College Football Predictions – Massachusetts Minutemen 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 4-8
ATS – 5-7
The Minutemen struggled to another losing season but there were a couple fun moments along the way. They plastered Duquesne in the season opener (W 63-15), scored 40+ points in back-to-back games vs good competition (at Ohio, USF), and won a thrilling 3-OT game vs Liberty (W 62-59).
New HC Walt Bell takes over the ship and has a long road ahead.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Independents – #6
Massachusetts Minutemen 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
Massachusetts had a lot more talent on offense a season ago than most casual observers realize. QB Ross Comis was very efficient (14-3 TD to INT, 63%) when healthy, RB Marquis Young had another productive season on the ground (791, 9 TD), and WR Andy Isabella was an AA (!) WR that caught 102 balls for almost 1,700 yards and 13 TDs. Isabella was chosen in the 2nd round of the NFL draft (Arizona). With all three of these men gone, what are the prospects for the offense this year?
The battle for the starting QB role won’t be decided until we get into fall camp. It will almost certainly come down to either senior QB Michael Curtis (40 attempts LY) or JC transfer Andrew Brito. It’s tough to know what kind of quality there is in the QB room, but it seems certain that the QB play will not be up to last season’s standards. The RB group is a major worry with the top-two rushers from a season ago no longer with the team. Depth is going to be a problem. There are some talented WRs back for duty but it’s impossible to replace a star like Isabella who finished his career with the Minutemen as their all-time leading receiver. THE HITS KEEP COMING when you reflect upon the offensive line. Only two starters return to an OL that allowed 39 sacks a season ago whilst paving the way for just 140 YPG on the ground.
The Minutemen are going to take a big step backwards on offense (32.8 PPG) and might struggle to average 25 PPG.
DEFENSE
Things don’t look too promising on this side of the ball. The Minutemen were ripped apart by opposing offenses a season ago and yielded 42.9 PPG (#127 FBS). The run defense was especially horrible (276 YPG, #126 FBS) and they only managed to bag 10 sacks in 12 games. Only three starters are back and they will be without their top-two tacklers from the 2018 defense. This is a very young unit overall and hopefully they get solid performances from the few veterans that they have in place. DE Jake Byczko had three sacks LY, LB Chinedu Ogbonna was third on the team in tackles (72, 7 TFL) , and senior CB Isaiah Rodgers is a good piece to build around in the secondary.
New DC Aazaar Abdul-Rahim has a lot of work to do. We project the Minutemen to yield 40+ PPG for the second consecutive year.
SPECIAL TEAMS
PK Cooper Garcia hit 9/11 three-pointers last year but P George Georgoulos need to do a better job (34.7 net, #116 FBS). New return guys need to be found and that includes the aforementioned Isabella on PRs.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – There are quite a few winnable games on the schedule (Southern Illinois, at Charlotte, Akron, UConn, etc.) but it’s unlikely they will be good enough to take advantage on a regular basis.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing stands out.
Season Win Total
Over 3 +105
Under 3 -125
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the ‘under’. They are going to struggle to get to four wins.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Massachusetts is the fourth oldest program in the FBS having begun play in 1879.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Negative
Things were set up pretty well last season with an experienced and high-powered offense but they couldn’t tally more than four wins. Things look scary in the short term with so many new faces and an apparent absence of talent.
We recommend taking a FADE approach with these guys. It may be prudent to get on that train early before the bookmakers get a better read.
Want more Massachusetts football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.umassathletics.com/index.aspx?path=football
FORUM
http://umass.247sports.com/Board/UMass-Message-Board-Forum-59480
NEWS
http://www.masslive.com/umassfootball/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/113/umass-minutemen
http://bleacherreport.com/umass-football
TWITTER
Hashtag – #Flagship
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