the MINUTEMEN a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
These guys will be playing in entertaining games. The offense will be good and just might be REALLY good if the offensive line can do a better job. We worry quite a bit about the defense and it seems as though the Minutemen will be in most of their games BUT never home and cooled. It’s not a hot take to suggest keeping their totals in mind (team total over, game total over) if value is present.
Longtime MEGALOCKS readers know we love to cheer for the smaller programs that have not tasted a lot of success. Last season we were thrilled to see New Mexico St do so well. The year before it was Eastern Michigan. In 2018, we have set our sights on a few teams, and one of them is Massachusetts. It’s not going to be easy to bag six wins but they certainly have the offensive talent to get the job done. Don’t forget that last season they did not lose a game by more than 11 points until the season finale.
Head coach Mark Whipple has compiled a 25-23 record vs the point spread over the past four seasons. The good offense / suspect defense combo is likely to cause headaches for bettors, so we recommend a prudent approach when it comes to backing the Minutemen. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as road dogs. Not saying, just saying.
Want more Massachusetts football ?
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http://www.umassathletics.com/index.aspx?path=football
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NEWS
http://www.masslive.com/umassfootball/
http://bleacherreport.com/umass-football
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